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Daily ETH options market report · 24-hour comparison

Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 5.83 points as curve flattens

ETH 1W ATM IV rose 5.83 vol points to 46.00% over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Generated · Snapshot

Snapshot · 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

  • ETHSpot-index 24h -1.47%1W ATM IV 46.00%1W RR25 -4.75 vol pts1W BF25 +2.99 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -4.70 vol pts
  • ETH1W ATM IV 46.00%1W IV Δ +5.83 vol pts
Full snapshot readings
  • ETHSpot-index 24h -1.47%1W ATM IV 46.00%1W RR25 -4.75 vol pts1W BF25 +2.99 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -4.70 vol pts

Notable move: ETH 1W ATM IV Δ +5.83 vol pts → 46.00% · percentile rank 88.1% by absolute move · 1-day moves · full history (n=42).

Combined market read · daily observation window

The move in context.

ETH spot fell 1.47%; 1W ATM IV rose 5.83 volatility points to 46.00% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward puts (-1.08 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.56 points).

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-16: “Ether options: 1w BF25 butterfly falls 0.80 volatility points”

Previous publication cutoff 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 cde9dde0ad8b9273bcb635c71e36ebc7fb69d02526bdddf2186542ad704b79f8

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-16 daily edition.

  • ETH 1W ATM IV: prior change -3.48 → current change +5.83 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • ETH spot-index return: prior change +0.68 → current change -1.47 percent; direction reversed.
  • ETH 1W RR25: prior change -0.22 → current change -1.08 volatility points; same direction.
  • ETH 1W BF25: prior change -0.80 → current change +0.56 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • ETH 1W BF25 ≤ 2.43 volatility points (hold the observed endpoint) at 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 2.99 volatility points).
  • ETH 1W BF25 ≥ 3.23 volatility points (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 2.99 volatility points).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: ETH 1W ATM IV ≥ 46.00 percent at . Current level 46.00; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: ETH 1W ATM IV ≤ 40.17 percent at . Current level 46.00; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 35edfedae3f4999f8e3c5c61d9a003a682ab5806c26a2f1d3527247411b619b5

Prior artifact: /v1/eth/daily/2026-10-16/cde9dde0ad8b9273bcb635c71e36ebc7fb69d02526bdddf2186542ad704b79f8.json · SHA-256 cde9dde0ad8b9273bcb635c71e36ebc7fb69d02526bdddf2186542ad704b79f8

Consumed endpoint proof: b903af0aaaa81acfb1181389b601809c54c4ac8b1e0094e8b626dbc19742ea8d

  • ETH:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00.
  • ETH:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00.

1W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

1W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. ETH: Current 46.00, Previous 40.17.CurrentPreviousETH46.0040.170.0024.8449.68

Current: 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 5.83 points as curve flattens. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00
TenorETH currentETH previous
1W46.0040.17
2W47.8844.92
1M49.0747.56
3M50.5950.24
6M51.9451.95
9M52.8353.02
1YUnavailableUnavailable
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Ether options: 1W ATM volatility jumps 5.83 points as curve flattens

Ether 1W ATM implied volatility rose 5.83 volatility points to 46.00% between the October 16 and October 17 cutoffs. Ether 2W ATM IV increased 2.96 volatility points to 47.88%, while 1M ATM IV rose 1.51 volatility points to 49.07%. That uneven repricing reduced the 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope from +7.39 to +3.07 volatility points; the curve remained upward sloping.

The Defiant reported $320 million in Ether ETF withdrawals in its coverage of October 12–16 flows, alongside $610.7 million in aggregate withdrawals across five crypto ETF groups tracked by Farside. This developing, single-source report supplies fund-flow context, but the available evidence does not establish that those withdrawals drove Ether’s daily options repricing.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +5.83 volatility points, to 46.00%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC to 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 46.00%, 4.70 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 50.70%; 24-hour realised volatility was 39.10% and 30-day realised volatility was 44.99%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +3.43 volatility points to 47.65% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 51.94% (-0.01 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.48 volatility points to -2.59 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.25 volatility points to 3.21 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +5.83 volatility points at 1W, to 46.00%.

