01 · Weekly briefing
The week’s relative-value signal.
ETH 1W ATM IV changed by +9.02 volatility points, compared with XRP 1W ATM IV which changed by -1.54 volatility points.
02 · Options market read
Dispersion at the common cutoff.
One-week ATM IV changes ranged from -1.54 vol pts in XRP to +9.02 vol pts in ETH, a 10.56-point spread.
One-week ATM IV levels spanned 30.04 volatility points, with AVAX highest and BTC lowest.
03 · Catalyst check
Relevant context retained.
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
04 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
| Asset | 1W ATM | Weekly ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | 1W RR25 | Weekly RR25 Δ | 1W BF25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 36.64% | +5.28 vol pts | 31.92% | +4.72 vol pts | -3.60 vol pts | +0.86 vol pts | 2.00 vol pts |
| ETH | 55.02% | +9.02 vol pts | 47.51% | +7.51 vol pts | -6.32 vol pts | -1.57 vol pts | 3.60 vol pts |
| SOL | 55.07% | +1.43 vol pts | 54.07% | +1.00 vol pts | -3.40 vol pts | +0.02 vol pts | 3.22 vol pts |
| XRP | 53.07% | -1.54 vol pts | 53.22% | -0.15 vol pts | -0.92 vol pts | +0.22 vol pts | 4.08 vol pts |
| HYPE | 58.51% | +7.67 vol pts | 60.46% | -1.95 vol pts | -0.43 vol pts | +0.70 vol pts | 2.65 vol pts |
| AVAX | 66.68% | +4.41 vol pts | 68.60% | -1.92 vol pts | +1.09 vol pts | +3.12 vol pts | 3.13 vol pts |
| TRX | 21.18% | -0.25 vol pts | 11.04% | +10.14 vol pts | +0.87 vol pts | -4.23 vol pts | 2.37 vol pts |
05 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards at the common cutoff.
The recorded endpoint cohort contains 6 of 7 reported assets with matching current and previous endpoint clocks: 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC to 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Aligned assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, AVAX.
The published headline is retained as written. Fit labels describe fit quality; they do not establish research eligibility.
| Asset | Fit acceptance | Native window | Common cutoff | History | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Fit acceptance not recorded | Available | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; previous 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC) | History is assessed separately for each metric. | Eligible |
| ETH | Fit acceptance not recorded | Available | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; previous 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC) | History is assessed separately for each metric. | Eligible |
| SOL | Fit acceptance not recorded | Available | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; previous 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC) | History is assessed separately for each metric. | Eligible |
| XRP | Fit acceptance not recorded | Available | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; previous 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC) | History is assessed separately for each metric. | Eligible |
| HYPE | Fit acceptance not recorded | Available | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; previous 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC) | History is assessed separately for each metric. | Eligible |
| AVAX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Available | Included in shared endpoint cohort (current 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; previous 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC) | History is assessed separately for each metric. | Eligible |
| TRX | Fit acceptance not recorded | Available | Excluded — Snapshot times differ from the shared comparison window. (current 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; previous 17 Oct 2026, 16:41 UTC) | History is assessed separately for each metric. | Excluded — Snapshot times differ from the shared comparison window. |
| Asset | Recorded current endpoint | Recorded previous endpoint | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRX | 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC | 17 Oct 2026, 16:41 UTC | current and previous endpoint clocks differ from the largest aligned group |
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · +66.68 | HYPE · +58.51 | SOL · +55.07 |
| Weekly 1W ATM IV change | ETH · +9.02 | HYPE · +7.67 | BTC · +5.28 |
| Largest absolute 1W ATM IV move | ETH · +9.02 | HYPE · +7.67 | BTC · +5.28 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | ETH · +7.51 | BTC · +4.72 | SOL · +1.00 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · +1.09 | HYPE · -0.43 | XRP · -0.92 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | ETH · -6.32 | BTC · -3.60 | SOL · -3.40 |
| 7d forward-proxy return | XRP · -1.55 | SOL · -3.80 | HYPE · -4.32 |
ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +7.51 vol points; HYPE has the lowest at -1.95 vol points. The range between these spreads is 9.46 vol points.
06 · Term structures
Supported ATM tenors only.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 36.64% / +5.28 | 37.19% / +1.43 | 37.79% / +1.12 | 38.37% / +0.68 |
| ETH | 55.02% / +9.02 | 51.73% / +2.66 | 52.42% / +1.83 | 53.00% / +1.06 |
| SOL | 55.07% / +1.43 | 51.66% / -3.02 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| XRP | 53.07% / -1.54 | 54.98% / -0.26 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 58.51% / +7.67 | 57.71% / +2.41 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 66.68% / +4.41 | 66.66% / +4.04 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| TRX | 21.18% / -0.25 | 21.39% / +4.94 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Unbracketed standard tenors are unavailable; the page does not display extrapolated surface values.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Original report summary
The 1W ATM IV comparison shows ETH changed by +9.02 volatility points, compared with XRP which changed by -1.54 volatility points.
Data quality · 7d realised volatility
All assets have a recorded maximum-gap limit of 60 minutes. Availability and option-tenor support are separate checks.
| Asset | RV availability | Coverage status | Observed coverage | Minimum coverage | Largest gap | Gap limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Available | complete | 100.00% | 97% | 0 min | 60 min |
| ETH | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| SOL | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| XRP | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| HYPE | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| AVAX | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| TRX | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
07 · Methodology
Aligned, availability-aware weekly evidence.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot seven days earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Standard-tenor values are published only when listed expiries bracket the target on both endpoints; extrapolated values are suppressed.
Seven-day performance uses the nearest eligible listed forward available at both endpoints.