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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

BTC weekly surface: 2W ATM IV falls 0.36 volatility points

BTC · weekly · 2026-07-28 options surface report, with standard-tenor volatility, skew and wing observations.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Generated · Window 21 Jul 2026–28 Jul 2026

No validated 7D spot-index returns are available; displayed spot-index returns remain 24h. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 28 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC

Generated timestamp:

  • BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 35.50%1W RR25 -3.65 vol pts1W BF25 Unavailable1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable

Market context · weekly observation window

Market context

BTC spot-index return unavailable; 1W ATM IV rose 0.26 volatility points to 35.50% over the weekly window. RR25 moved toward puts (-3.69 points); partial native coverage (3/4 measurements).

Previous report, watch levels and methodology

One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 21 Jul, 21:51 UTC to 28 Jul, 21:51 UTC.

Measured change since prior report

Prior comparison unavailable: the exact adjacent published edition could not be verified.

A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.

Next weekly cutoff: measurable checks

These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 35.50 percent at . Current level 35.50; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 35.24 percent at . Current level 35.50; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.

Original legacy edition JSON · SHA-256 069bcb53b380e113cd3ed0f5c7fe19175b9635c881ef415196641edb55078188

Consumed endpoint proof: c23094db7bba085dc0e13ba68d36483c718dc50c3c31f101e95ea8ab449589f4

  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-07-28T21:51:00+00:00 to 2026-08-04T21:51:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-07-28T21:51:00+00:00 to 2026-08-04T21:51:00+00:00.

Lead chart

BTC ATM implied-volatility term structure

33.9%36.3%38.7%41.1%43.5%1W2W1M3M6M9M1Y

Week-end surface snapshot against the week-opening comparison snapshot.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

No headline tenor had comparable observations at both endpoints; unavailable values remain suppressed in the tables and charts.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

21 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC to 28 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.

Long end

Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.

Skew

RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.36 volatility points at 2W, to 34.96%.

Weekly universe roll: added 14AUG26, 1AUG26, 29JUL26, 30JUL26; removed 22JUL26, 23JUL26, 24JUL26, 25JUL26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

31JUL26, -9.87 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, -3.74 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, -0.36 vol pts
04

Largest eligible SVI rho move

25JUN27, +0.1455 param
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

7AUG26, -0.1080 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W35.5035.24+0.26 vol pts+0.74%
2W34.9635.32-0.36 vol pts-1.02%
1M34.8335.06-0.23 vol pts-0.66%
3M38.3037.99+0.31 vol pts+0.82%
6M40.3940.68-0.29 vol pts-0.71%
9M41.5141.75-0.24 vol pts-0.57%
1Y42.2942.56-0.27 vol pts-0.63%

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 07-23 to 07-24

2W, -2.08 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 07-23 to 07-24

1W, -1.83 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 07-24 to 07-25

1W, +1.81 vol pts
04

RR25 · 07-24 to 07-25

1W, -1.69 vol pts
05

RR25 · 07-24 to 07-25

2W, -1.58 vol pts
06

ATM IV · 07-24 to 07-25

2W, +1.28 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W34.18%36.21%2.03 vol pts3.49 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
2W34.24%36.32%2.08 vol pts3.66 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
1M34.81%36.03%1.22 vol pts2.93 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
3M37.91%38.70%0.79 vol pts0.88 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
6M40.39%40.84%0.45 vol pts0.49 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
9M41.51%41.85%0.34 vol pts0.52 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
1Y42.27%42.61%0.34 vol pts0.84 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W-3.650.04-3.69 vol pts
2W-4.70-0.96-3.74 vol pts
1M-5.36-2.28-3.08 vol pts
3M-4.77-4.09-0.68 vol pts
6M-4.43-4.61+0.18 vol pts
9M-4.26-4.67+0.41 vol pts
1Y-3.89-4.61+0.72 vol pts

BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1WUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
2WUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
1MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
6MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
9MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
31JUL262.4 days63,977.12-2444.34 USD38.53%+2.87 vol pts-2.74 vol ptsUnavailable
7AUG269.4 days64,028.88-2448.99 USD35.11%-0.10 vol pts-2.37 vol ptsUnavailable
28AUG2630.4 days64,184.58-2454.10 USD34.83%-0.20 vol pts-2.84 vol ptsUnavailable
25SEP2658.4 days64,396.33-2458.83 USD36.11%+0.31 vol pts-1.74 vol ptsUnavailable
25DEC26149.4 days65,038.8-2491.12 USD39.76%-0.45 vol pts+0.16 vol ptsUnavailable
26MAR27240.4 days65,689.51-2554.73 USD41.09%-0.33 vol pts+0.22 vol ptsUnavailable
25JUN27331.4 days66,340.41-2605.19 USD42.06%-0.31 vol pts+0.62 vol ptsUnavailable

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

31JUL26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
7AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
28AUG26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25SEP26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)

BTC · weekly · 2026-07-28 options surface report, with standard-tenor volatility, skew and wing observations.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-07-21 21:51:00 UTC → 2026-07-28 21:51:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
31JUL26+0.01000-0.01050+0.10020+0.08280-0.05660rotation towards puts, wing steepening
7AUG26+0.01920-0.01010+0.11240+0.07800-0.10800rotation towards puts, wing steepening
28AUG26+0.00720-0.01040+0.11170+0.09390-0.03120rotation towards puts
25SEP26+0.00370-0.01220+0.09780+0.09530-0.00470rotation towards puts
25DEC26-0.03010+0.01330+0.00560-0.02770+0.05570parallel shift lower
26MAR27-0.00900-0.03220+0.09760+0.10990+0.03860parallel shift lower
25JUN27+0.03350-0.07820+0.14550+0.22040-0.02030parallel shift lower

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTCUnavailableUnavailablenot recorded / not recorded requirednot recorded / not recorded maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 28 Jul 2026, 21:51:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
28 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
21 Jul 2026, 21:51 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
No daily report input list was recorded in this edition.
Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
Original wing convention
BF25 = (iv25Call + iv25Put) / 2 − ivAtm. Verified captured inputs supply the reader values; unavailable inputs remain unavailable.
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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