01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ether options: 1W ATM IV change of -2.44 volatility points takes level to 39.26%
Ether 1W ATM IV registered a -2.44 volatility-point change to 39.26%, leading standard-tenor declines in the daily snapshot comparison. The baseline is October 5 at 17:08 UTC against October 6 at 17:08 UTC. Over that interval, 2W ATM IV fell 1.80 volatility points to 41.65% and 1M ATM IV fell 1.17 volatility points to 45.69%; the 1W, 2W and 1M ATM IV average declined 1.80 volatility points to 42.20%.
Macro
No additional qualifying evidence was identified.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported Ethereum’s Glamsterdam launch on the Sepolia testnet, a major rehearsal before mainnet activation. Kraken said its ETH and ERC20 withdrawal-delay incident was resolved after a fix. Decrypt separately reported approval of a Cboe rule permitting Volatility Shares funds targeting triple daily asset moves, including Ethereum, to list on a U.S. exchange. The developing media report does not establish trading commencement, and no measured reaction connects these developments to Ether’s options changes.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -2.44 volatility points, to 39.26%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
05 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC to 06 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 17:08 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 39.26%, 3.51 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 35.75%; 24-hour realised volatility was 27.01% and 30-day realised volatility was 45.60%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.80 volatility points to 42.20% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 52.29% (-0.67 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.24 volatility points to -0.58 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.07 volatility points to 2.75 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.44 volatility points at 1W, to 39.26%.
Universe roll: added 10OCT26; removed 6OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.