Daily ETH options market report · 24-hour comparison

Ether options: 1w butterfly BF25 falls 0.85 volatility points

Name: ETH options surface changes for 2026-10-19
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

ETH 1W BF25 fell 0.85 vol points to 2.95 vol points over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 19 Oct 2026, 21:34 UTC · Generated 19 Oct 2026, 17:14 UTC · Snapshot 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Snapshot · 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

ETHSpot-index 24h +1.53%1W ATM IV 48.03%1W RR25 -5.01 vol pts1W BF25 +2.95 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -5.86 vol pts

ETH1W ATM IV 48.03%1W BF25 Δ -0.85 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

ETHSpot-index 24h +1.53%1W ATM IV 48.03%1W RR25 -5.01 vol pts1W BF25 +2.95 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -5.86 vol pts

Notable move: ETH 1W BF25 Δ -0.85 vol pts → +2.95 vol pts · percentile rank 91.7% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=24).

Combined market read · daily observation window

The move in context.

ETH spot rose 1.53%; 1W ATM IV fell 5.10 volatility points to 48.03% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward calls (+2.45 points); BF25 wing premium decreased (-0.85 points).

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 18 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-18: “Ether options: 1w ATM volatility jumps 7.13 points”

Previous publication cutoff 18 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 18 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 4f142099ab54540de5c7b73f09a31e207837394b2cf2653cbd6b67fb80d73ba3

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-18 daily edition.

ETH 1W ATM IV: prior change +7.13 → current change -5.10 volatility points; direction reversed.
ETH spot-index return: prior change -1.64 → current change +1.53 percent; direction reversed.
ETH 1W RR25: prior change -2.71 → current change +2.45 volatility points; direction reversed.
ETH 1W BF25: prior change +0.81 → current change -0.85 volatility points; direction reversed.

ETH 1W ATM IV ≥ 53.13 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 48.03 percent).
ETH 1W ATM IV ≤ 46.00 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 48.03 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: ETH 1W BF25 ≤ 2.95 volatility points at 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 2.95; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: ETH 1W BF25 ≥ 3.80 volatility points at 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 2.95; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 21e668a72e6c431464fb7cc15d550617fbc0830fb77aad5c8c6e2e2df4be40ad

Prior artifact: /v1/eth/daily/2026-10-18/4f142099ab54540de5c7b73f09a31e207837394b2cf2653cbd6b67fb80d73ba3.json · SHA-256 4f142099ab54540de5c7b73f09a31e207837394b2cf2653cbd6b67fb80d73ba3

Consumed endpoint proof: 0035ac7910934e3ff487f96b88039161f8d8f619982f0603f3092cf560142a14

ETH:bf25:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00.
ETH:bf25:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00.

Ether options: 1w butterfly BF25 falls 0.85 volatility points. BF25 term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. BF25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Chart reading: ETH -0.85 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: Positive BF25 places average wing IV above ATM IV; negative BF25 places it below.
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (ETH); RR25 moved toward calls (ETH); BF25 wing premium decreased (ETH); 1W IV was below 7D RV (ETH).

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Monday 19 October

Ether options: 1W butterfly BF25 falls 0.85 volatility points

Ether's 1W BF25 butterfly measure fell 0.85 volatility points to 2.95 points between the October 18 and October 19 cutoffs at 16:31 UTC. The lower 1W BF25 level indicates flatter butterfly curvature.

For business context, The Defiant reported that SharpLink said it had deployed $400 million across Ether.fi and Lido. The account linked the allocations to its August plan to stake through Lido and hold wstETH with Anchorage. This remains provisional, single-source reporting of a company claim; no clear measured link connects it to the options changes.

Macro

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

SharpLink Says It Deployed $400 Million Across Ether.fi and LidoThe Defiant · 16:12 UTC

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -5.10 volatility points, to 48.03%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 48.03%, 5.86 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 53.89%; 24-hour realised volatility was 52.11% and 30-day realised volatility was 44.80%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -3.24 volatility points to 49.04% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 52.05% (-0.30 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.76 volatility points to -3.12 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.28 volatility points to 3.12 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -5.10 volatility points at 1W, to 48.03%.

24h spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was +1.53% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -5.07% over seven days.

Two-day RR25 whipsaw

ETH 1W RR25 adjacent daily moves were -2.71 then +2.45 volatility points; gross movement 5.16 versus net -0.26. 0 strict zero crossings. Opposite moves meet the operational whipsaw inspection threshold.

