01 · Options Market Read
What the volatility surface did.
1W ATM IV fell 5.45 volatility points to 25.91%, a notable move at the 83rd percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 28.66%, -3.49 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.93%, -0.34 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 5.00 points to 15.97 points. 1M RR25 moved 1.25 volatility points toward calls to -3.92%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 fell 0.49 volatility points to 1.33%. The nearest eligible forward, 14AUG26, rose $1,486.20 (+2.35%) to $64,665.26. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data02 · Catalyst check
31 Jul 2026, 17:50 UTC to 07 Aug 2026, 17:50 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 event was retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
318 feed articles scanned across 13 feeds and 13 publishers. 107 fell inside the report window; 16 passed source relevance rules; 1 passed the final threshold; 1 event displayed.
03 · Weekly summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -3.49 volatility points to 28.66% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.34 volatility points to 40.93% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.76 volatility points to -3.60% across the six headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.19 volatility points to 1.99% across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -5.45 volatility points at 1W, to 25.91%.
Weekly universe roll: added 10AUG26, 11AUG26, 8AUG26, 9AUG26; removed 1AUG26, 2AUG26, 3AUG26, 4AUG26, 7AUG26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.
04 · Seven-day ranking
Largest weekly surface events
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -5.45 vol ptsLargest eligible smile rotation
21AUG26, +2.91 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
1M, +1.25 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, -0.49 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI rho move
30OCT26, -0.2416 paramLargest eligible SVI sigma move
30OCT26, +0.1412 param05 · ATM volatility
Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 25.91 | 31.36 | -5.45 vol pts | -17.38% |
| 2W | 27.88 | 31.78 | -3.90 vol pts | -12.27% |
| 1M | 32.18 | 33.31 | -1.13 vol pts | -3.39% |
| 3M | 37.18 | 37.17 | +0.01 vol pts | +0.03% |
| 6M | 39.98 | 40.22 | -0.24 vol pts | -0.60% |
| 9M | 41.11 | 41.48 | -0.37 vol pts | -0.89% |
| 1Y | 41.88 | 42.33 | -0.45 vol pts | -1.06% |
06 · During the week
Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.
The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.
ATM IV · 08-06 to 08-07
1W, -2.35 vol ptsATM IV · 08-06 to 08-07
2W, -1.74 vol ptsATM IV · 08-02 to 08-03
1W, -1.69 vol ptsATM IV · 08-03 to 08-04
1W, -1.60 vol ptsRR25 · 08-03 to 08-04
1W, +1.27 vol ptsATM IV · 08-03 to 08-04
2W, -1.26 vol pts| Tenor | ATM IV low | ATM IV high | ATM IV range | RR25 range | BF25 range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 25.91% | 32.46% | 6.55 vol pts | 2.35 vol pts | 0.56 vol pts |
| 2W | 27.88% | 32.59% | 4.71 vol pts | 2.02 vol pts | 0.33 vol pts |
| 1M | 31.90% | 33.66% | 1.76 vol pts | 1.65 vol pts | 0.21 vol pts |
| 3M | 36.47% | 37.18% | 0.71 vol pts | 1.20 vol pts | 0.16 vol pts |
| 6M | 39.63% | 40.21% | 0.58 vol pts | 0.90 vol pts | 0.18 vol pts |
| 9M | 40.93% | 41.50% | 0.57 vol pts | 0.78 vol pts | 0.17 vol pts |
| 1Y | 41.88% | 42.44% | 0.56 vol pts | 0.58 vol pts | 0.23 vol pts |
Daily report trail
The validated reports behind the weekly path.
This weekly edition reuses the stored headline, reader summary, news outcome and principal ATM fact from each published daily report inside the comparison window.
