01 · Weekly briefing
The week’s relative-value signal.
TRX one-week ATM IV was 5.75 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while XRP one-week ATM IV was 16.90 points below seven-day realised volatility.
02 · Options market read
Dispersion at the common cutoff.
Aligned dispersion is unavailable because a verified common-cutoff comparison receipt is not available. The native observations remain in the seven-market scorecard below.
03 · Catalyst check
Relevant context retained.
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
04 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
| Asset | 1W ATM | Weekly ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | 1W RR25 | Weekly RR25 Δ | 1W BF25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.63% | -0.22 vol pts | 36.31% | -1.68 vol pts | +1.25 vol pts | +1.72 vol pts | Unavailable |
| ETH | 48.21% | -0.22 vol pts | 51.10% | -2.89 vol pts | +2.13 vol pts | +3.28 vol pts | Unavailable |
| SOL | 53.62% | +3.39 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.02 vol pts | -1.23 vol pts | Unavailable |
| XRP | 61.47% | +10.23 vol pts | 78.37% | -16.90 vol pts | +1.23 vol pts | -1.37 vol pts | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 65.26% | +1.39 vol pts | 75.32% | -10.06 vol pts | +6.05 vol pts | +3.82 vol pts | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 66.51% | +11.06 vol pts | 73.04% | -6.53 vol pts | +6.59 vol pts | +3.43 vol pts | Unavailable |
| TRX | 18.91% | -2.83 vol pts | 13.16% | +5.75 vol pts | -1.22 vol pts | -0.37 vol pts | Unavailable |
05 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards at the common cutoff.
The recorded endpoint cohort contains 6 of 7 reported assets with matching current and previous endpoint clocks: 12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC to 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC. Aligned assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, AVAX.
The published headline is retained as written. Fit labels describe fit quality; they do not establish research eligibility.
| Asset | Fit acceptance | Native window | Common cutoff | History | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; previous 12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| ETH | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; previous 12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| SOL | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; previous 12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| XRP | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; previous 12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| HYPE | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; previous 12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| AVAX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; previous 12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| TRX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Unknown — native-window eligibility not recorded or verified | Excluded — current and previous endpoint clocks differ from the largest aligned group (current 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; previous 12 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC) | Unknown — history eligibility not recorded | Unavailable — eligibility receipt not recorded |
| Asset | Recorded current endpoint | Recorded previous endpoint | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRX | 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC | 12 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC | current and previous endpoint clocks differ from the largest aligned group |
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|
Aligned implied-versus-realised rankings and interpretation are unavailable without a verified cohort-compatible comparison.
06 · Term structures
Supported ATM tenors only.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.63% / -0.22 | 34.34% / -1.05 | 36.75% / -1.26 | 38.34% / -0.89 |
| ETH | 48.21% / -0.22 | 48.61% / -1.28 | 52.62% / -0.16 | 54.47% / +0.19 |
| SOL | 53.62% / +3.39 | 52.98% / +0.36 | 54.18% / +2.29 | Unavailable |
| XRP | 61.47% / +10.23 | 58.58% / +6.22 | 57.02% / +5.07 | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 65.26% / +1.39 | 63.66% / +1.29 | 62.71% / +0.50 | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 66.51% / +11.06 | 57.87% / +1.85 | 57.14% / +1.44 | Unavailable |
| TRX | 18.91% / -2.83 | 20.51% / -1.73 | 21.08% / -1.44 | Unavailable |
Unbracketed standard tenors are unavailable; the page does not display extrapolated surface values.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
TRX one-week ATM IV exceeded TRX seven-day realised volatility by 5.75 points, while XRP one-week ATM IV trailed XRP seven-day realised volatility by 16.90 points. That 22.65-point implied-versus-realised range was the week’s clearest cross-asset relative-value divide. AVAX one-week ATM IV nevertheless posted the largest weekly increase, rising 11.06 points to 66.51%, showing that repricing and relative value did not move in lockstep.
Maximum-gap limits were recorded for only some assets; read each asset’s policy below. Availability and option-tenor support are separate checks.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| ETH | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| SOL | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.6032% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
ETH · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
SOL · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical SOL index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.6032% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10040/10080 observed returns; 99.6032% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43160/43200 observed returns; 99.9074% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
The 7d realised-volatility window is unavailable where shown; this is a data-coverage result, separate from whether an option tenor is supported.
SOL · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
Canonical SOL index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded.
07 · Methodology
Aligned, availability-aware weekly evidence.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot seven days earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Standard-tenor values are published only when listed expiries bracket the target on both endpoints; extrapolated values are suppressed.
Seven-day performance uses the nearest eligible listed forward available at both endpoints.