01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ether options: 2W butterfly declines
Ether two-week BF25 fell 0.57 volatility points to 2.24 volatility points between the October 2 and October 3 snapshots at 17:58 UTC. This butterfly measure captures average 25-delta wing implied volatility minus ATM forward implied volatility, so the decline describes reduced volatility convexity across strikes.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported that Blast, once among Ethereum’s largest layer-2 networks by total value locked, was urging users to move assets to mainnet ahead of its shutdown. That development provides ecosystem context; the retrieved reporting does not establish that it drove the options changes.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +1.92 volatility points, to 39.66%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
02 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC to 03 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 17:58 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 39.66%, 1.22 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 40.88%; 24-hour realised volatility was 26.77% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.93%.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.92 volatility points to 42.88% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 53.05% (+0.02 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.14 volatility points to -0.67 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.25 volatility points to 2.66 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.92 volatility points at 1W, to 39.66%.
Universe roll: added 7OCT26; removed 3OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.