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Solana options: 1m RR25 drops 2.55 volatility points as positive call skew narrows

Name: SOL options surface changes for 2026-10-12
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

SOL 1M RR25 fell 2.55 vol points to 1.26 vol points over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 12 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC · Snapshot 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

Snapshot · 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

SOLSpot-index 24h -2.66%1W ATM IV 46.88%1W RR25 +0.48 vol pts1W BF25 +3.22 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -0.72 vol pts

SOL1W ATM IV 46.88%1M RR25 Δ -2.55 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

SOLSpot-index 24h -2.66%1W ATM IV 46.88%1W RR25 +0.48 vol pts1W BF25 +3.22 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -0.72 vol pts

Notable move: SOL 1M RR25 Δ -2.55 vol pts → +1.26 vol pts · percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-11.

Solana options: 1m RR25 drops 2.55 volatility points as positive call skew narrows. RR25 term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. RR25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

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Chart reading: SOL -2.55 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: Positive RR25 places call-wing IV above put-wing IV; negative RR25 places put-wing IV above call-wing IV.
Next watch: Watch whether 1M RR25 extends or reverses this move at the next daily comparison.
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (SOL); RR25 moved toward calls (SOL); BF25 wing premium increased (SOL); 1W IV was below 7D RV (SOL).

Measurement and history provenance

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
SOL 1W atmIv	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f489449a761dbd44082784f48a7446115f4a0b68ec68a1595d43cc6a8c74b782`
SOL 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:47a68038a264ee66b0da8d403c587d0b4b96511e6ef3127937af2be8d7d59ef5`
SOL 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f9aedaa157df58904b60e9ecd5b3a6658c785a4d531121dc63b8d5625144614a`
SOL 1W rr25	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1cd6df31b4701678ad9a6b6adbf78dd2816bb3e01325024f4ee346105bcd78eb`
SOL 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1e7fc27b05ce7022320bc32e30f82ca893807d04eba1556a10551f44cd10a360`
SOL 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e1a26ea9924d57964fa584beb0be8dc44cf969550bffadb9cd997d14076a0376`
SOL 1W bf25	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c31e055ea9d22a8da17363b61d22d7bed6baa9211b141bb4d678e3881373b217`
SOL 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4bdca3218876e92d87d42fda70b73f02d7758ec1b880834024a245e7c28e204f`
SOL 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:742936fb41674d3d2f06deac173c0a075de6fe651c19d7abdda04d4650911e72`
SOL 2W atmIv	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f60597697c212d233d2c34b9c6623ec917add58b7141d8a7fc6e4451169f21e7`
SOL 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:288046207fda1c9f92ea46a4050cbf629c3e34b5d5c769ab6456f90e9abb2647`
SOL 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a2031fde27250e21d2bebdc70fc12d422846cb796c0685089664160f1022eabf`
SOL 2W rr25	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:65448182c4933cbc32df5f9d35096c81ca5ecb7d530dd66ed86bedf78fa8956b`
SOL 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:581fed06e50dd4439b15db68601bbd8b70d152447feeaeaa9186f62a74a6b3c9`
SOL 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1750c249824e2bed0e598f287bc201de82de3fce14a24abaf4cb4ad846f63dd5`
SOL 2W bf25	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9e27dee16c41de90f18cf74caa5b24b7dfb3c14f67e8741d9c9052c4afe687ee`
SOL 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7cc52fecd7d0eeb4efc9366289b94bbce095158bcd51a242e7e952724b7aaefb`
SOL 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6867f484fbb56effdf2fae293d1dee0705ac7e4e6910684613d4e5291f46dcb7`
SOL 1M atmIv	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1248e303015f69edd8d81e8ab4150c036ec975f5bdc0c16720b2d6301bdadb74`
SOL 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ee96ec8cfd7c9f8f8544b4efabdd7fb5ef97aaf022f7802c7a09a936a8adde86`
SOL 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:dc12596e28af551e5027428827094dfaee4e8159d56c0a2402c9eea08caaff30`
SOL 1M rr25	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:42c0d2892e19ef096638140a31bf301b5886e49475e42af4e743804bb0a2612a`
SOL 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d9ffc198bfb45e4b62bf528dd5f9e74cef062a6bb697668c66023f803afc834c`
SOL 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:93c37dc34430b3e3c3d8be123aad503634419ce5ee5c5419e148851da9acaf9c`
SOL 1M bf25	move30d	30 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7dca61be720cb33539edf2a5e17b5922cd2aaee37c1d39de48dd1ff2dacccfe2`
SOL 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4901317f2d032b5906ae66fc140b38d33ecfd666f90ff3bb9cf6db32476d33be`
SOL 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	45 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-10-11 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-11T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7ee2ff31617420c9e83d758b26cd9818f6a2844ad5ef788bf187212daf8d4066`
SOL 3M atmIv	move30d	13 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-09-24 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f6b5fa574ba3d3ab072d0f2881980c3a7c9f56dad90a337c9a28dff13b72f27b`
SOL 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	27 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-09-24 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4a2995ada9e889e835fd3e403c20023f88e5d79f20552dc70ed24e8410e6692e`
SOL 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	28 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-09-24 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:28821aa30cfd9fcc3e69e129f863ac8e0aa4834be077e5e0ab69826d2e9c3afc`
SOL 3M rr25	move30d	13 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-09-24 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d6583a58e1dc70242199a84e6fe4d1a04415748b99d29ba683539964d76af803`
SOL 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	27 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-09-24 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1fa0fc6d2d0f46fb3f92e1000c6a1ff88a4c4d58902c4b9c8590064c444379d5`
SOL 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	28 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-09-24 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6a63ee148592145a0cee4f4e31c7e859f003236ff564472a0b995beb208b5208`
SOL 3M bf25	move30d	13 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-11 → 2026-09-24 2026-09-11T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:482d46e4d94c135ead33cabe5855a1f78bcede6c7bcc9f0ee6cdad9df847515e`
SOL 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	27 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-09-24 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2055e38752a4969d3e1b27aadeebc4fab00531e526029ed32e5db396d97c5c0b`
SOL 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	28 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-28 → 2026-09-24 2026-08-28T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T23:59:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:685925ed091ee98c0b784f5311fa965b24c84890bf49600322644abb20a08128`
SOL 6M atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
SOL 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

