01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ether fund reporting adds context
Cointelegraph reported a reversal to Ether ETF outflows, adding institutional context to the options-market assessment.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported that Ether ETFs recorded Tuesday outflows after a preceding run of inflows.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -3.19 volatility points, to 42.90%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
29 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC to 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 42.90%, 1.22 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 41.68%; 24-hour realised volatility was 44.55% and 30-day realised volatility was 47.50%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.49 volatility points to 45.49% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 53.47% (-0.15 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.41 volatility points to -1.13 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.17 volatility points to 2.75 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -3.19 volatility points at 1W, to 42.90%.
Universe roll: added 4OCT26; removed 30SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.