Daily ETH options market report · 24-hour comparison

Ether options signal more one-week volatility while longer maturities hold steady

ETH 1W ATM IV rose 2.01 vol points to 43.69% over the daily comparison.

Snapshot · 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC

  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.31%1W ATM IV 43.69%1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts1W BF25 +2.73 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.78 vol pts

Notable move: ETH 1W ATM IV Δ +2.01 vol pts → 43.69% · percentile rank 27.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40).

Ether options signal more one-week volatility while longer maturities hold steady. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.
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01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Ethereum roadmap and hormuz tensions feature

The Defiant covered Buterin’s post-Hegota Ethereum vision, while Al Jazeera reported fears of renewed US-Iran fighting.

Macro

Al Jazeera reported fears of renewed fighting between the US and Iran after President Trump rejected a deal.

Crypto

The Defiant reported that Hegota’s scheduled changes target censorship resistance and wallet flexibility, with a broader vision relying on proof aggregation and open research.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.01 volatility points, to 43.69%.

RV observation windows

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

26 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC to 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 19:05 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 43.69%, 2.78 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 46.47%; 24-hour realised volatility was 25.19% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.81%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.29 volatility points to 45.41% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 53.76% (-0.02 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.15 volatility points to -0.19 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to 2.72 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.01 volatility points at 1W, to 43.69%.

Universe roll: added 1OCT26; removed 27SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

30SEP26, +6.82 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +2.01 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, +0.54 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.27 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

26MAR27, +0.1491 param
06

Largest eligible SVI rho move

24SEP27, +0.1297 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W43.6941.68+2.01 vol pts+4.82%
2W44.9243.74+1.18 vol pts+2.70%
1M47.6346.96+0.67 vol pts+1.43%
3M51.7051.66+0.04 vol pts+0.08%
6M53.7653.78-0.02 vol pts-0.04%
9M54.6554.67-0.02 vol pts-0.04%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.15 volatility points to -0.19 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-1.4 vol pts-0.6 vol pts0.1 vol pts0.9 vol pts1.7 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-0.61-1.10+0.49 vol pts
2W-0.31-0.85+0.54 vol pts
1M-0.40-0.44+0.04 vol pts
3M0.030.09-0.06 vol pts
6M0.350.59-0.24 vol pts
9M1.101.37-0.27 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to 2.72 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

2.2 vol pts2.4 vol pts2.7 vol pts2.9 vol pts3.2 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W2.732.46+0.27 vol pts
2W2.672.45+0.22 vol pts
1M2.422.36+0.06 vol pts
3M2.892.97-0.08 vol pts
6M2.912.93-0.02 vol pts
9M2.962.87+0.09 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.5d

Smile rotation

28SEP26, +12.39 vol pts
1.5d

Smile rotation

29SEP26, +5.16 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

40.1%44.1%48.2%52.2%56.2%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
28SEP26Expiry effect0.5 days2,693.89+8.15 USD35.99%+6.67 vol pts+2.13 vol pts-0.37 vol pts
29SEP26Expiry effect1.5 days2,693.92+7.90 USD39.99%+4.29 vol pts+1.26 vol pts+0.24 vol pts
30SEP262.5 days2,693.77+7.15 USD41.14%+3.00 vol pts+1.89 vol pts+0.27 vol pts
2OCT264.5 days2,694.1+7.51 USD42.70%+1.91 vol pts+0.80 vol pts+0.38 vol pts
9OCT2611.5 days2,695.63+7.38 USD44.39%+1.25 vol pts+0.32 vol pts+0.20 vol pts
16OCT2618.5 days2,697.39+7.15 USD45.52%+0.36 vol pts+0.35 vol pts+0.25 vol pts
30OCT2632.5 days2,701.06+6.89 USD47.89%+0.58 vol pts+0.03 vol pts+0.05 vol pts
27NOV2660.5 days2,709.97+7.44 USD50.87%-0.07 vol pts-0.02 vol pts+0.12 vol pts
25DEC2688.5 days2,719.25+7.21 USD51.58%-0.01 vol pts-0.06 vol pts-0.08 vol pts
26MAR27179.5 days2,749.28+8.23 USD53.72%-0.04 vol pts-0.25 vol pts-0.01 vol pts
25JUN27270.5 days2,780.06+7.74 USD54.62%-0.03 vol pts-0.28 vol pts+0.10 vol pts
24SEP27361.5 days2,810.95+8.23 USD55.41%-0.22 vol pts+0.01 vol pts+0.19 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

28SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
29SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
2OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
9OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
16OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

ETH 30-day implied volatility was 3.1 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.31.

