BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 2.60 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.65 volatility points, RR25 -0.19 volatility points and BF25 -0.03 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 33.05%1W RR25 -3.52 vol pts1W BF25 +1.46 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
Market context · daily observation window
Market context
BTC spot-index return unavailable; 1W ATM IV rose 2.60 volatility points to 33.05% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward puts (-0.96 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.04 points); partial native coverage (3/4 measurements).
Previous report, watch levels and methodology
One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 10 Jul, 23:59 UTC to 11 Jul, 23:59 UTC.
Measured change since prior report
Against the 2026-07-10 daily edition.
BTC 1W ATM IV: prior change -2.81 → current change +2.60 volatility points; direction reversed.
BTC 1W RR25: prior change +1.99 → current change -0.96 volatility points; direction reversed.
BTC 1W BF25: prior change +0.01 → current change +0.04 volatility points; same direction.
A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; this compares measured changes only.
Next daily cutoff: measurable checks
These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.
Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 33.05 percent at . Current level 33.05; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 30.45 percent at . Current level 33.05; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt
These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.19 volatility points to -5.09 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.03 volatility points to 2.15 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
ATM IV change
12JUL26, +12.69 vol pts1.3d
ATM IV change
13JUL26, +8.64 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
12JUL26Expiry effect
0.3 days
63,786.58
-342.63 USD
29.77%
+12.69 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
+1.02 vol pts
13JUL26Expiry effect
1.3 days
63,793.7
-340.50 USD
31.27%
+8.64 vol pts
+0.74 vol pts
+0.48 vol pts
14JUL26
2.3 days
63,800.14
-339.33 USD
32.48%
+6.37 vol pts
-1.63 vol pts
+0.37 vol pts
17JUL26
5.3 days
63,817.27
-339.49 USD
33.46%
+3.29 vol pts
-0.99 vol pts
+0.05 vol pts
24JUL26
12.3 days
63,857.49
-336.54 USD
32.47%
+0.78 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
31JUL26
19.3 days
63,890.46
-340.94 USD
33.43%
+0.26 vol pts
+0.18 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
28AUG26
47.3 days
64,084.22
-353.24 USD
35.09%
+0.06 vol pts
-0.09 vol pts
-0.17 vol pts
25SEP26
75.3 days
64,264.8
-378.79 USD
36.56%
+0.05 vol pts
+0.04 vol pts
-0.18 vol pts
25DEC26
166.3 days
64,878.16
-378.03 USD
40.58%
+0.08 vol pts
-0.03 vol pts
-0.03 vol pts
26MAR27
257.3 days
65,561.05
-362.89 USD
41.86%
+0.02 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
-0.10 vol pts
25JUN27
348.3 days
66,213
-387.67 USD
42.64%
-0.02 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
+0.04 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
12JUL26rotation towards puts · wing steepening13JUL26rotation towards calls · wing steepening14JUL26rotation towards puts · wing steepening17JUL26rotation towards puts24JUL26parallel shift higher31JUL26rotation towards calls28AUG26limited movement25SEP26limited movement25DEC26parallel shift higher26MAR27limited movement25JUN27limited movement
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
12JUL26
13JUL26
14JUL26
17JUL26
24JUL26
31JUL26
28AUG26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-07-10 23:59:00 UTC → 2026-07-11 23:59:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Original report summary
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.65 volatility points, RR25 -0.19 volatility points and BF25 -0.03 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 33.05% · Δ +2.60 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.52 vol pts · Δ -0.96 vol pts
Wings: BTC 1W BF25 1.46 vol pts · Δ +0.04 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 33.05% · Δ +2.60 vol pts
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -3.52 vol pts · Δ -0.96 vol pts
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 1.46 vol pts · Δ +0.04 vol pts
IV versus RV
BTC Unavailable
Unavailable readings: BTC IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 24JUL26; the largest sigma change occurred at 14JUL26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
12JUL26
+0.08230
-0.07000
-0.06310
-0.03300
-0.60150
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
13JUL26
+0.05250
-0.04880
-0.03360
-0.01200
-0.29700
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
14JUL26
+0.04570
-0.03760
-0.01160
+0.01400
-0.22120
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
17JUL26
+0.02310
-0.02280
+0.02490
+0.02810
-0.07330
rotation towards puts
24JUL26
+0.01450
-0.01170
+0.12840
+0.07970
-0.05740
parallel shift higher
31JUL26
+0.04530
-0.03160
+0.11520
+0.05400
-0.17080
rotation towards calls
28AUG26
+0.02270
-0.02120
+0.07330
+0.03830
-0.07930
limited movement
25SEP26
-0.01100
+0.00010
+0.00990
+0.00990
+0.05020
limited movement
25DEC26
-0.03170
+0.01740
-0.01230
-0.03570
+0.05920
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
-0.08450
+0.05680
-0.08950
-0.17950
+0.14630
limited movement
25JUN27
-0.00140
-0.00190
+0.01100
+0.01920
-0.00110
limited movement
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 11 Jul 2026, 23:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