The day in markets.

Monday 12 October

Solana options: 1M RR25 drops 2.55 volatility points as positive call skew narrows

Solana's 1M RR25 narrowed to +1.26 volatility points at October 12's 16:30 UTC cutoff, down 2.55 volatility points from +3.81 at the prior day's cutoff, according to Derivasys data. The absolute daily Solana 1M RR25 change equalled or exceeded all 30 matching prior moves observed from September 11 through October 11, 2026. The positive reading still indicates higher 25-delta call IV than put IV; the shift toward puts does not establish an absolute increase in put IV.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

The Defiant reported [Pando's planned October 13 Hong Kong listing for a spot Solana ETF](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/pando-sets-oct-13-hong-kong-listing-for-spot-solana-etf), [USDGO's Solana liquidity activity and planned lending markets](https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/usdgo-adds-solana-trading-liquidity-through-jupiter-lend-and-fluid), and [SkyAI's sale of half its SOL treasury with a proposed $201 million cash buyback](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/skyai-sells-half-its-sol-treasury-plans-201-million-cash-buyback). These developing, single-source reports remain provisional context: the ETF listing and buyback were plans at the cutoff, and no clear measured link connects the news to the options changes.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

3 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -4.01 volatility points, to 46.88%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
USDGO Adds Solana Trading Liquidity Through Jupiter Lend and FluidThe Defiant · 14:13 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -2.90 USD (-2.59%) to 108.91 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 16OCT26: -2.90 USD (-2.59%) to 108.91 USD
02
Pando Sets Oct. 13 Hong Kong Listing for Spot Solana ETFThe Defiant · 15:23 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -2.90 USD (-2.59%) to 108.91 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 16OCT26: -2.90 USD (-2.59%) to 108.91 USD
03
SkyAI Sells Half Its SOL Treasury, Plans $201 Million Cash BuybackThe Defiant · 15:23 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: -2.90 USD (-2.59%) to 108.91 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 16OCT26: -2.90 USD (-2.59%) to 108.91 USD

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the SOL volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 46.88%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 47.60%; 24-hour realised volatility was 51.59% and 30-day realised volatility was 55.23%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.90 volatility points to 49.15% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.89 volatility points to 0.80 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.29 volatility points to 3.60 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -4.01 volatility points at 1W, to 46.88%.

24h spot-index return

SOL spot-index return was -2.66% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

SOL spot-index return was -8.53% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 14OCT26; removed 12OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

30OCT26, -6.37 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -4.01 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1M, -2.55 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, -1.07 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

25DEC26, +0.2887 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

23OCT26, -0.1685 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	46.88	50.89	-4.01 vol pts	-7.88%
2W	49.01	51.94	-2.93 vol pts	-5.64%
1M	51.57	53.32	-1.75 vol pts	-3.28%
3M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
6M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
9M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1M.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.89 volatility points to 0.80 volatility points across the three available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	0.48	-0.97	+1.45 vol pts
2W	0.66	2.23	-1.57 vol pts
1M	1.26	3.81	-2.55 vol pts
3M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
6M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
9M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.29 volatility points to 3.60 volatility points across the three available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	3.22	2.89	+0.33 vol pts
2W	3.54	3.67	-0.13 vol pts
1M	4.04	5.11	-1.07 vol pts
3M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
6M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
9M	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

