Daily ETH options market report · 24-hour comparison

Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points

Name: ETH options surface changes for 2026-10-18
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

ETH 1W ATM IV rose 7.13 vol points to 53.13% over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 18 Oct 2026, 20:21 UTC · Generated 18 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Snapshot · 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

ETHSpot-index 24h -1.64%1W ATM IV 53.13%1W RR25 -7.46 vol pts1W BF25 +3.80 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +0.71 vol pts

ETH1W ATM IV 53.13%1W IV Δ +7.13 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

ETHSpot-index 24h -1.64%1W ATM IV 53.13%1W RR25 -7.46 vol pts1W BF25 +3.80 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +0.71 vol pts

Notable move: ETH 1W ATM IV Δ +7.13 vol pts → 53.13% · percentile rank 93.0% by absolute move · 1-day moves · full history (n=43).

Combined market read · daily observation window

The move in context.

ETH spot fell 1.64%; 1W ATM IV rose 7.13 volatility points to 53.13% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward puts (-2.71 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.81 points).

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 18 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-17: “Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 5.83 points as curve flattens”

Previous publication cutoff 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 35edfedae3f4999f8e3c5c61d9a003a682ab5806c26a2f1d3527247411b619b5

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-17 daily edition.

ETH 1W ATM IV: prior change +5.83 → current change +7.13 volatility points; same direction.
ETH spot-index return: prior change -1.47 → current change -1.64 percent; same direction.
ETH 1W RR25: prior change -1.08 → current change -2.71 volatility points; same direction.
ETH 1W BF25: prior change +0.56 → current change +0.81 volatility points; same direction.

ETH 1W ATM IV ≥ 46.00 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 18 Oct, 16:31 UTC: met (observed 53.13 percent).
ETH 1W ATM IV ≤ 40.17 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 18 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 53.13 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: ETH 1W ATM IV ≥ 53.13 percent at 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 53.13; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: ETH 1W ATM IV ≤ 46.00 percent at 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 53.13; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 4f142099ab54540de5c7b73f09a31e207837394b2cf2653cbd6b67fb80d73ba3

Prior artifact: /v1/eth/daily/2026-10-17/35edfedae3f4999f8e3c5c61d9a003a682ab5806c26a2f1d3527247411b619b5.json · SHA-256 35edfedae3f4999f8e3c5c61d9a003a682ab5806c26a2f1d3527247411b619b5

Consumed endpoint proof: e5f7d515cde18db0c225ebb135276f0a3a0ea8031e2d2d8c893e8ae1d384dfd1

ETH:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00.
ETH:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00.

Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Chart reading: ETH +7.13 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: The reading measures ATM implied volatility at the chart’s stated tenor.
Combined surface read: ATM IV rose (ETH); RR25 moved toward puts (ETH); BF25 wing premium increased (ETH); 1W IV was above 7D RV (ETH).

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Sunday 18 October

Ether options: 1W ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points

Ether's 1W ATM IV moved higher by 7.13 volatility points between October 17 and October 18 at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. Ether's 1W ATM IV reached 53.13%, up from 46.00%. The absolute Ether 1W ATM IV daily move ranked at the 93rd percentile among 43 matching observations with endpoints spanning August 29 to October 17, 2026.

In provisional, single-source reporting, The Block said Cysic suspended its bridge after unauthorized token minting and that an attacker moved proceeds to Ethereum through Mayan, deBridge and SWFT's Bridgers. The report provides Ethereum activity context, but no clear measured link connects the incident to Ether's options repricing.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Cysic suspends bridge after attacker mints tokens and moves $727,000 to EthereumThe Block · 16:07 UTC

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +7.13 volatility points, to 53.13%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 53.13%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 52.42%; 24-hour realised volatility was 42.24% and 30-day realised volatility was 44.54%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +4.63 volatility points to 52.28% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 52.35% (+0.41 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.29 volatility points to -3.88 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.18 volatility points to 3.40 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +7.13 volatility points at 1W, to 53.13%.

24h spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -1.64% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -6.98% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 22OCT26; removed 18OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

21OCT26, -12.82 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +7.13 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -2.71 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.81 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