Implied-volatility premium

ETH 30-day ATM IV was 46.77%, against VIX at 14.87: a 31.90-point spread and 3.15× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

ETH 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 48.43%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 10.79%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 33.9% of 239 prior observations.

This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.315 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.301 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 12.76, 14.87 and 17.93.

As of 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

Derivasys market-context-v1, persisted common session. Crypto 20-day RV uses sqrt(365); SPX 20-session RV uses sqrt(252). Crypto, SPX and VIX-family metric observation timestamp: 2026-09-25T20:00:00Z; benchmark source timestamp: 2026-09-25T20:00:00Z. Values and nulls are returned by MCP; as_of cutoff 2026-09-27T19:05:00Z.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-09-26 19:05:00 UTC → 2026-09-27 19:05:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

ETH 1W ATM IV 43.69% · Δ +2.01 vol pts

ETH percentile rank 27.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40)

Original report summary

Derivasys data show Ether one-week at-the-money implied volatility rose 2.01 volatility points to 43.69% over the observation window. That is volatility implied by options near Ether’s current price. The increase was concentrated at shorter maturities: Ether front-end ATM IV rose on average, while its long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged. Ether’s 24-hour spot-index return was positive 0.31%, providing a measured price comparison alongside the options move without explaining it.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: ETH 1W ATM IV 43.69% · Δ +2.01 vol pts

Skew: ETH 1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol pts

Relative value: ETH 1W IV 43.69% / 7D RV 46.47% · spread -2.78 vol pts

Vol

ETH 1W ATM IV 43.69% · Δ +2.01 vol ptspercentile rank 27.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40)

Skew

ETH 1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol ptspercentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

ETH 1W BF25 2.73 vol pts · Δ +0.27 vol ptspercentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

ETH 1W IV 43.69% / 7D RV 46.47% · spread -2.78 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 27.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 24SEP27; the largest sigma change occurred at 26MAR27.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
28SEP26-0.00620-0.02480+0.09780+0.06630+0.18140rotation towards calls, wing steepening
29SEP26+0.01980-0.01610+0.05260+0.02770-0.07350rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30SEP26+0.01410-0.00740+0.07180+0.03740-0.06670rotation towards calls, wing steepening
2OCT26-0.00190+0.00710+0.07610+0.04370-0.02080rotation towards calls, wing steepening
9OCT26-0.01470+0.01300+0.04130+0.02120+0.02760rotation towards calls, wing steepening
16OCT26-0.00860+0.01090+0.05110+0.03500-0.00380rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26-0.02460+0.01370+0.03830+0.02040+0.06880parallel shift higher
27NOV26-0.00850-0.00040+0.11800+0.08910+0.02390limited movement
25DEC26-0.04290+0.02150+0.03330-0.00230+0.12580parallel shift lower
26MAR27-0.06560+0.04000-0.00210-0.05180+0.14910limited movement
25JUN27-0.01480-0.00820+0.06420+0.06990+0.05300limited movement
24SEP27-0.04420-0.01050+0.12970+0.12510+0.12780parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-ETH ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Vega24SEP27, 10.744456 USD / vol pt
Highest Gamma28SEP26, 0.010715 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay28SEP26, -13.797799 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001911 delta / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.014743 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
ETH46.47%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

ETH · Surface cutoff 27 Sept 2026, 19:05:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 72,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-27T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-26T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.31,
  "rv24hPercent": 25.19,
  "rv7dPercent": 46.47,
  "rv30dPercent": 46.81,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 43.69,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -2.78,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 18.5,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -3.12
}

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC
Comparison snapshot
26 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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