Universe roll: no additions; removed 19OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

23OCT26, +7.88 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -5.10 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, +2.45 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, -0.85 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

24SEP27, -0.1854 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

6NOV26, +0.0950 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	48.03	53.13	-5.10 vol pts	-9.60%
2W	49.50	52.32	-2.82 vol pts	-5.39%
1M	49.59	51.38	-1.79 vol pts	-3.48%
3M	50.81	51.51	-0.70 vol pts	-1.36%
6M	52.05	52.35	-0.30 vol pts	-0.57%
9M	52.78	52.98	-0.20 vol pts	-0.38%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.76 volatility points to -3.12 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-5.01	-7.46	+2.45 vol pts
2W	-4.45	-5.51	+1.06 vol pts
1M	-3.49	-3.90	+0.41 vol pts
3M	-1.80	-1.80	0.00 vol pts
6M	-0.86	-0.73	-0.13 vol pts
9M	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.28 volatility points to 3.12 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	2.95	3.80	-0.85 vol pts
2W	3.11	3.51	-0.40 vol pts
1M	3.15	3.38	-0.23 vol pts
3M	3.26	3.28	-0.02 vol pts
6M	3.12	3.01	+0.11 vol pts
9M	2.80	2.78	+0.02 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

20OCT26, -17.25 vol pts

1.6d

ATM IV change

21OCT26, -12.87 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
20OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	2,397.46	+35.79 USD	40.13%	-17.25 vol pts	+4.43 vol pts	-3.63 vol pts
21OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	2,398.39	+36.10 USD	44.09%	-12.87 vol pts	+5.19 vol pts	-2.35 vol pts
22OCT26	2.6 days	2,398.81	+36.59 USD	46.25%	-9.24 vol pts	+2.74 vol pts	-2.00 vol pts
23OCT26	3.6 days	2,399.06	+36.52 USD	46.57%	-7.96 vol pts	+4.11 vol pts	-1.25 vol pts
30OCT26	10.6 days	2,400.92	+36.77 USD	48.56%	-3.44 vol pts	+1.24 vol pts	-0.50 vol pts
6NOV26	17.6 days	2,402.57	+36.46 USD	50.10%	-2.61 vol pts	+0.45 vol pts	-0.35 vol pts
27NOV26	38.6 days	2,408.54	+36.65 USD	49.42%	-1.42 vol pts	+0.35 vol pts	-0.15 vol pts
25DEC26	66.6 days	2,417.61	+37.02 USD	49.97%	-1.03 vol pts	+0.05 vol pts	-0.15 vol pts
26MAR27	157.6 days	2,444.52	+36.73 USD	51.76%	-0.38 vol pts	-0.14 vol pts	+0.16 vol pts
25JUN27	248.6 days	2,475.7	+37.27 USD	52.55%	-0.18 vol pts	-0.15 vol pts	+0.03 vol pts
24SEP27	339.6 days	2,505.27	+37.63 USD	53.24%	-0.28 vol pts	+0.06 vol pts	+0.04 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

20OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

21OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

22OCT26parallel shift lower · rotation towards calls · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

30OCT26parallel shift lower · rotation towards calls · wing steepening

6NOV26parallel shift lower · rotation towards calls

27NOV26parallel shift lower

25DEC26parallel shift lower

26MAR27parallel shift lower

25JUN27parallel shift lower

24SEP27parallel shift lower

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

20OCT26

21OCT26

22OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

6NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

ETH 30-day implied volatility was 2.4 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.57.

Implied-volatility premium

ETH 30-day ATM IV was 48.54%, against VIX at 19.99: a 28.55-point spread and 2.43× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

ETH reported crypto realised volatility was 32.39%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 10.45%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 9.1% of 254 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.570 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.264 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 20.12, 19.99 and 20.50.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1; Derivasys fixed 30-calendar-day ATM IV versus Yahoo Finance ^VIX; RV compares crypto 20-calendar-day log returns annualised sqrt(365) with ^GSPC 20-US-session log returns annualised sqrt(252). IV/RV and their spreads use volatility_points; ratios are ratios; correlations are correlation_coefficient; percentile ranks use prior valid observations. All metric observation timestamps and benchmark source timestamps: 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z. Crypto snapshot and benchmark timestamp: 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z; ingestion: 2026-10-16T22:30:50.861284Z; alignment tolerance 600 seconds; quality valid. Returned freshness fresh, ageSeconds 246660, evaluatedAt 2026-10-19T16:31:00Z. IV spread percentile null and IV ratio percentile null, each sampleCount 33. Other returned cross-asset metrics: ivSpreadChange1d -3.4500006866455095 volatility_points; ivRatioChange1d -0.5158929547799871 ratio_change; rvSpreadChange1d -0.4787300674072199 volatility_points; rvRatioChange1d -0.23372592754477317 ratio_change; returnCorrelation30Percentile 59.030837004405285 with sampleCount 227; returnCorrelation60Percentile 5.9880239520958085 with sampleCount 167. These session observations are separate from the report's 16:31 UTC options endpoints.