24SEP27, +0.2530 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

24SEP27, -0.1496 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	53.13	46.00	+7.13 vol pts	+15.50%
2W	52.32	47.88	+4.44 vol pts	+9.27%
1M	51.38	49.07	+2.31 vol pts	+4.71%
3M	51.51	50.59	+0.92 vol pts	+1.82%
6M	52.35	51.94	+0.41 vol pts	+0.79%
9M	52.98	52.83	+0.15 vol pts	+0.28%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.29 volatility points to -3.88 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-7.46	-4.75	-2.71 vol pts
2W	-5.51	-3.32	-2.19 vol pts
1M	-3.90	-2.75	-1.15 vol pts
3M	-1.80	-1.48	-0.32 vol pts
6M	-0.73	-0.65	-0.08 vol pts
9M	-0.08	0.22	-0.30 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 increased, averaging +0.18 volatility points to 3.40 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	3.80	2.99	+0.81 vol pts
2W	3.51	3.02	+0.49 vol pts
1M	3.38	3.29	+0.09 vol pts
3M	3.28	3.40	-0.12 vol pts
6M	3.01	3.37	-0.36 vol pts
9M	2.78	3.08	-0.30 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

19OCT26, -42.30 vol pts

1.6d

Smile rotation

20OCT26, -16.31 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
19OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	2,361.49	-43.76 USD	61.26%	+24.12 vol pts	-7.85 vol pts	+1.27 vol pts
20OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	2,361.67	-43.61 USD	57.38%	+15.94 vol pts	-5.25 vol pts	+2.33 vol pts
21OCT26	2.6 days	2,362.29	-43.29 USD	56.96%	+13.16 vol pts	-4.98 vol pts	+1.74 vol pts
23OCT26	4.6 days	2,362.54	-43.77 USD	54.53%	+9.35 vol pts	-3.49 vol pts	+1.13 vol pts
30OCT26	11.6 days	2,364.15	-44.09 USD	52.00%	+4.52 vol pts	-2.58 vol pts	+0.60 vol pts
6NOV26	18.6 days	2,366.11	-43.99 USD	52.71%	+3.77 vol pts	-2.34 vol pts	+0.16 vol pts
27NOV26	39.6 days	2,371.89	-44.03 USD	50.84%	+1.71 vol pts	-0.61 vol pts	+0.05 vol pts
25DEC26	67.6 days	2,380.59	-43.76 USD	51.00%	+1.19 vol pts	-0.61 vol pts	+0.09 vol pts
26MAR27	158.6 days	2,407.79	-44.42 USD	52.14%	+0.53 vol pts	+0.01 vol pts	-0.39 vol pts
25JUN27	249.6 days	2,438.43	-43.72 USD	52.73%	+0.14 vol pts	-0.28 vol pts	-0.28 vol pts
24SEP27	340.6 days	2,467.64	-44.36 USD	53.52%	+0.14 vol pts	-0.37 vol pts	-0.33 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

19OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

20OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

21OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards puts

6NOV26rotation towards puts

27NOV26parallel shift higher · rotation towards puts

25DEC26parallel shift higher · rotation towards puts

26MAR27parallel shift higher

25JUN27parallel shift higher

24SEP27parallel shift higher

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

19OCT26

20OCT26

21OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

6NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

ETH 30-day implied volatility was 2.4 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.57.

Implied-volatility premium

ETH 30-day ATM IV was 48.54%, against VIX at 19.99: a 28.55-point spread and 2.43× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

ETH 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 32.39%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 10.45%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 9.1% of 254 prior observations.

This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.570 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.264 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 20.12, 19.99 and 20.50.

Mixed-horizon comparison: crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and √365 annualisation; SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and √252. The spread and its historical rank describe this mixed recipe, not a matched-horizon relative-value signal.

As of 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1. Crypto snapshot and benchmark timestamps: 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z; ingestion: 2026-10-16T22:30:50.861284Z. Quality valid; freshness fresh, age 160260 seconds evaluated at 2026-10-18T16:31:00Z; alignment tolerance 600 seconds. IV is a 30-calendar-day fixed tenor nearest the US close, ACT/365 convention. Volatility levels and spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252). Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Sources: Derivasys surface/canonical crypto index and Yahoo Finance ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M, ^GSPC. Other returned cross-asset readings: ivSpreadChange1d=-3.4500006866455095 volatility_points; ivRatioChange1d=-0.5158929547799871 ratio_change; rvSpreadChange1d=-0.4787300674072199 volatility_points; rvRatioChange1d=-0.23372592754477317 ratio_change; ivSpreadPercentile=null and ivRatioPercentile=null, each sampleCount=33; returnCorrelation30Percentile=59.030837004405285, sampleCount=227; returnCorrelation60Percentile=5.9880239520958085, sampleCount=167. Level/change metric sampleCount values are null.

