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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

BTC weekly surface: 1W ATM IV falls 5.45 volatility points

Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged -1.86 volatility points, RR25 +0.76 volatility points and BF25 -0.19 volatility points between the stored endpoints.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Window 31 Jul 2026–7 Aug 2026

Snapshot · 7 Aug 2026, 17:50 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 25.91%1W RR25 -2.55 vol pts1W BF25 +1.33 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
  • BTC1W ATM IV 25.91%Spot-index 24h Unavailable
Full snapshot readings
  • BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 25.91%1W RR25 -2.55 vol pts1W BF25 +1.33 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable

No validated 7D spot-index returns are available; displayed spot-index returns remain 24h. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

Lead chart

BTC ATM implied-volatility term structure

23.9%29.0%34.1%39.2%44.3%1W2W1M3M6M9M1Y

Week-end surface snapshot against the week-opening comparison snapshot.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -5.45 volatility points, to 25.91%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

31 Jul 2026, 17:50 UTC to 07 Aug 2026, 17:50 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -3.49 volatility points to 28.66% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.34 volatility points to 40.93% across 6M and 1Y.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.76 volatility points to -3.60 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.19 volatility points to 1.99 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -5.45 volatility points at 1W, to 25.91%.

Weekly universe roll: added 10AUG26, 11AUG26, 8AUG26, 9AUG26; removed 1AUG26, 2AUG26, 3AUG26, 4AUG26, 7AUG26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -5.45 vol pts
02

Largest eligible smile rotation

21AUG26, +2.91 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1M, +1.25 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, -0.49 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

30OCT26, -0.2416 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

30OCT26, +0.1412 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W25.9131.36-5.45 vol pts-17.38%
2W27.8831.78-3.90 vol pts-12.27%
1M32.1833.31-1.13 vol pts-3.39%
3M37.1837.17+0.01 vol pts+0.03%
6M39.9840.22-0.24 vol pts-0.60%
9M41.1141.48-0.37 vol pts-0.89%
1Y41.8842.33-0.45 vol pts-1.06%

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 08-06 to 08-07

1W, -2.35 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 08-06 to 08-07

2W, -1.74 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 08-02 to 08-03

1W, -1.69 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 08-03 to 08-04

1W, -1.60 vol pts
05

RR25 · 08-03 to 08-04

1W, +1.27 vol pts
06

ATM IV · 08-03 to 08-04

2W, -1.26 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W25.91%32.46%6.55 vol pts2.35 vol pts0.56 vol pts
2W27.88%32.59%4.71 vol pts2.02 vol pts0.33 vol pts
1M31.90%33.66%1.76 vol pts1.65 vol pts0.21 vol pts
3M36.47%37.18%0.71 vol pts1.20 vol pts0.16 vol pts
6M39.63%40.21%0.58 vol pts0.90 vol pts0.18 vol pts
9M40.93%41.50%0.57 vol pts0.78 vol pts0.17 vol pts
1Y41.88%42.44%0.56 vol pts0.58 vol pts0.23 vol pts

Daily report trail

The stored reports behind the weekly path.

8 stored daily report inputs; 8 separate surface observations. Calendar news-diary entries do not establish which daily reports were reused.

Daily reports qualify by their snapshot time inside the comparison window. A report published earlier on the first date can fall outside that window.

DateStored daily report inputLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
BTC options stay broadly steady as put-side volatility firms1W: -0.32 vol pts to 31.49%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Front-end BTC volatility edges higher while longer-dated volatility holds steady1M: +0.41 vol pts to 33.39%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC options volatility eases across the curve2W: -0.64 vol pts to 31.95%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC options volatility eases as relative call-side skew firms1W: -1.25 vol pts to 30.39%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC front-end volatility eases as call-side skew firms1W: -1.84 vol pts to 29.08%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC options volatility rises as call-side skew strengthens1M: +0.67 vol pts to 32.53%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC front-end implied volatility rises while long-dated volatility and surface shape remain stable1M: +0.57 vol pts to 32.73%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC options: front-end volatility eases while the long end holds steady1W: -2.11 vol pts to 26.07%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.76 volatility points to -3.60 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 1M. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W-2.55-3.36+0.81 vol pts
2W-3.22-4.41+1.19 vol pts
1M-3.92-5.17+1.25 vol pts
3M-4.17-4.95+0.78 vol pts
6M-4.09-4.40+0.31 vol pts
9M-3.87-4.19+0.32 vol pts
1Y-3.62-3.85+0.23 vol pts

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.19 volatility points to 1.99 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1W.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.331.82-0.49 vol pts
2W1.601.87-0.27 vol pts
1M1.942.07-0.13 vol pts
3M2.232.15+0.08 vol pts
6M2.412.58-0.17 vol pts
9M2.432.57-0.14 vol pts
1Y2.442.57-0.13 vol pts

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
14AUG266.6 days64,665.26+1486.20 USD25.68%-6.03 vol pts+1.89 vol pts-0.59 vol pts
21AUG2613.6 days64,717.86+1498.57 USD27.66%-4.88 vol pts+1.81 vol pts-0.25 vol pts
28AUG2620.6 days64,778.72+1503.69 USD30.11%-2.83 vol pts+1.50 vol pts-0.34 vol pts
25SEP2648.6 days64,996.54+1503.81 USD33.81%-1.36 vol pts+1.49 vol pts-0.23 vol pts
30OCT2683.6 days65,265.81+1529.53 USD36.66%-0.48 vol pts+0.76 vol pts+0.04 vol pts
25DEC26139.6 days65,735.92+1596.12 USD39.15%-0.29 vol pts+0.28 vol pts-0.16 vol pts
26MAR27230.6 days66,410.02+1621.31 USD40.54%-0.43 vol pts+0.33 vol pts-0.15 vol pts
25JUN27321.6 days67,088.74+1631.28 USD41.57%-0.48 vol pts+0.24 vol pts-0.14 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

14AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
21AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
28AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25SEP26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Original report summary

Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged -1.86 volatility points, RR25 +0.76 volatility points and BF25 -0.19 volatility points between the stored endpoints.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-07-31 17:50:00 UTC → 2026-08-07 17:50:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
14AUG26+0.01850-0.02800-0.05960-0.06110-0.04540rotation towards calls, wing steepening
21AUG26+0.02130-0.01970+0.01810-0.03560-0.10120rotation towards calls, wing steepening
28AUG26+0.01090-0.01810+0.03220-0.01310-0.02650rotation towards calls, wing steepening
25SEP26-0.03390+0.01890-0.16180-0.14230+0.12640rotation towards calls
30OCT26-0.05680+0.04540-0.24160-0.24980+0.14120rotation towards calls
25DEC26+0.00970-0.00600-0.03580-0.04600-0.01340parallel shift lower
26MAR27-0.04030+0.03260-0.05340-0.12480+0.05900parallel shift lower
25JUN27-0.06290+0.07250-0.11930-0.23980+0.05880parallel shift lower

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTCUnavailableUnavailablenot recorded / not recorded requirednot recorded / not recorded maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 07 Aug 2026, 17:50:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
07 Aug 2026, 17:50 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
31 Jul 2026, 17:50 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
8 stored daily report inputs, dated 31 July 2026, 1 August 2026, 2 August 2026, 3 August 2026, 4 August 2026, 5 August 2026, 6 August 2026, 7 August 2026. Surface observations and calendar news-diary entries are separate.
Original stored input methodology

The weekly edition reuses 8 validated daily reports from 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-07; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.

Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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