01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ether options: lower relative wing volatility as Ether 1W BF25 declines 0.45 volatility points
Ether's 1W BF25 fell 0.45 volatility points to 2.55 volatility points versus the October 4 16:29 UTC baseline, leading the October 5 options snapshot. Derivasys classified the absolute 1W BF25 change as notable, at the 73.3 percentile among 30 comparable observations. BF25 measures average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM IV. Ether's 2W BF25 also declined, extending the butterfly compression beyond 1W.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Decrypt reported another Ethereum purchase by Bitmine, bringing its holdings closer to its stated treasury target. CoinDesk separately reported that Ethereum investors faced a two-week staking exit line. Both remain provisional single-source reports: they add treasury and staking context, but neither establishes a measured link to Ether's BF25, ATM IV or skew changes.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -1.02 volatility points, to 41.83%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
04 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC to 05 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 16:29 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 41.83%, 3.00 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 38.83%; 24-hour realised volatility was 37.05% and 30-day realised volatility was 45.71%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.89 volatility points to 44.02% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 52.95% (-0.41 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.48 volatility points to -0.55 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.17 volatility points to 2.72 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.02 volatility points at 1W, to 41.83%.
Universe roll: no additions; removed 5OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.