01 · Weekly briefing
The week’s relative-value signal.
Across the seven-market options complex, Solana’s one-week ATM IV decline was the largest move, while Bitcoin was the sole market with a rise.
02 · Options market read
Dispersion at the common cutoff.
Aligned dispersion is unavailable because a verified common-cutoff comparison receipt is not available. The native observations remain in the seven-market scorecard below.
03 · Catalyst check
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
04 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
| Asset | 1W ATM | Weekly ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | 1W RR25 | Weekly RR25 Δ | 1W BF25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.95% | +1.76 vol pts | 36.54% | -1.59 vol pts | +1.62 vol pts | +2.32 vol pts | 1.76 vol pts |
| ETH | 43.37% | -1.01 vol pts | 46.83% | -3.46 vol pts | +1.36 vol pts | +2.03 vol pts | 2.42 vol pts |
| SOL | 50.62% | -20.89 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.25 vol pts | -1.28 vol pts | 3.49 vol pts |
| XRP | 54.50% | -15.53 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.91 vol pts | +1.77 vol pts | 2.71 vol pts |
| HYPE | 62.25% | -11.95 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.27 vol pts | +3.63 vol pts | 3.93 vol pts |
| AVAX | 53.39% | -9.44 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.41 vol pts | +0.96 vol pts | 4.55 vol pts |
| TRX | 21.28% | -0.88 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.47 vol pts | +3.45 vol pts | 2.21 vol pts |
05 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards at the common cutoff.
The recorded endpoint cohort contains 7 of 7 reported assets with matching current and previous endpoint clocks: 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC to 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC. Aligned assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, AVAX, TRX.
The published headline is retained as written. Fit labels describe fit quality; they do not establish research eligibility.
| Asset | Fit acceptance | Native window | Common cutoff | History | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; previous 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| ETH | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; previous 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| SOL | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; previous 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| XRP | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; previous 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| HYPE | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; previous 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| AVAX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; previous 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| TRX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; previous 29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|
Aligned implied-versus-realised rankings and interpretation are unavailable without a verified cohort-compatible comparison.
06 · Term structures
Supported ATM tenors only.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.95% / +1.76 | 36.98% / +1.46 | 38.93% / +0.99 | 40.15% / -0.01 |
| ETH | 43.37% / -1.01 | 49.46% / +0.45 | 52.08% / -0.21 | 54.17% / -0.44 |
| SOL | 50.62% / -20.89 | 51.62% / -14.62 | 51.44% / -9.64 | Unavailable |
| XRP | 54.50% / -15.53 | 55.65% / -11.12 | 55.36% / -8.77 | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 62.25% / -11.95 | 64.75% / -5.15 | 66.07% / -2.45 | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 53.39% / -9.44 | 55.45% / -1.85 | 55.27% / -0.74 | Unavailable |
| TRX | 21.28% / -0.88 | 17.59% / -4.74 | 18.31% / -3.46 | Unavailable |
Unbracketed standard tenors are unavailable; the page does not display extrapolated surface values.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Original report summary
Solana’s one-week ATM IV fell 20.89 volatility points, while Bitcoin’s one-week ATM IV rose 1.76 volatility points. Seven-market one-week ATM IV changes spanned 22.65 volatility points. HYPE’s one-week ATM IV was 62.25%.
Data quality · 7d realised volatility
No maximum-gap limits were recorded. Availability and option-tenor support are separate checks.
| Asset | RV availability | Coverage status | Observed coverage | Minimum coverage | Largest gap | Gap limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| ETH | Available | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| SOL | Unavailable | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| XRP | Unavailable | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
| TRX | Unavailable | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded | Not recorded |
The 7d realised-volatility window is unavailable where shown; this is a data-coverage result, separate from whether an option tenor is supported.
SOL · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
Canonical SOL index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405.
XRP · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
Canonical XRP index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405.
HYPE · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
Canonical HYPE index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405.
AVAX · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
Canonical AVAX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405.
TRX · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
Canonical TRX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405.
07 · Methodology
Aligned, availability-aware weekly evidence.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot seven days earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Standard-tenor values are published only when listed expiries bracket the target on both endpoints; extrapolated values are suppressed.
Seven-day performance uses the nearest eligible listed forward available at both endpoints.