01 · Weekly briefing
The week’s relative-value signal.
TRX and AVAX marked the widest one-week implied-versus-realised divergence: TRX was 6.35 volatility points rich to seven-day realised volatility, and AVAX was 6.10 points cheap. ETH’s 6.79-point ATM IV increase was the largest weekly level change elsewhere in the complex.
02 · Options market read
Dispersion at the common cutoff.
Aligned dispersion is unavailable because a verified common-cutoff comparison receipt is not available. The native observations remain in the seven-market scorecard below.
03 · Catalyst check
No qualifying catalyst retained.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
04 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
| Asset | 1W ATM | Weekly ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | 1W RR25 | Weekly RR25 Δ | 1W BF25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.76% | +1.21 vol pts | 31.42% | +3.34 vol pts | -0.37 vol pts | -1.51 vol pts | Unavailable |
| ETH | 48.48% | +6.79 vol pts | 45.57% | +2.91 vol pts | -1.16 vol pts | -1.78 vol pts | Unavailable |
| SOL | 50.01% | -0.91 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +4.50 vol pts | +2.93 vol pts | Unavailable |
| XRP | 51.24% | -3.59 vol pts | 55.88% | -4.64 vol pts | +2.59 vol pts | -1.72 vol pts | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 63.92% | -0.38 vol pts | 65.05% | -1.13 vol pts | +1.49 vol pts | -1.74 vol pts | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 55.47% | +2.93 vol pts | 61.57% | -6.10 vol pts | +3.09 vol pts | +0.57 vol pts | Unavailable |
| TRX | 21.70% | +0.70 vol pts | 15.35% | +6.35 vol pts | -0.83 vol pts | -3.18 vol pts | Unavailable |
05 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards at the common cutoff.
The recorded endpoint cohort contains 7 of 7 reported assets with matching current and previous endpoint clocks: 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC to 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC. Aligned assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, AVAX, TRX.
The published headline is retained as written. Fit labels describe fit quality; they do not establish research eligibility.
| Asset | Fit acceptance | Native window | Common cutoff | History | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; previous 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| ETH | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; previous 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| SOL | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; previous 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| XRP | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; previous 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| HYPE | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; previous 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| AVAX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; previous 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| TRX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; previous 05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|
Aligned implied-versus-realised rankings and interpretation are unavailable without a verified cohort-compatible comparison.
06 · Term structures
Supported ATM tenors only.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.76% / +1.21 | 35.40% / -1.20 | 37.96% / -0.88 | 39.19% / -0.98 |
| ETH | 48.48% / +6.79 | 49.97% / +0.51 | 52.75% / +0.64 | 54.28% / +0.23 |
| SOL | 50.01% / -0.91 | 52.58% / +0.83 | 51.94% / +0.56 | Unavailable |
| XRP | 51.24% / -3.59 | 52.18% / -3.04 | 51.89% / -3.45 | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 63.92% / -0.38 | 62.19% / -3.30 | 61.71% / -4.50 | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 55.47% / +2.93 | 56.02% / +0.50 | 55.75% / +0.83 | Unavailable |
| TRX | 21.70% / +0.70 | 22.23% / +4.14 | 22.52% / +3.60 | Unavailable |
Unbracketed standard tenors are unavailable; the page does not display extrapolated surface values.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Across the seven-market crypto options complex, TRX one-week ATM IV stood 6.35 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while AVAX stood 6.10 points below it. The resulting 12.45-point implied-versus-realised range was the week’s strongest relative-value contrast. ETH also posted the largest one-week ATM IV increase, up 6.79 points.
Data quality · 7d realised volatility
No maximum-gap limits were recorded. Availability and option-tenor support are separate checks.
| Asset | RV availability | Coverage status | Observed coverage | Minimum coverage | Largest gap | Gap limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| ETH | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| SOL | Unavailable | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| XRP | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| HYPE | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| AVAX | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| TRX | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
The 7d realised-volatility window is unavailable where shown; this is a data-coverage result, separate from whether an option tenor is supported.
SOL · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
Canonical SOL index coverage for 30d is incomplete: expected 43200 one-minute returns, found 43164 (99.9167% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded.
07 · Methodology
Aligned, availability-aware weekly evidence.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot seven days earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Standard-tenor values are published only when listed expiries bracket the target on both endpoints; extrapolated values are suppressed.
Seven-day performance uses the nearest eligible listed forward available at both endpoints.