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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

BTC weekly surface: 1W ATM IV rises 1.70 volatility points

Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.61 volatility points, RR25 +0.62 volatility points and BF25 +0.16 volatility points between the stored endpoints.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Generated · Window 17 Jul 2026–24 Jul 2026

No validated 7D spot-index returns are available; displayed spot-index returns remain 24h. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 24 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC

Generated timestamp:

  • BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 34.18%1W RR25 -1.63 vol pts1W BF25 +1.83 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable

Market context · weekly observation window

Market context

BTC spot-index return unavailable; 1W ATM IV rose 1.70 volatility points to 34.18% over the weekly window. RR25 moved toward calls (+0.30 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.24 points); partial native coverage (3/4 measurements).

Previous report, watch levels and methodology

One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 17 Jul, 23:59 UTC to 24 Jul, 23:59 UTC.

Measured change since prior report

Prior comparison unavailable: the exact adjacent published edition could not be verified.

A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.

Next weekly cutoff: measurable checks

These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 34.18 percent at . Current level 34.18; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 32.48 percent at . Current level 34.18; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 775c1ab9ba54e6823cde5f35e14556b222d12f82c0ca999e6ea7712b17756fd5

Consumed endpoint proof: f5bdc8b58eb96f8ef0693f0400d3a6713dcc3d81564b8a56e6218d30e21ee672

  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-07-24T23:59:00+00:00 to 2026-07-31T23:59:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-07-24T23:59:00+00:00 to 2026-07-31T23:59:00+00:00.

Lead chart

BTC ATM implied-volatility term structure

31.3%34.4%37.5%40.6%43.7%1W2W1M3M6M9M1Y

Week-end surface snapshot against the week-opening comparison snapshot.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +1.70 volatility points, to 34.18%.

03 · Catalyst check

News context unavailable.

News context was not collected.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.97 volatility points to 34.41% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to 41.55% across 6M and 1Y.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.62 volatility points to -3.73 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 2.42 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.70 volatility points at 1W.

Weekly universe roll: added 14AUG26, 25JUL26, 26JUL26, 27JUL26, 28JUL26; removed 18JUL26, 19JUL26, 20JUL26, 21JUL26, 24JUL26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

7AUG26, +3.63 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +1.70 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

3M, +0.89 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, +0.42 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

28AUG26, -0.1418 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

26MAR27, -0.0806 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W34.1832.48+1.70 vol pts+5.23%
2W34.2433.72+0.52 vol pts+1.54%
1M34.8134.12+0.69 vol pts+2.02%
3M38.2937.60+0.69 vol pts+1.84%
6M40.6240.47+0.15 vol pts+0.37%
9M41.7041.65+0.05 vol pts+0.12%
1Y42.4742.53-0.06 vol pts-0.14%

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

RR25 · 07-20 to 07-21

1W, +2.31 vol pts
02

RR25 · 07-20 to 07-21

2W, +2.14 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 07-23 to 07-24

2W, -2.08 vol pts
04

RR25 · 07-20 to 07-21

1M, +1.93 vol pts
05

ATM IV · 07-23 to 07-24

1W, -1.83 vol pts
06

ATM IV · 07-23 to 07-24

1M, -1.22 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W32.48%36.01%3.53 vol pts2.92 vol pts0.38 vol pts
2W33.72%36.32%2.60 vol pts2.93 vol pts0.77 vol pts
1M33.73%36.03%2.30 vol pts2.26 vol pts0.48 vol pts
3M37.13%38.59%1.46 vol pts1.72 vol pts0.19 vol pts
6M40.09%40.84%0.75 vol pts1.25 vol pts0.11 vol pts
9M41.36%41.85%0.49 vol pts0.90 vol pts0.11 vol pts
1Y42.26%42.61%0.35 vol pts0.92 vol pts0.25 vol pts

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.62 volatility points to -3.73 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 3M. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W-1.63-1.93+0.30 vol pts
2W-2.42-3.08+0.66 vol pts
1M-4.22-4.50+0.28 vol pts
3M-4.78-5.67+0.89 vol pts
6M-4.92-5.73+0.81 vol pts
9M-4.78-5.56+0.78 vol pts
1Y-4.43-5.22+0.79 vol pts

BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 2.42 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1M.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.831.59+0.24 vol pts
2W2.141.74+0.40 vol pts
1M2.582.16+0.42 vol pts
3M2.762.67+0.09 vol pts
6M2.762.75+0.01 vol pts
9M2.662.72-0.06 vol pts
1Y2.452.64-0.19 vol pts

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
31JUL266.3 days64,143.27+178.86 USD34.17%+0.49 vol pts+1.40 vol pts+0.04 vol pts
7AUG2613.3 days64,193.31+178.51 USD34.21%+0.26 vol pts+1.96 vol pts+0.26 vol pts
28AUG2634.3 days64,342.53+167.76 USD34.91%+0.69 vol pts+0.39 vol pts+0.31 vol pts
25SEP2662.3 days64,544.51+166.13 USD36.16%+0.42 vol pts+0.96 vol pts+0.14 vol pts
25DEC26153.3 days65,210.42+208.35 USD40.08%+0.05 vol pts+0.86 vol pts+0.02 vol pts
26MAR27244.3 days65,860.67+130.87 USD41.34%-0.01 vol pts+0.73 vol pts+0.01 vol pts
25JUN27335.3 days66,499.56+62.94 USD42.27%-0.09 vol pts+0.77 vol pts-0.15 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

31JUL26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
7AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
28AUG26wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25SEP26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Original report summary

Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.61 volatility points, RR25 +0.62 volatility points and BF25 +0.16 volatility points between the stored endpoints.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-07-17 23:59:00 UTC → 2026-07-24 23:59:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
31JUL26-0.02600+0.01880+0.00440-0.02500+0.06520rotation towards calls, wing steepening
7AUG26+0.00830+0.00220-0.10160-0.11140-0.07040rotation towards calls, wing steepening
28AUG26-0.00500+0.00720-0.14180-0.10000-0.00310wing steepening
25SEP26-0.00440+0.01050-0.13910-0.12880-0.00330rotation towards calls
25DEC26+0.01410+0.00750-0.10350-0.12960-0.04720rotation towards calls
26MAR27+0.03050+0.00650-0.08380-0.11740-0.08060limited movement
25JUN27+0.01750+0.01520-0.07730-0.15390-0.03830parallel shift lower

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTCUnavailableUnavailablenot recorded / not recorded requirednot recorded / not recorded maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 24 Jul 2026, 23:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
24 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
17 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
No daily report input list was recorded in this edition.
Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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