13OCT26, -4.16 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 3M, 6M, 9M, 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
13OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	108.82	-2.99 USD	46.68%	-4.16 vol pts	+1.95 vol pts	-1.13 vol pts
16OCT26	3.6 days	108.91	-2.90 USD	44.42%	-5.47 vol pts	+1.53 vol pts	+0.03 vol pts
23OCT26	10.6 days	109	-2.86 USD	47.77%	-3.89 vol pts	+0.85 vol pts	+0.37 vol pts
30OCT26	17.6 days	109.06	-2.87 USD	49.81%	-2.48 vol pts	-4.33 vol pts	-0.79 vol pts
27NOV26	45.6 days	109.24	-2.92 USD	52.41%	-1.51 vol pts	-1.63 vol pts	-1.25 vol pts
25DEC26	73.6 days	109.38	-2.89 USD	53.19%	+0.34 vol pts	-1.33 vol pts	-1.29 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

13OCT26rotation towards puts · wing flattening

16OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards puts

27NOV26rotation towards puts

25DEC26rotation towards puts

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

13OCT26

16OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

27NOV26

25DEC26

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

SOL 30-day implied volatility was 3.3 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.57.

Implied-volatility premium

SOL 30-day ATM IV was 49.58%, against VIX at 14.84: a 34.74-point spread and 3.34× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

SOL 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 54.58%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 9.93%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 35.8% of 246 prior observations.

This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.567 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.364 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.26, 14.84 and 17.77.

As of 09 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1. Derivasys 30-calendar-day fixed-tenor ATM IV uses ACT/365 implied-volatility convention. VIX-family closes come from yahoo_finance (^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M); SPX RV comes from ^GSPC. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252). RV spread and ratio retain these mixed annualisation bases. Correlations use 30 or 60 aligned US-session daily returns. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations. Alignment tolerance 600 seconds; crypto snapshot and benchmark timestamps both 2026-10-09T20:00:00Z. Ingested at 2026-10-09T22:30:50.075467Z.

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-11 16:30:00 UTC → 2026-10-12 16:30:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

SOL 1M RR25 1.26 vol pts · Δ -2.55 vol pts

SOL percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-11

Original report summary

Solana's 1M call-minus-put RR25 declined 2.55 volatility points from +3.81 to +1.26 between the October 11 and October 12 cutoffs at 16:30 UTC. Calls retained a positive volatility advantage over puts. The absolute daily skew adjustment matched or exceeded all 30 prior comparable moves in the supplied September 11–October 11 history, alongside declines in front-end ATM implied volatility.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: SOL 1W ATM IV 46.88% · Δ -4.01 vol pts

Skew: SOL 1W RR25 0.48 vol pts · Δ +1.45 vol pts

Relative value: SOL 1W IV 46.88% / 7D RV 47.60% · spread -0.72 vol pts

Vol

SOL 1W ATM IV 46.88% · Δ -4.01 vol ptspercentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · full history (n=44); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-28 to 2026-10-11

Skew

SOL 1W RR25 0.48 vol pts · Δ +1.45 vol ptspercentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-11

Wings

SOL 1W BF25 3.22 vol pts · Δ +0.33 vol ptspercentile rank 40.9% by absolute move · full history (n=44); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-28 to 2026-10-11

IV versus RV

SOL 1W IV 46.88% / 7D RV 47.60% · spread -0.72 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · full history (n=44); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-28 to 2026-10-11

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-11

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 40.9% by absolute move · full history (n=44); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-28 to 2026-10-11

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 23OCT26; the largest sigma change occurred at 25DEC26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
13OCT26	+0.03670	-0.07180	+0.09070	-0.01270	+0.61210	rotation towards puts, wing flattening
16OCT26	+0.02570	-0.01750	-0.03830	-0.02830	-0.13590	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
23OCT26	+0.01720	+0.00430	-0.16850	-0.08130	-0.13100	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26	-0.01230	+0.00470	-0.08560	-0.01230	+0.06150	rotation towards puts
27NOV26	-0.02840	+0.00630	-0.16370	-0.07160	+0.11660	rotation towards puts
25DEC26	-0.10820	+0.04360	-0.08310	-0.05700	+0.28870	rotation towards puts

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-SOL ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Vega25DEC26, 0.194615 USD / vol pt

Highest Gamma13OCT26, 0.186672 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay13OCT26, -0.659834 USD / day

Highest Vanna25DEC26, 0.00089 delta / vol pt

Highest Volga25DEC26, -0.000052 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
SOL	47.60%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

SOL · Available · Surface cutoff 12 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical SOL index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical SOL-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Live dashboard All reports Daily metrics data Latest SOL daily Latest weekly API Volatility surface guide What is SVI? Risk reversals Butterflies Local volatility Variance swaps

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the SOL volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1M.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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