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-17 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-18 16:31:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

ETH 1W ATM IV 53.13% · Δ +7.13 vol pts

ETH percentile rank 93.0% by absolute move · full history (n=43); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-17

Original report summary

Ether's 1W ATM implied volatility climbed 7.13 volatility points to 53.13% over the daily window, according to Derivasys data. The increase exceeded the 1M ATM IV rise of 2.31 volatility points, pushing weekly implied volatility above monthly volatility. One-week skew also shifted further toward puts.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: ETH 1W ATM IV 53.13% · Δ +7.13 vol pts

Skew: ETH 1W RR25 -7.46 vol pts · Δ -2.71 vol pts

Relative value: ETH 1W IV 53.13% / 7D RV 52.42% · spread +0.71 vol pts

Vol

ETH 1W ATM IV 53.13% · Δ +7.13 vol ptspercentile rank 93.0% by absolute move · full history (n=43); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-17

Skew

ETH 1W RR25 -7.46 vol pts · Δ -2.71 vol ptspercentile rank 95.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-17

Wings

ETH 1W BF25 3.80 vol pts · Δ +0.81 vol ptspercentile rank 91.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-17

IV versus RV

ETH 1W IV 53.13% / 7D RV 52.42% · spread +0.71 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 93.0% by absolute move · full history (n=43); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-17

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 95.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-17

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 91.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-17

