01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ethereum roadmap and hormuz tensions feature
The Defiant covered Buterin’s post-Hegota Ethereum vision, while Al Jazeera reported fears of renewed US-Iran fighting.
Macro
Al Jazeera reported fears of renewed fighting between the US and Iran after President Trump rejected a deal.
Crypto
The Defiant reported that Hegota’s scheduled changes target censorship resistance and wallet flexibility, with a broader vision relying on proof aggregation and open research.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.01 volatility points, to 43.69%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
26 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC to 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 19:05 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 43.69%, 2.78 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 46.47%; 24-hour realised volatility was 25.19% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.81%.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.29 volatility points to 45.41% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 53.76% (-0.02 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.15 volatility points to -0.19 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to 2.72 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.01 volatility points at 1W, to 43.69%.
Universe roll: added 1OCT26; removed 27SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.