01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Solana one-month BF25 drops 1.26 volatility points
Between the October 1 and October 2 snapshots at 16:30 UTC, Solana one-month BF25 declined 1.26 volatility points to 2.63 volatility points, according to Derivasys data. At the October 1 snapshot, Solana one-month BF25 measured 3.89%. The absolute Solana one-month BF25 move ranked at the 100th historical percentile across 35 comparable observations. BF25 measures average 25-delta wing implied volatility minus ATM forward implied volatility, so the decline shows compression in the wings relative to ATM.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
In Solana settlement news, The Defiant reported Fiserv's Roughrider Coin launch. VersaBank issues the bank-only token, which Fiserv says serves a North Dakota network of more than 90 banks and credit unions. This provides adoption context, but the retrieved reporting does not establish a link to the butterfly adjustment.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
3 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -1.19 volatility points, to 54.11%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
01 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC to 02 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the SOL volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.41 volatility points to 53.82% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.55 volatility points to 2.34 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -1.07 volatility points to 2.24 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.19 volatility points at 2W, to 54.11%.
Universe roll: added 4OCT26; removed 2OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.