24h spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -1.47% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -3.98% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 21OCT26; removed 17OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

20OCT26, -8.60 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +5.83 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -1.08 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.56 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

26MAR27, +0.1390 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

23OCT26, -0.0555 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W46.0040.17+5.83 vol pts+14.51%
2W47.8844.92+2.96 vol pts+6.59%
1M49.0747.56+1.51 vol pts+3.17%
3M50.5950.24+0.35 vol pts+0.70%
6M51.9451.95-0.01 vol pts-0.02%
9M52.8353.02-0.19 vol pts-0.36%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.48 volatility points to -2.59 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-5.3 vol pts-3.8 vol pts-2.3 vol pts-0.7 vol pts0.8 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-4.75-3.67-1.08 vol pts
2W-3.32-3.06-0.26 vol pts
1M-2.75-2.24-0.51 vol pts
3M-1.48-1.16-0.32 vol pts
6M-0.65-0.42-0.23 vol pts
9M0.220.05+0.17 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 increased, averaging +0.25 volatility points to 3.21 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

2.2 vol pts2.6 vol pts2.9 vol pts3.3 vol pts3.6 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W2.992.43+0.56 vol pts
2W3.022.66+0.36 vol pts
1M3.293.18+0.11 vol pts
3M3.403.36+0.04 vol pts
6M3.373.20+0.17 vol pts
9M3.082.97+0.11 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

1.6d

ATM IV change

19OCT26, +10.02 vol pts
0.6d

Smile rotation

18OCT26, -9.13 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

38.6%42.6%46.6%50.6%54.6%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
18OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days2,404.7-35.49 USD32.30%+5.98 vol pts-1.88 vol pts+0.42 vol pts
19OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days2,405.25-35.35 USD37.14%+10.02 vol pts-1.46 vol pts+0.52 vol pts
20OCT262.6 days2,405.28-35.54 USD41.44%+7.66 vol pts-2.50 vol pts+0.66 vol pts
23OCT265.6 days2,406.31-35.53 USD45.18%+5.55 vol pts-1.54 vol pts+0.64 vol pts
30OCT2612.6 days2,408.24-35.37 USD47.48%+2.70 vol pts-0.67 vol pts+0.25 vol pts
6NOV2619.6 days2,410.1-35.62 USD48.94%+2.28 vol pts+0.21 vol pts+0.29 vol pts
27NOV2640.6 days2,415.92-35.82 USD49.13%+1.03 vol pts-0.87 vol pts+0.01 vol pts
25DEC2668.6 days2,424.35-35.80 USD49.81%+0.51 vol pts-0.24 vol pts-0.06 vol pts
26MAR27159.6 days2,452.21-35.35 USD51.61%+0.06 vol pts-0.43 vol pts+0.19 vol pts
25JUN27250.6 days2,482.15-36.23 USD52.59%-0.19 vol pts+0.13 vol pts+0.15 vol pts
24SEP27341.6 days2,512-35.92 USD53.38%-0.21 vol pts+0.23 vol pts+0.01 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

18OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
19OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
20OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
23OCT26parallel shift higher · rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26parallel shift higher · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

ETH 30-day implied volatility was 2.4 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.57.

Implied-volatility premium

ETH 30-day ATM IV was 48.54%, against VIX at 19.99: a 28.55-point spread and 2.43× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

ETH reported crypto realised volatility was 32.39%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 10.45%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 9.1% of 254 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.570 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.264 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 20.12, 19.99 and 20.50.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1. All displayed metrics have observationTimestamp=2026-10-16T20:00:00Z; freshness=fresh, ageSeconds=73860, evaluatedAt=2026-10-17T16:31:00Z. Ingested at 2026-10-16T22:30:50.861284Z; qualityStatus=valid; alignmentToleranceSeconds=600. IV and RV levels/spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; return correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentile ranks use percentile_rank. Crypto ATM IV is the 30-calendar-day fixed tenor nearest the US close, ACT/365 convention. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session log returns and sqrt(252). RV comparisons preserve these different annualisation clocks. Benchmarks: ^GSPC, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M from yahoo_finance; crypto measurements from Derivasys. Prior-only empirical RV percentiles. Returned IV spread and ratio percentiles were null, with 33 observations each.

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-16 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-17 16:31:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

ETH 1W ATM IV 46.00% · Δ +5.83 vol pts

ETH percentile rank 88.1% by absolute move · full history (n=42); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-16

Original report summary

Ether 1W ATM implied volatility rose 5.83 volatility points to 46.00% between the October 16 and October 17 cutoffs, outpacing increases at 2W and 1M. The front-end increase flattened the still upward-sloping ATM volatility curve. The Defiant’s report of Ether ETF withdrawals provides institutional context, without establishing a cause.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: ETH 1W ATM IV 46.00% · Δ +5.83 vol pts

