Daily SOL options market report · 24-hour comparison
Solana options: SOL spot index drops 7.23% over 24 hours
SOL's spot index fell 7.23% over 24 hours to the October 8 cutoff, alongside an uneven options repricing. Solana 1W ATM implied volatility increased 5.45 volatility points to 57.54%, while 2W and 1M ATM volatility edged lower. The 2W call-minus-put skew crossed below zero; ecosystem announcements provide context without an established causal link.
Combined surface read: ATM IV rose (SOL); RR25 moved toward puts (SOL); BF25 wing premium decreased (SOL); 1W IV was above 7D RV (SOL).
01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · Options
The day in markets.
Solana options: SOL spot index drops 7.23% over 24 hours
Solana's spot-index return measured -7.23% over 24 hours between October 7 and October 8 at 16:32 UTC. Its absolute magnitude ranked at the 94.9 percentile across 59 matching daily endpoint returns reconstructed from stored prices spanning August 9 to October 7. Across the same snapshot comparison, 1W ATM IV rose from 52.09% to 57.54%, but 2W ATM IV fell 0.09 volatility points to 50.79% and 1M ATM IV declined 0.30 points to 50.46%. The increase was concentrated at 1W.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
The [Solana Foundation](https://solana.com/news/samsung-wallet) announced Samsung Wallet USDC transfers beginning in the last week of October, a future rollout. [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/08/securitize-brings-apple-nvidia-and-tesla-to-solana-with-nyse-trading-in-the-works) reported Securitize's launch of tokenized Apple, Nvidia and Tesla stocks on Solana, with NYSE trading still planned. [The Block](https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-10-07-solanas-orca-merges-with-loopscale-push-to-finance-ai-robotics-defense-417924) reported the Orca–Loopscale merger and ambitions to finance AI, robotics and defence; that account remains developing single-source reporting. These developments provide a relevant business backdrop, but no clear measured link explains the spot decline or options changes.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
3 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +5.45 volatility points, to 57.54%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
07 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC to 08 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
Confidencelow causal confidence
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the SOL volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 16:32 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 57.54%, 11.53 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 46.01%; 24-hour realised volatility was 60.52% and 30-day realised volatility was 56.47%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.69 volatility points to 52.93% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.68 volatility points to 0.06 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 3.68 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +5.45 volatility points at 1W, to 57.54%.
24h spot-index return
SOL spot-index return was -7.23% over 24 hours.
7d spot-index return
SOL spot-index return was -7.64% over seven days.
Universe roll: added 10OCT26, 23OCT26, 27NOV26; removed 8OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.68 volatility points to 0.06 volatility points across the three available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 3.68 volatility points across the three available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.6d
Smile rotation
9OCT26, -32.35 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 3M, 6M, 9M, 1Y.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
9OCT26Expiry effect
0.6 days
108.32
-8.76 USD
75.11%
+23.77 vol pts
-6.73 vol pts
-1.13 vol pts
16OCT26
7.6 days
108.45
-8.76 USD
57.26%
+5.13 vol pts
-0.90 vol pts
-0.10 vol pts
30OCT26
21.6 days
108.57
-8.76 USD
49.94%
-0.15 vol pts
-1.58 vol pts
+0.12 vol pts
25DEC26
77.6 days
108.91
-8.83 USD
50.98%
-1.02 vol pts
+0.01 vol pts
+0.49 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
9OCT26rotation towards puts · wing flattening16OCT26parallel shift higher · rotation towards puts · wing flattening30OCT26rotation towards puts25DEC26parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
9OCT26
16OCT26
30OCT26
25DEC26
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against US equity risk.
SOL 30-day implied volatility was 3.4 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.58.
Implied-volatility premium
SOL 30-day ATM IV was 51.17%, against VIX at 15.08: a 36.09-point spread and 3.39× ratio.
Daily-close realised-volatility regime
SOL 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 70.90%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 10.24%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 48.4% of 244 prior observations.
This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.579 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.363 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.78, 15.08 and 17.72.
As of 07 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.
Evidence and methodology
Derivasys persisted market_context_latest schemaVersion=1. Crypto ATM IV: 30 calendar-day fixed tenor nearest the US close, ACT/365 implied-volatility convention, source Derivasys 30-day fixed-tenor surface. VIX-family levels: completed US cash-session close, sources ^VIX/^VIX9D/^VIX3M. IV spread=crypto ATM IV minus VIX in volatility_points; IV ratio=crypto ATM IV divided by VIX. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365), source Derivasys canonical crypto index; SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252), source ^GSPC. RV spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient over 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only, units percentile_rank. Alignment tolerance=600 seconds. The report's corrected one-minute realised-volatility windows use observed one-minute returns; these cross-asset measurements use completed-session daily closes. Returned freshness is fresh, ageSeconds=73920, evaluatedAt=2026-10-08T16:32:00Z; preserved as returned.
RV observation windows and sampling
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-07 16:32:00 UTC → 2026-10-08 16:32:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Original report summary
SOL's spot index fell 7.23% over 24 hours to the October 8 cutoff, alongside an uneven options repricing. Solana 1W ATM implied volatility increased 5.45 volatility points to 57.54%, while 2W and 1M ATM volatility edged lower. The 2W call-minus-put skew crossed below zero; ecosystem announcements provide context without an established causal link.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: SOL 1W ATM IV 57.54% · Δ +5.45 vol pts
Skew: SOL 1W RR25 -0.25 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol pts
Relative value: SOL 1W IV 57.54% / 7D RV 46.01% · spread +11.53 vol pts
Vol
SOL 1W ATM IV 57.54% · Δ +5.45 vol ptspercentile rank 78.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
Skew
SOL 1W RR25 -0.25 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol ptspercentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Wings
SOL 1W BF25 3.53 vol pts · Δ -0.09 vol ptspercentile rank 14.6% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
IV versus RV
SOL 1W IV 57.54% / 7D RV 46.01% · spread +11.53 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Historical move evidence
SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 78.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 14.6% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 16OCT26; the largest sigma change occurred at 25DEC26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
9OCT26
+0.02680
-0.06650
+0.02340
+0.05080
+0.07750
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
16OCT26
-0.01960
+0.00720
+0.12540
+0.08240
+0.09340
parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts, wing flattening
30OCT26
-0.01040
+0.00890
+0.09370
+0.07180
+0.02240
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.04320
-0.01080
-0.11100
-0.08190
-0.15750
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-SOL ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
SOL · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical SOL index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical SOL-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