| Date | Published daily report | Largest daily ATM move | News outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC options stay broadly steady as put-side volatility firms | 1W: -0.32 vol pts to 31.49% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| Front-end BTC volatility edges higher while longer-dated volatility holds steady | 1M: +0.41 vol pts to 33.39% | No sufficiently relevant context identified | |
| BTC options volatility eases across the curve | 2W: -0.64 vol pts to 31.95% | No sufficiently relevant context identified | |
| BTC options volatility eases as relative call-side skew firms | 1W: -1.25 vol pts to 30.39% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC front-end volatility eases as call-side skew firms | 1W: -1.84 vol pts to 29.08% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC options volatility rises as call-side skew strengthens | 1M: +0.67 vol pts to 32.53% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC front-end implied volatility rises while long-dated volatility and surface shape remain stable | 1M: +0.57 vol pts to 32.73% | No sufficiently relevant context identified | |
| BTC options: front-end volatility eases while the long end holds steady | 1W: -2.11 vol pts to 26.07% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst |
07 · Skew and convexity
RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.76 volatility points to -3.60% across the six headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 1M. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -2.55 | -3.36 | +0.81 vol pts |
| 2W | -3.22 | -4.41 | +1.19 vol pts |
| 1M | -3.92 | -5.17 | +1.25 vol pts |
| 3M | -4.17 | -4.95 | +0.78 vol pts |
| 6M | -4.09 | -4.40 | +0.31 vol pts |
| 9M | -3.87 | -4.19 | +0.32 vol pts |
| 1Y | -3.62 | -3.85 | +0.23 vol pts |
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.19 volatility points to 1.99% across the six headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1W.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.33 | 1.82 | -0.49 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.60 | 1.87 | -0.27 vol pts |
| 1M | 1.94 | 2.07 | -0.13 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.23 | 2.15 | +0.08 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.41 | 2.58 | -0.17 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.43 | 2.57 | -0.14 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.44 | 2.57 | -0.13 vol pts |
08 · Listed expiries
Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward end (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV end | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14AUG26 | 6.6 days | 64,665.26 | +1486.20 USD | 25.68% | -6.03 vol pts | +1.89 vol pts | -0.59 vol pts |
| 21AUG26 | 13.6 days | 64,717.86 | +1498.57 USD | 27.66% | -4.88 vol pts | +1.81 vol pts | -0.25 vol pts |
| 28AUG26 | 20.6 days | 64,778.72 | +1503.69 USD | 30.11% | -2.83 vol pts | +1.50 vol pts | -0.34 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 48.6 days | 64,996.54 | +1503.81 USD | 33.81% | -1.36 vol pts | +1.49 vol pts | -0.23 vol pts |
| 30OCT26 | 83.6 days | 65,265.81 | +1529.53 USD | 36.66% | -0.48 vol pts | +0.76 vol pts | +0.04 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 139.6 days | 65,735.92 | +1596.12 USD | 39.15% | -0.29 vol pts | +0.28 vol pts | -0.16 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 230.6 days | 66,410.02 | +1621.31 USD | 40.54% | -0.43 vol pts | +0.33 vol pts | -0.15 vol pts |
| 25JUN27 | 321.6 days | 67,088.74 | +1631.28 USD | 41.57% | -0.48 vol pts | +0.24 vol pts | -0.14 vol pts |
06 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.
Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.
Weekly surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.
07 · SVI diagnostics
Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14AUG26 | +0.01850 | -0.02800 | -0.05960 | -0.06110 | -0.04540 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 21AUG26 | +0.02130 | -0.01970 | +0.01810 | -0.03560 | -0.10120 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 28AUG26 | +0.01090 | -0.01810 | +0.03220 | -0.01310 | -0.02650 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 25SEP26 | -0.03390 | +0.01890 | -0.16180 | -0.14230 | +0.12640 | rotation towards calls |
| 30OCT26 | -0.05680 | +0.04540 | -0.24160 | -0.24980 | +0.14120 | rotation towards calls |
| 25DEC26 | +0.00970 | -0.00600 | -0.03580 | -0.04600 | -0.01340 | parallel shift lower |
| 26MAR27 | -0.04030 | +0.03260 | -0.05340 | -0.12480 | +0.05900 | parallel shift lower |
| 25JUN27 | -0.06290 | +0.07250 | -0.11930 | -0.23980 | +0.05880 | parallel shift lower |
08 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.
- Week-end snapshot
- 07 Aug 2026, 17:50 UTC
- Week-opening snapshot
- 31 Jul 2026, 17:50 UTC
- Comparison
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Snapshot selection
- The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
- Daily report inputs
- The weekly edition reuses 8 validated daily reports from 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-07; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.
- Calculations and commentary
- Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Causal claims
- The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.
This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.
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