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 4f142099ab54540de5c7b73f09a31e207837394b2cf2653cbd6b67fb80d73ba3.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
ETH 1W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b2c7afe21d58de002e22d5d76c36f55012dd4cbb3897fdca861fc4300630d78b`
ETH 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5bc6220875bde2bf2ce66f6ae1c0cb896d27475d4ce51ab7d978d1e48067825f`
ETH 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2b38647366d09ec508db76f30ea430e0b1b056eecd9eba0ec056e7987c2674fe`
ETH 1W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:714d5013e01e5185b8e401b7c4b499b873905b918ba5c67487027c91b44cee9b`
ETH 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7525c7f45747ff24b80548457fb5b6dbc4dc52ae3198f39516a6bcb96d83ed82`
ETH 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5c71e4d33f8102bd0c1bf0d49ca1a28f0f1baeff67ada5ac22d28da9019f0e60`
ETH 1W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1f08d0bd18a4a7e664e052ba35c3eca119e60ef7f606c242878dda13b0de9c23`
ETH 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:363d831a1ae0e3e6e25024a9abaac583d91658400e64075fe3b6d093b4f789dd`
ETH 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:dd2495e5e5f4f6266b01379e913215f4b4a4aef391278490412fe7428544989b`
ETH 2W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d33325e8afd3c6d9a00f7abc3cd333906bbf8ea8e7d290b1f109676e55459a1a`
ETH 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6e888a2ac29dd09467cf983d20db9c1dd6c785d817069d96d6b73a95fba59574`
ETH 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5613a981901f2601e8e71991acc7a11fc55298d0aa10e6eeed9519094b16bd34`
ETH 2W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:32290af1474fc70f763ff65b4f1df4ad4d421d089b130efa357a5b7ccc45f823`
ETH 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ec732dacc1dbc94ffab010ab64b7ea47d07486666dbae422eb16c8dccd3c3294`
ETH 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a41074fbd76f30dc340ce194265f8ad7652137632a3f82ff5d1ec5646ce33eba`
ETH 2W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a343ed6ccdb5bc1f507af341392b7bd4ffe53fbdd49f4b2669682cc4954ef65a`
ETH 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a4a12dafd4b810616b277bae530bfa8b61ceebded5fc88ed777b9a664b400504`
ETH 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4c8d21be63c13b553990266d75aced776909713a00978882b66fc2bc888a94f4`
ETH 1M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4c2696e7ce8758eaa9b8db3f7ca03cb63dd1740bae9de83d0c1feb2421d9e0c8`
ETH 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bb707a0ac1550c89181533b3140f9f578cef0c8bd3fc81278f04eee1a42eb475`
ETH 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:14f8dd27fa000b3a2d6506790eba01ce7f8a2fdf98e51d3fa52db514b953baf8`
ETH 1M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:32782d4860b53961f6850c31e3419f2c6747f83693a08ce7328c90cad232e598`
ETH 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4bf105d548e39d9b55cede6f3d7267b0976f8582eea58bdc2eb07e01c5aa6f77`
ETH 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b6690eedb6a501ae60cf34974be4ad7db702fbb6d29bc10c8774a4f6c5e7bf3d`
ETH 1M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fdf882547f96962ce83103365ae70f047fe6b15000764a2607c6a5d7bb5393ea`
ETH 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:88cb51abee4750ea3d849c013ee721cca48ff5c6938c9c7ee8f7deb4a6579512`
ETH 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:47b52bc218399212324b9f2e722891d12c390dd59861d4df702b3a0f7a3a1f0b`
ETH 3M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:09c17b62d1050e94ca958211041ec573fca5987fd8f2ee3a052342ef44ba7c93`
ETH 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:60257ef9ff364210d39c798be372d9e06ba57ddde0bc8d96c41204db1a92e7bc`
ETH 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:22bde511ad3a3036f845f97dd467ae1b989879b24bc8fd4b0653c517e0a1ce07`
ETH 3M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9c4dcb58d27225e8b6561e1de1f9d693bd82dd75e4cbcea6641213411efc1640`
ETH 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6bddbfffadcdd2739747c8884d5fe86e7890ba7260b12b38021e1d999568670a`
ETH 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b5aecfd404796e1724766d4a101043444278ddef05f54886c9c3c73c676410c3`
ETH 3M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:650ef8588c2c989404d743a80de716a4639332e484088e2ae4b5d024bbdd6280`
ETH 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3d4d1a7bbef24fb8ae5d6bb581eed983e5a957b7f6a083e0fecd56e9d3670a30`
ETH 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1c3ccf51e39efc9ea7924377e8a1c1dd7b1c3e470fcaa9ae5e8018a9be599b0a`
ETH 6M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:248b78d34be5e2fd19e0a7b846b0cd7ca8f8c698938637646feed2502d71978c`
ETH 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b1513b529517f678b3e954988480c059adb8bf1a62194b705a0d6776cdfaa3d9`
ETH 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d4379f1d7110d94f0169306c3e363657ced0f3c92f132a04843ff6f8daadc5a3`
ETH 6M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c74997632cdd6105eb70eed1045ad33c6f8b8607b29afa278cb412426f0be3fc`
ETH 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1fd95300250a67b806a6a1687684dac92f8856d9ac7f87f07f181faa1693b346`
ETH 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6e2d8cbfe956758f9ef9bbd87169f1ad17ecb42c2e97ecccd5eed00396268034`
ETH 6M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c3e050b5f90e58ce01028e33c0f3837c1b31829b1073819c96f55fe3a6d458a6`
ETH 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ef395acfa24ecb79fafc611359480e8a9879c50c03518d9b22d3a9c54a71760b`
ETH 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f7ada78d365ba588c004210251974ebb272c73b63d7c1bfada4fa63174501725`
ETH 9M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4d1339f9a3aca08739bf591f51479eecff5b4b9fe637485a955fdf9add78230b`
ETH 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2367b80936bb006a16c5de917e9eb7c55ed05af55df3588173a96039dd2f197f`
ETH 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b9fc6ddacb955718bed70341fc7a32dc854d0e54c0b7b4f46df930cbbfbaab4a`
ETH 9M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4401af5037a49b92c95e72f185ffd889080328ad62e2361c50f924a49f307a4b`
ETH 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0d447657fa083b5ae0ae265eaf662fae66347d39b7f4a22cd0b7b2503ef694cf`
ETH 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:34830dc91c6f2562e4046326ba3db3f864c2fce9f749db060852db96f98553db`
ETH 9M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17 2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fa326da4dc6b09347054de7dccfaaaa6923b74601c68d7f5d594535f8b9c7443`
ETH 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	43 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8b7e332763c3bee40ae17669798da7b35e756284afe24abcfac3a85d9604caee`
ETH 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	47 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:29ceb9f710d8a5a805a362fabd18552f1599f40984a714cdb013aa7a31b31277`
ETH 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 24SEP27; the largest sigma change occurred at 24SEP27.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
19OCT26	+0.08240	-0.08290	-0.21710	-0.03090	-0.28360	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
20OCT26	+0.06850	-0.04740	-0.06330	+0.02900	-0.28490	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
21OCT26	+0.05420	-0.03770	+0.01430	+0.05610	-0.21090	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26	+0.04790	-0.03290	+0.06010	+0.06480	-0.16580	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26	+0.05700	-0.03250	+0.07310	+0.07660	-0.18930	rotation towards puts
6NOV26	+0.00560	-0.00530	-0.06930	-0.02110	+0.00110	rotation towards puts
27NOV26	+0.00750	-0.00490	-0.06620	-0.03560	-0.00980	parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts
25DEC26	+0.01340	-0.00690	-0.05270	-0.02030	-0.03190	parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts
26MAR27	-0.02160	+0.01310	-0.10940	-0.11900	+0.08180	parallel shift higher
25JUN27	-0.03560	+0.03570	-0.13980	-0.16840	+0.07120	parallel shift higher
24SEP27	-0.15100	+0.10210	-0.14960	-0.31470	+0.25300	parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-ETH ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma19OCT26, 0.006559 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay19OCT26, -18.803008 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001864 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 9.197806 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.011486 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
ETH	52.42%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 18 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Live dashboard All reports Daily metrics data Latest ETH daily Latest weekly API Volatility surface guide What is SVI? Risk reversals Butterflies Local volatility Variance swaps

The move in context.

Previous publication · research context

Prior watch: measured outcome

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market event

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Get reports by email