01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ether options: wing premium widens with Ether's 2W BF25 up 0.48 points
Ether's 2W BF25 rose 0.48 volatility points to 2.92 volatility points over the daily comparison, according to Derivasys. This butterfly measures average 25-delta call and put implied volatility minus ATM implied volatility. Wing repricing diverged by maturity: Ether's 1W BF25 increased 0.42 volatility points to 3.03 volatility points, while Ether's 1M BF25 increased only 0.02 volatility points to 2.69 volatility points. Ether's 6M BF25 fell 0.25 volatility points to 2.84 volatility points. Ether's 9M BF25 fell 0.27 volatility points to 2.64 volatility points.
Macro
No additional qualifying evidence was identified.
Crypto
No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +3.57 volatility points, to 42.84%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
03 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC to 04 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 42.84%, 2.58 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 40.26%; 24-hour realised volatility was 16.07% and 30-day realised volatility was 45.36%.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +2.13 volatility points to 44.90% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 53.36% (+0.31 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.51 volatility points to -0.07 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.90 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +3.57 volatility points at 1W, to 42.84%.
Universe roll: added 8OCT26; removed 4OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.