01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ethereum upgrade and treasury questions
Ether reporting covered institutional fund activity, a scheduled testnet upgrade and uncertainty over BitMine's eventual buying plans.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported slower US spot crypto ETF inflows, including Ether funds. Its Ethereum upgrade report said Glamsterdam would introduce proposer-builder separation, block-level access lists and new gas pricing, with the mainnet date unset. Separately, Cointelegraph reported that BitMine could reach its Ether supply target by early November, while Tom Lee left open whether buying would continue beyond that target.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -2.52 volatility points, to 43.85%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
28 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC to 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 21:59 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 43.85%, 1.76 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 42.09%; 24-hour realised volatility was 43.29% and 30-day realised volatility was 47.73%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.85 volatility points to 45.29% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 53.33% (-0.30 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.73 volatility points to -0.78 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.16 volatility points to 2.67 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.52 volatility points at 1W, to 43.85%.
Universe roll: added 3OCT26; removed 29SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.