01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Ether two-week BF25 rises 0.64 volatility points to 3.16%
Derivasys data show two-week BF25 rising 0.64 volatility points to 3.16 volatility points, while two-week ATM implied volatility fell 0.99 points to 44.29%. BF25 measures average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM IV: the increase signals greater wing richness relative to the centre. Across the six available headline tenors, BF25 increased by an average 0.31 points to 3.06 volatility points.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Ethereum staking developments supplied separate context. The Defiant reported that authors withdrew the staking reward-burn proposal from Hegotá and planned a separate issuance-policy process after objections over validator economics and how the change was considered. CoinDesk separately reported that a MetaMask security incident forced Ethereum staking exits, with no funds at risk according to its provisional account. Neither report establishes a measured link to the options repricing.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -0.99 volatility points, to 41.91%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC to 01 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the ETH volatility surface.
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 41.91%, 1.45 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 40.46%; 24-hour realised volatility was 39.59% and 30-day realised volatility was 47.54%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.86 volatility points to 44.62% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 53.35% (-0.12 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.19 volatility points to -1.32 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.31 volatility points to 3.06 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.99 volatility points at 1W, to 41.91%.
Universe roll: added 23OCT26, 5OCT26; removed 1OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.