BTC front-end volatility firms as put-side skew deepens
Front-end ATM IV rose, led by a +0.34 volatility-point move at 1W, while RR25 shifted towards puts and BF25 increased; long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +0.34 volatility points, to 36.01%.
03 · Catalyst check
22 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC to 23 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Confidencelow causal confidence
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.20 volatility points to 36.12% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to 41.73% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.43 volatility points to -3.50% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.50% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.34 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 14AUG26, 27JUL26; removed 23JUL26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
26JUL26, +2.01 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1M, -0.86 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, +0.41 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +0.34 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
31JUL26, +0.0879 param06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
25DEC26, +0.0683 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
36.01
35.67
+0.34 vol pts
+0.95%
2W
36.32
36.32
0.00 vol pts
0.00%
1M
36.03
35.78
+0.25 vol pts
+0.70%
3M
38.59
38.26
+0.33 vol pts
+0.86%
6M
40.84
40.78
+0.06 vol pts
+0.15%
9M
41.85
41.82
+0.03 vol pts
+0.07%
1Y
42.61
42.58
+0.03 vol pts
+0.07%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1M.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.43 volatility points to -3.50% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-1.37
-0.97
-0.40 vol pts
2W
-1.85
-1.72
-0.13 vol pts
1M
-3.64
-2.78
-0.86 vol pts
3M
-4.70
-3.95
-0.75 vol pts
6M
-4.73
-4.48
-0.25 vol pts
9M
-4.77
-4.69
-0.08 vol pts
1Y
-4.73
-4.55
-0.18 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.50% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.85
1.77
+0.08 vol pts
2W
2.49
2.08
+0.41 vol pts
1M
2.62
2.44
+0.18 vol pts
3M
2.78
2.71
+0.07 vol pts
6M
2.79
2.68
+0.11 vol pts
9M
2.67
2.61
+0.06 vol pts
1Y
2.47
2.53
-0.06 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
ATM IV change
24JUL26, -3.09 vol pts1.3d
Smile rotation
25JUL26, +1.45 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
24JUL26Expiry effect
0.3 days
65,040.99
-1074.67 USD
30.11%
-3.09 vol pts
+0.73 vol pts
-1.09 vol pts
25JUL26Expiry effect
1.3 days
65,052.42
-1068.99 USD
32.22%
-0.37 vol pts
+0.65 vol pts
-0.63 vol pts
26JUL26
2.3 days
65,066.87
-1065.73 USD
28.56%
-1.32 vol pts
+0.58 vol pts
-0.28 vol pts
31JUL26
7.3 days
65,089.44
-1092.64 USD
36.23%
-0.21 vol pts
-0.46 vol pts
+0.06 vol pts
7AUG26
14.3 days
65,144
-1091.51 USD
36.32%
+0.01 vol pts
-0.05 vol pts
+0.41 vol pts
28AUG26
35.3 days
65,303.59
-1083.25 USD
35.94%
+0.26 vol pts
-0.92 vol pts
+0.18 vol pts
25SEP26
63.3 days
65,498.53
-1098.77 USD
36.58%
+0.47 vol pts
-1.14 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
25DEC26
154.3 days
66,191.9
-1090.79 USD
40.38%
+0.08 vol pts
-0.39 vol pts
+0.07 vol pts
26MAR27
245.3 days
66,868.91
-1115.56 USD
41.50%
+0.01 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
+0.12 vol pts
25JUN27
336.3 days
67,540.25
-1163.44 USD
42.42%
+0.02 vol pts
-0.16 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
24JUL26rotation towards puts · wing steepening25JUL26rotation towards calls · wing steepening26JUL26rotation towards calls · wing steepening31JUL26rotation towards puts · wing steepening7AUG26wing steepening28AUG26rotation towards puts25SEP26rotation towards puts25DEC26limited movement26MAR27parallel shift higher25JUN27parallel shift higher
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
24JUL26
25JUL26
26JUL26
31JUL26
7AUG26
28AUG26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25DEC26; the largest sigma change occurred at 31JUL26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
24JUL26
-0.02740
-0.00890
+0.03840
-0.03820
+0.40800
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25JUL26
-0.01300
-0.01040
-0.00110
-0.01820
+0.18580
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
26JUL26
+0.00910
-0.01640
+0.01590
+0.00520
-0.00060
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
31JUL26
-0.02810
+0.02260
+0.02360
+0.01250
+0.08790
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
7AUG26
+0.00460
+0.00850
-0.04180
-0.02800
-0.06410
wing steepening
28AUG26
+0.00900
-0.00370
+0.02040
+0.02180
-0.04500
rotation towards puts
25SEP26
+0.00800
-0.00910
+0.06420
+0.06880
-0.02080
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.03800
-0.04520
+0.06830
+0.12520
-0.04310
limited movement
26MAR27
+0.03840
-0.03640
+0.05390
+0.11400
-0.05900
parallel shift higher
25JUN27
+0.01860
-0.03950
+0.05170
+0.10710
+0.01120
parallel shift higher
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
