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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

BTC weekly surface: 1W ATM IV falls 2.43 volatility points

Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged -1.18 volatility points, RR25 -0.61 volatility points and BF25 -0.26 volatility points between the stored endpoints.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Window 24 Jul 2026–31 Jul 2026

Lead chart

BTC ATM implied-volatility term structure

30.5%33.8%37.1%40.4%43.8%1W2W1M3M6M9M1Y

Week-end surface snapshot against the week-opening comparison snapshot.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -2.43 volatility points, to 31.75%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

24 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC to 31 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.82 volatility points to 32.59% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.23 volatility points to 41.31% across 6M and 1Y.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.61 volatility points to -4.35% across the six available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.26 volatility points to 2.15% across the six available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.43 volatility points at 1W, to 31.75%.

Weekly universe roll: added 1AUG26, 21AUG26, 2AUG26, 30OCT26, 3AUG26, 4AUG26; removed 25JUL26, 26JUL26, 27JUL26, 28JUL26, 31JUL26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

7AUG26, -3.51 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -2.43 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, -1.73 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, -0.58 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

28AUG26, +0.2517 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

7AUG26, -0.1988 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W31.7534.18-2.43 vol pts-7.11%
2W32.3634.24-1.88 vol pts-5.49%
1M33.6634.81-1.15 vol pts-3.30%
3M37.1638.29-1.13 vol pts-2.95%
6M40.2140.62-0.41 vol pts-1.01%
9M41.4941.70-0.21 vol pts-0.50%
1Y42.4142.47-0.06 vol pts-0.14%

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 07-29 to 07-30

1W, -3.00 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 07-29 to 07-30

2W, -2.48 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 07-29 to 07-30

1M, -1.95 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 07-24 to 07-25

1W, +1.81 vol pts
05

RR25 · 07-24 to 07-25

1W, -1.69 vol pts
06

RR25 · 07-24 to 07-25

2W, -1.58 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W31.75%36.21%4.46 vol pts2.01 vol pts0.53 vol pts
2W32.25%35.52%3.27 vol pts2.30 vol pts0.63 vol pts
1M33.39%35.42%2.03 vol pts0.95 vol pts0.58 vol pts
3M37.16%38.70%1.54 vol pts0.54 vol pts0.59 vol pts
6M40.15%40.80%0.65 vol pts0.58 vol pts0.24 vol pts
9M41.35%41.82%0.47 vol pts0.67 vol pts0.20 vol pts
1Y42.20%42.61%0.41 vol pts0.64 vol pts0.27 vol pts

Daily report trail

The validated reports behind the weekly path.

This weekly edition reuses the stored headline, reader summary, news outcome and principal ATM fact from each published daily report inside the comparison window.

DatePublished daily reportLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
BTC options volatility eases, led by the front end, as put-side skew increases2W: -2.08 vol pts to 34.24%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC options volatility rises, led by the front end1W: +2.12 vol pts to 35.71%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC front-end implied volatility rises as longer-dated volatility eases1W: +1.38 vol pts to 37.08%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC front-end volatility eases as 25-delta skew shifts toward calls1W: -2.25 vol pts to 34.73%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC front-end volatility rises as put-side skew firms1W: +0.73 vol pts to 35.43%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC options volatility rises, led by the front end1W: +2.28 vol pts to 37.61%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC options volatility falls, with skew tilting toward calls1W: -5.20 vol pts to 31.93%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC options stay broadly steady as put-side volatility firms1W: -0.32 vol pts to 31.49%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.61 volatility points to -4.35% across the six available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W-3.28-1.63-1.65 vol pts
2W-4.15-2.42-1.73 vol pts
1M-5.10-4.22-0.88 vol pts
3M-5.09-4.78-0.31 vol pts
6M-4.56-4.92+0.36 vol pts
9M-4.26-4.78+0.52 vol pts
1Y-3.91-4.43+0.52 vol pts

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.26 volatility points to 2.15% across the six available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1M.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.861.83+0.03 vol pts
2W1.772.14-0.37 vol pts
1M2.002.58-0.58 vol pts
3M2.192.76-0.57 vol pts
6M2.582.76-0.18 vol pts
9M2.582.66-0.08 vol pts
1Y2.532.45+0.08 vol pts

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
7AUG266.3 days62,851.44-1341.87 USD31.64%-2.57 vol pts-0.91 vol pts-0.23 vol pts
14AUG2613.3 days62,903.43-1339.17 USD32.24%-2.20 vol pts-0.22 vol pts-0.52 vol pts
28AUG2627.3 days63,007.42-1335.11 USD33.31%-1.60 vol pts-0.70 vol pts-0.74 vol pts
25SEP2655.3 days63,225.77-1318.74 USD35.25%-0.91 vol pts-0.86 vol pts-0.38 vol pts
25DEC26146.3 days63,869.36-1341.06 USD39.45%-0.63 vol pts+0.25 vol pts-0.25 vol pts
26MAR27237.3 days64,515.53-1345.14 USD40.93%-0.41 vol pts+0.47 vol pts-0.15 vol pts
25JUN27328.3 days65,181.47-1318.09 USD42.11%-0.16 vol pts+0.50 vol pts+0.04 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

7AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
14AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
28AUG26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25SEP26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
7AUG26+0.05700-0.05720+0.06490+0.03580-0.19880rotation towards puts, wing steepening
14AUG26+0.04310-0.05160+0.14670+0.08340-0.10960rotation towards puts, wing steepening
28AUG26+0.02960-0.04130+0.25170+0.15110-0.06610rotation towards puts
25SEP26+0.04470-0.05170+0.21460+0.17340-0.09840rotation towards puts
25DEC26-0.07470+0.03510-0.02230-0.09430+0.15210parallel shift lower
26MAR27-0.06950+0.02840+0.01510-0.06010+0.11730parallel shift lower
25JUN27-0.02440-0.02020+0.09990+0.10970+0.04610parallel shift lower

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
31 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
24 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
The weekly edition reuses 8 validated daily reports from 2026-07-24 through 2026-07-31; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.
Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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