01 · Market Read
The session in context.
2W RR25 moved 3.74 volatility points toward puts to -4.70%, leaving puts richer than calls; this was a large move at the 93rd percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 35.10%, -0.11 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.34%, -0.28 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 0.53 points to 6.79 points. 2W ATM IV fell 0.36 volatility points to 34.96%. 1W BF25 rose 0.55 volatility points to 2.33%. The nearest eligible forward, 31JUL26, fell $2,444.34 (-3.68%) to $63,977.12. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has medium causal confidence.
94 words · Deterministic structured report facts02 · Relevant Market Context
21 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC to 28 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
312 feed articles scanned across 13 feeds and 13 publishers. 107 fell inside the report window; 23 passed source relevance rules; 5 passed the final threshold; 2 events displayed.
03 · Weekly summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.11 volatility points to 35.10% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.28 volatility points to 41.34% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.72 volatility points to -4.47% across the six headline tenors.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.14 volatility points to 2.53% across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.36 volatility points at 2W, to 34.96%.
Weekly universe roll: added 14AUG26, 1AUG26, 29JUL26, 30JUL26; removed 22JUL26, 23JUL26, 24JUL26, 25JUL26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.
04 · Seven-day ranking
Largest weekly surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
31JUL26, -9.87 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, -3.74 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, +0.55 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
2W, -0.36 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI rho move
25JUN27, +0.1455 paramLargest eligible SVI sigma move
7AUG26, -0.1080 param05 · ATM volatility
Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 35.50 | 35.24 | +0.26 vol pts | +0.74% |
| 2W | 34.96 | 35.32 | -0.36 vol pts | -1.02% |
| 1M | 34.83 | 35.06 | -0.23 vol pts | -0.66% |
| 3M | 38.30 | 37.99 | +0.31 vol pts | +0.82% |
| 6M | 40.39 | 40.68 | -0.29 vol pts | -0.71% |
| 9M | 41.51 | 41.75 | -0.24 vol pts | -0.57% |
| 1Y | 42.29 | 42.56 | -0.27 vol pts | -0.63% |
06 · During the week
Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.
The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.
ATM IV · 07-23 to 07-24
2W, -2.08 vol ptsATM IV · 07-23 to 07-24
1W, -1.83 vol ptsATM IV · 07-24 to 07-25
1W, +1.81 vol ptsRR25 · 07-24 to 07-25
1W, -1.69 vol ptsRR25 · 07-24 to 07-25
2W, -1.58 vol ptsATM IV · 07-24 to 07-25
2W, +1.28 vol pts| Tenor | ATM IV low | ATM IV high | ATM IV range | RR25 range | BF25 range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 34.18% | 36.21% | 2.03 vol pts | 3.49 vol pts | 0.56 vol pts |
| 2W | 34.24% | 36.32% | 2.08 vol pts | 3.66 vol pts | 0.43 vol pts |
| 1M | 34.81% | 36.03% | 1.22 vol pts | 2.93 vol pts | 0.22 vol pts |
| 3M | 37.91% | 38.70% | 0.79 vol pts | 0.88 vol pts | 0.11 vol pts |
| 6M | 40.39% | 40.84% | 0.45 vol pts | 0.49 vol pts | 0.14 vol pts |
| 9M | 41.51% | 41.85% | 0.34 vol pts | 0.52 vol pts | 0.20 vol pts |
| 1Y | 42.27% | 42.61% | 0.34 vol pts | 0.84 vol pts | 0.25 vol pts |
07 · Skew and convexity
RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.72 volatility points to -4.47% across the six headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -3.65 | 0.04 | -3.69 vol pts |
| 2W | -4.70 | -0.96 | -3.74 vol pts |
| 1M | -5.36 | -2.28 | -3.08 vol pts |
| 3M | -4.77 | -4.09 | -0.68 vol pts |
| 6M | -4.43 | -4.61 | +0.18 vol pts |
| 9M | -4.26 | -4.67 | +0.41 vol pts |
| 1Y | -3.89 | -4.61 | +0.72 vol pts |
BF25 increased, averaging +0.14 volatility points to 2.53% across the six headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1W.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 2.33 | 1.78 | +0.55 vol pts |
| 2W | 2.36 | 2.00 | +0.36 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.46 | 2.46 | 0.00 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.67 | 2.75 | -0.08 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.71 | 2.77 | -0.06 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.68 | 2.69 | -0.01 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.63 | 2.57 | +0.06 vol pts |
08 · Listed expiries
Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward end (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV end | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31JUL26 | 2.4 days | 63,977.12 | -2444.34 USD | 38.53% | +2.87 vol pts | -2.74 vol pts | +0.32 vol pts |
| 7AUG26 | 9.4 days | 64,028.88 | -2448.99 USD | 35.11% | -0.10 vol pts | -2.37 vol pts | +0.33 vol pts |
| 28AUG26 | 30.4 days | 64,184.58 | -2454.10 USD | 34.83% | -0.20 vol pts | -2.84 vol pts | -0.08 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 58.4 days | 64,396.33 | -2458.83 USD | 36.11% | +0.31 vol pts | -1.74 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 149.4 days | 65,038.8 | -2491.12 USD | 39.76% | -0.45 vol pts | +0.16 vol pts | -0.10 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 240.4 days | 65,689.51 | -2554.73 USD | 41.09% | -0.33 vol pts | +0.22 vol pts | -0.04 vol pts |
| 25JUN27 | 331.4 days | 66,340.41 | -2605.19 USD | 42.06% | -0.31 vol pts | +0.62 vol pts | +0.04 vol pts |
06 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.
Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.
Weekly surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.
07 · SVI diagnostics
Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31JUL26 | +0.01000 | -0.01050 | +0.10020 | +0.08280 | -0.05660 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 7AUG26 | +0.01920 | -0.01010 | +0.11240 | +0.07800 | -0.10800 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 28AUG26 | +0.00720 | -0.01040 | +0.11170 | +0.09390 | -0.03120 | rotation towards puts |
| 25SEP26 | +0.00370 | -0.01220 | +0.09780 | +0.09530 | -0.00470 | rotation towards puts |
| 25DEC26 | -0.03010 | +0.01330 | +0.00560 | -0.02770 | +0.05570 | parallel shift lower |
| 26MAR27 | -0.00900 | -0.03220 | +0.09760 | +0.10990 | +0.03860 | parallel shift lower |
| 25JUN27 | +0.03350 | -0.07820 | +0.14550 | +0.22040 | -0.02030 | parallel shift lower |
08 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from Derivasys surface data only.
- Week-end snapshot
- 28 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC
- Week-opening snapshot
- 21 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC
- Comparison
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Snapshot selection
- The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
- Calculations and commentary
- Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Causal claims
- The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.
This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.
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