Skew: ETH 1W RR25 -4.75 vol pts · Δ -1.08 vol pts

Relative value: ETH 1W IV 46.00% / 7D RV 50.70% · spread -4.70 vol pts

Vol

ETH 1W ATM IV 46.00% · Δ +5.83 vol ptspercentile rank 88.1% by absolute move · full history (n=42); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-16

Skew

ETH 1W RR25 -4.75 vol pts · Δ -1.08 vol ptspercentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-16 to 2026-10-16

Wings

ETH 1W BF25 2.99 vol pts · Δ +0.56 vol ptspercentile rank 81.0% by absolute move · full history (n=42); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-16

IV versus RV

ETH 1W IV 46.00% / 7D RV 50.70% · spread -4.70 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 88.1% by absolute move · full history (n=42); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-16

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-16 to 2026-10-16

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 81.0% by absolute move · full history (n=42); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-16

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 35edfedae3f4999f8e3c5c61d9a003a682ab5806c26a2f1d3527247411b619b5.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
ETH 1W atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:61fc23e6130d3338b313e143eb34f8ba00bfe665cdb25f09aa72be6a1264c47c
ETH 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:36cb5c0dc3038465aa5505396198f02eb43abadb49b6becd334a1316b7f8816f
ETH 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6ffc926357e1e2233ef7bd3b13cc3290af0d83cfbfd706b93d6b4d2c6ba9927c
ETH 1W bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:da3a76e99f005e2c312b0be0a0e4d59b12da9ed473553650f3471278f7f82ef4
ETH 1W bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:df6c1b0e3b80e5a0a2fe62dbb453945b937f3fd07f422cbb71b6cddcb7c4dd0d
ETH 1W bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:84666312b7f6bb9cb0aefb6ed81a2b81792a9b67fef1e765f5548d2aa6334bc5
ETH 1W rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1e72d677bd0552330d1c547335f7594d95bf2885d806968d04a02618d344ba20
ETH 1W rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:623691425c738ebe6c973822ddaa644bbc8aa84f296a98034f2c4ef0d0eace74
ETH 1W rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:23c60ab6e8d0be7d51ecebd985a6711ed6a82d699c9e3e64fa1cbef9affb3aba
ETH 2W atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1e833e78eeb5a10d00afd829b8f0fc350c78c8214ba669de54a6a827e3f84132
ETH 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1f2df49c35482383a26bfe864cc48e3534655b489f983ae2df49ad490f64d56f
ETH 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:24dd2f458a32594f749e9a7075f2df6ff53fc091a3d340001a7de961887035d2
ETH 2W bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0aafc34d3afa864620fd824d79ce56304e49cad926c7611e83fe316aa2c5b338
ETH 2W bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:9f9c7efbd4d1c15a4ecedc6d8907e1af82015da8ddd8519b76de38eb00ab8902
ETH 2W bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8667ef55e9d4fb3ed541565f6ba757ca480b8b3e386a32d250631e61064c22ae
ETH 2W rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:40e1f7120715acf8083583c3ddb4944993207af2d33b012c828ea34729cf8915
ETH 2W rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:00a27ce19c2f0e8f4c537c575b6ff7b9b97ef22c806543a02e949c0750803355
ETH 2W rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:71c5fdfa78e3010b9c0097ff4a208cb58eef3ad90d8aa83c78703e47e0ef480c
ETH 1M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a1591097b8812448e5885a739f6963332e24a0740739fcb51facdd484a207d6c
ETH 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5f68558cc4f6ffa6005bc75f2fe4ed90ad6a795394a5701d91a691f59242641d
ETH 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5a97bb49359232292d5c47712e4925bfb7f638653b6309bbab7ccd0ca9c30a54
ETH 1M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:049acea3c2a06e602942deb47657db13ca2878284e8d542841e0d8297c549ee0
ETH 1M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:daf6441481e12870a0308ea8d8fec6283205af0e443c8e34d5d470d44127fee4
ETH 1M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ad5071513cc64f8e1d622912e97e07ba34c38c9c04c32e5dbba03d6821adf004
ETH 1M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e785862a98246e3bbd99b134ffba96b35395ded4caf49c29d17469e5a2cc95d2
ETH 1M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4faef0b83cfa47e9dd695f469d16450fb5ea6cd0d25b388f77bc74aad5359d76
ETH 1M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b43f26fa7f1303ba383e31d26da78911d1961c07583220119808d10495f3b3ba
ETH 3M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:07a2a38d35b67d2ef38eb3976544fa6e6d0d452f35ea8380c57e8541e1829ab0
ETH 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1798460c7cc8ae110dcb8d6681d934d451a1a9b515169cd0a5df0e98af656d39
ETH 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6d5e74c0d78c8f23a84e671f64d56b60de167c7bcca96af25e889d4332aa8ef7