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-18 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-19 16:31:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

ETH 1W BF25 2.95 vol pts · Δ -0.85 vol pts

ETH percentile rank 91.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-18

Original report summary

Ether 1W butterfly BF25 dropped from 3.80 to 2.95 volatility points, a decline of 0.85 points since the previous daily cutoff. The absolute move ranked at the 91.7 percentile among 24 matching prior daily observations from September 18 to October 18, 2026. Falling front-end ATM implied volatility and a callward skew adjustment accompanied the butterfly decline.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: ETH 1W ATM IV 48.03% · Δ -5.10 vol pts

Skew: ETH 1W RR25 -5.01 vol pts · Δ +2.45 vol pts

Relative value: ETH 1W IV 48.03% / 7D RV 53.89% · spread -5.86 vol pts

Vol

ETH 1W ATM IV 48.03% · Δ -5.10 vol ptspercentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-18

Skew

ETH 1W RR25 -5.01 vol pts · Δ +2.45 vol ptspercentile rank 87.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-18

Wings

ETH 1W BF25 2.95 vol pts · Δ -0.85 vol ptspercentile rank 91.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-18

IV versus RV

ETH 1W IV 48.03% / 7D RV 53.89% · spread -5.86 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-18

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 87.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-18

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 91.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-18

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 21e668a72e6c431464fb7cc15d550617fbc0830fb77aad5c8c6e2e2df4be40ad.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
ETH 1W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:56a5d77c27a32e4e266ac053b6309f89d588693a015e4c4372cdcef4f9e41823`
ETH 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0c84693de05bc8616e3be55d9d8634a795cb4785e7e1c236c11b6354e1a5186d`
ETH 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2fcbbb6090f6abc8953ea5071b5785ffc83b7b231061e45c8a7a23f3530e5f91`
ETH 1W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:dc9ae4eb004a9fdcefcd6c3809e24c570f362422b43f6a156c0d41bfe682c9d2`
ETH 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fac14c696422cf32fc2662eb6f672d460e053bb66e4d8b4c155209c00f583d72`
ETH 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0a9c220fa99dfa2ea313fefefa7058ac3e7a9b759b09d9473f71721c064b5982`
ETH 1W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:890f29f99220a143e8f4703cb3fdd7271941373d0bc982ff65f4bd1f3c1c6f56`
ETH 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a62cdda8ff1d0d9b53c30c1d65f647e12c0906c446481ae2f39213fd8b93f168`
ETH 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:caf685c43636ae1ccd562404314bb2de16cf791c81d0dbf36ffeb97a08083388`
ETH 2W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f8814a314fc19c47a660d667d11619529e4b2a688f4297da7c3db5e1eb09a11`
ETH 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:70bdf52cae3586ff241d3b0f06373eca6dd1a819307fe7698442c7d956865307`
ETH 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cb4e1a9dfcf790438b653cc0fe7a769c13073d698c5a83f2112ac6eb01ce00d7`
ETH 2W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d81c5ae875de888263cee1360d8be15cff2bafe31603f25a24a93cd198cd6677`
ETH 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b859183320692ee0ce1d42c3279f7c2d04398ec5387b6f85da256ddc95e2f445`
ETH 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f768e6b8f4c87ab62958d7cf14aca4eaffc7f72687bc1ff21c829b05c175a87c`
ETH 2W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6f6847f43d36a0384bd03dad519fc6939fc6676039d161305001386352a26ac8`
ETH 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:887655f914d9568b54c8e48b05637310e7be4f8d2bbfecbd216a854b4b135368`
ETH 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:41f6828f4f6c5ecc7b16adb259dd216b56590cbbf9da5e9a88774313ad39a1e0`
ETH 1M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b65be36f361a0cbc140d3033264daab7833d6787a90edfc89c7fc5ad7f2d6173`
ETH 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:82fc176a60abe2573d10728a38ea70352ef1295133ef9a83508c02e239de0993`
ETH 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:827cd5df16fb080b97f7d0e75cf6e2a5be1e9d4cfd2dae4178c870a5e9bf7f0c`
ETH 1M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4536b07c19c6515b3d72c46e59a3ca8f2a6e00dfb0b49638bbec2601dac5d1a7`
ETH 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e3fc640b41f43c3cbb496d0b79ddcff4ff77abf8f5ddadb1319d9113014b621d`
ETH 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6bd7d2fecd06a7e6b1e0967f14e7103070f4f6c67bfa10b8f14f740405e3a1fa`
ETH 1M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:164f30f582ae9e067cf1088add0bee1cf14b9e4238144e71fe5550d916a5c0a9`
ETH 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:31a1ba981bfef4573f075d48631c9c85add2cb4bc7620b301e9d94731f80a08c`
ETH 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8e1038363fd04ba676d2f3db893c6569d7ccef1e828dedeff65dcf5df8a89861`
ETH 3M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bc5f518fbe1e86d302ec8e4167dbf0d19cd9e248b9bcf5d94f8a128f2a0faf50`