ETH 3M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ab14e119a6401bf5417f4c44e38ba0bb57ecbf5143590d0c0c3747973f903285
ETH 3M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:becf96b77796fa7cad0a318ccd6033afe4b018963c6ccd83f40bad856c82e8a0
ETH 3M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a38e7ecac045a94a7a4858a261b3ffbefeaeda659371d7acd15bf61842e8b596
ETH 3M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:43d7e4ef99b0558cfd9907faf524de33916691adc98e139315c127c46675a66d
ETH 3M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fd3edd552de9ed9287205ff95be739bf594e42a933ce4692d40aa1cd7264c1db
ETH 3M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f4427ae9e4b14dd0a0d694c3cb75437eb0c0b68d8bc26cdf27484b1968642248
ETH 6M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cee95e99b43aeabfcd1e00a3ba884134368220f17947ab0f866c44ba362dcb73
ETH 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:da8bcca0614161cb37ac1a60410571c0daa77219eb10d2086dcb72bafecc1c02
ETH 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d89b56e233394d0bc06e581fe823ce73990fe9514a54749f3cba2ae2b318b5b1
ETH 6M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d9ac5a836d982802843ae5526fdff761783ecf71a91f4770c830f23f1bee0780
ETH 6M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1a4865d8a8561cd19b3185bad470308d35a04cf4ff0d918edfa49fb746c54955
ETH 6M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:9b11a0f00d49cdbb4f3645ac3fcb5990dd452c724eba67d24af1d56d3ec62fbc
ETH 6M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:784c53efe13fd4423472bb7d7f8633433d7d13f548c9f482459f3cdea2595f90
ETH 6M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2599525c884c3b8300ac6dd4d3ad7150b681fd89dae17a210a425ec8ad31c326
ETH 6M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ea23f83533ea13484baf3244208018b4d824c562de79aec33cb480f2ad1e0744
ETH 9M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:87b0f82434319af1d2f4708ede27698171539ea2a205a75936fbcb6b272e13fe
ETH 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b3bc9e2e1e2ed850c8ca8ee4f5894a9ea4b996b7aeeb3e7f899bb67fb9fabfa2
ETH 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3e5ad96c2b2f19164bbb6dcd3a74276fcfa2bd1edb8076bfabd199a758a84ca4
ETH 9M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f6bd5f1f36bcf189ced1e350ea7bd268c2dce64fdf7d600159860de00cf2f484
ETH 9M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:75e997215b9749afa923be797f543f48f529fc60a22c868006c91d480e6378be
ETH 9M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a70dd249d945dfab2fa7ef582cf30920828f568e56774905bcfc5e9c919fb38f
ETH 9M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
2026-09-16T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:67193cec993ceab156a3773df238ebe841782fe58aaf1679c24764114af17072
ETH 9M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3bc1633e87293d7834c1311a8839609d9d20a096041f07ed55c1968a4a217125
ETH 9M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-16
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:63349cd59a63533f193a3786a0eb00f4899109e792e628a695c64ad9c26f92e7
ETH 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
ETH 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 26MAR27; the largest sigma change occurred at 23OCT26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
18OCT26+0.00320-0.00360+0.02970+0.02290-0.00760rotation towards puts, wing steepening
19OCT26-0.00190-0.00390-0.01300-0.00980+0.02710rotation towards puts, wing steepening
20OCT26+0.00420+0.00080-0.03510-0.01270-0.02280rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26+0.00880+0.00310-0.02950-0.00990-0.05550parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26-0.01620+0.01280+0.02200+0.01930+0.03350parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts
6NOV26-0.00210+0.00440+0.05330+0.03430-0.00610parallel shift higher
27NOV26-0.01040+0.00460+0.05380+0.04990+0.03390rotation towards puts
25DEC26-0.01510+0.00690+0.04260+0.03050+0.05010parallel shift higher
26MAR27+0.01950-0.02740+0.13900+0.14980-0.03130limited movement
25JUN27+0.00330-0.01180+0.08410+0.08470-0.00750parallel shift lower
24SEP27-0.01510-0.00290+0.04800+0.02990+0.03720parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-ETH ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma18OCT26, 0.012213 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay18OCT26, -10.09284 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001867 delta / vol pt
Highest Vega24SEP27, 9.377613 USD / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.011714 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
ETH50.70%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 17 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot
16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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