ETH 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:da6c49671831d285862cab4199325244d914b5768481368c8f6ef0f639608b6d`
ETH 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:581c5586da0cedd65d69cd840db554d7b2f69f919a69eb64ec02b857167eb7eb`
ETH 3M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b677a4ccb2abd2c67da43959b91b38ae6d3fdca4891985499009ec9264a953dd`
ETH 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f87fecd68df86822e8303feff7140a14175f5f5abfcfc9cf476abae331336f28`
ETH 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:baf649ec72c39e2244fa9986b09344153a0ab6c15602f132eb8643acf2da7c46`
ETH 3M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:65ab63e09ac6350fe055326144cd31534453f2e78cd393f86191016daa832232`
ETH 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a44fbf8a63cfa29853836cc74995f7474770dd1ff31b200b397942bc8cdaae3e`
ETH 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:10d4be0f3d5cfa4ceca51296a415387e861ee2b53f46e0a866173492e2e94388`
ETH 6M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:66de6abf239d971d54676de469a43afc052a0a94eb187e52dcebec0d9a31d0ff`
ETH 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b4a8dfba1b36eff695ac74f1a1f2cb313ea25ebfd76ed5251855c86701bb98d1`
ETH 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0f313b2bf308204488363162c57412093889145fd43e4d5a187b18631f8414e5`
ETH 6M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:eb914e3570014dc14ae90e5b13b623261315bd60dadf73179f869aa2a882120e`
ETH 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:63825d5bc1d259685c53b31c347b123f3f4137d6d3d295b2445678b7e0ee03d6`
ETH 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4d6e094f74148ddfaadcfaead76ea6090f31e87370ef23a1c81c5a2b18f1e5e7`
ETH 6M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c51c1d988e326c0cbf1b69358f3c0dc27a15e2dc380e0f1492ed84f5a1abb405`
ETH 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e81647c2f85f981c0f178e42fc5994e32187bc4c14a4ddbcc0a7233c27431611`
ETH 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:23cc510d99bd311ee70320f6baba12d501e89359f638a76908d87190da6853bf`
ETH 9M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:47f64b7d0b00e7573940932ac7f1a1e8221c3568aff9191004bffdb6c412c540`
ETH 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ddfb369c7a64c55692831c598153c2b6f36249ed0ef2ba4f0d5829bd8c9a403e`
ETH 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bd4dc67a67d1e4533532d87c3704b6b884e337f67b20930fd145a07a465db27b`
ETH 9M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b89baa99a4bfa40ba086442fd90e7ae4da0fbfaa3c916e69791dfa73fe477c7c`
ETH 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:84436a62e74b61d6ef7511f3a2aec00e7fc594cade5c149c05bca4e4c91f2fa8`
ETH 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cc64286afa8cc9d12affce58f4f7e3bade6333f8362d21fd6d5471898be855c4`
ETH 9M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:14ff47b4818f07fb4008f7fb7d2ca0a5451552153854e5b785957b217fb62229`
ETH 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2fdab42ccc7f14fba51b1a88933b4bee1ec9de18ba639d57c20ca3967adc6d1e`
ETH 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	48 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:da2d16ffc893cfb21f57e72df6d0013cc61f33d1f40eb5259b4e6fe8d41079ec`
ETH 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 6NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 24SEP27.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
20OCT26	-0.03660	-0.02380	+0.02440	-0.08080	+0.41950	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
21OCT26	-0.01150	-0.01540	-0.03830	-0.06360	+0.14100	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
22OCT26	-0.01580	-0.01070	-0.08660	-0.07060	+0.14190	parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls, wing steepening
23OCT26	-0.01340	-0.00100	-0.01280	-0.03440	+0.08230	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26	-0.01420	+0.00280	+0.00940	-0.00390	+0.06530	parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls, wing steepening
6NOV26	+0.00970	-0.01520	+0.09500	+0.06220	-0.01470	parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls
27NOV26	+0.01450	-0.01580	+0.09160	+0.06170	-0.03800	parallel shift lower
25DEC26	+0.00970	-0.01290	+0.07290	+0.05130	-0.02570	parallel shift lower
26MAR27	+0.01570	-0.01130	+0.04290	+0.05920	-0.05190	parallel shift lower
25JUN27	-0.00530	+0.00760	-0.01410	-0.00930	-0.00550	parallel shift lower
24SEP27	+0.09190	-0.03330	-0.01900	+0.06380	-0.18540	parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-ETH ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma20OCT26, 0.009859 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay20OCT26, -12.501809 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001862 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 9.328513 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.011554 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
ETH	53.89%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 19 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

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The move in context.

Previous publication · research context

Prior watch: measured outcome

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market event

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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