Daily ETH options market report · 24-hour comparison

Ether options see one-week implied volatility fall 0.57 points to 47.46%

Name: ETH options surface changes for 2026-10-20
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

ETH 1W ATM IV fell 0.57 vol points to 47.46% over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 20 Oct 2026, 20:12 UTC · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 16:34 UTC · Snapshot 20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Snapshot · 20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-20 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-19 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-20 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

ETHSpot-index 24h +1.71%1W ATM IV 47.46%1W RR25 -3.68 vol pts1W BF25 +2.90 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -6.07 vol pts

ETH1W ATM IV 47.46%1W IV Δ -0.57 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

ETHSpot-index 24h +1.71%1W ATM IV 47.46%1W RR25 -3.68 vol pts1W BF25 +2.90 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -6.07 vol pts

Lead move: ETH 1W ATM IV Δ -0.57 vol pts → 47.46% · percentile rank 12.5% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=24).

Combined market read · daily observation window

The move in context.

ETH spot rose 1.71%; 1W ATM IV fell 0.57 volatility points to 47.46% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward calls (+1.33 points); BF25 wing premium decreased (-0.05 points).

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-19: “Ether options: 1w butterfly BF25 falls 0.85 volatility points”

Previous publication cutoff 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 19 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 21e668a72e6c431464fb7cc15d550617fbc0830fb77aad5c8c6e2e2df4be40ad

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-19 daily edition.

ETH 1W ATM IV: prior change -5.10 → current change -0.57 volatility points; same direction.
ETH spot-index return: prior change +1.53 → current change +1.71 percent; same direction.
ETH 1W RR25: prior change +2.45 → current change +1.33 volatility points; same direction.
ETH 1W BF25: prior change -0.85 → current change -0.05 volatility points; same direction.

ETH 1W BF25 ≤ 2.95 volatility points (hold the observed endpoint) at 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC: met (observed 2.90 volatility points).
ETH 1W BF25 ≥ 3.80 volatility points (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 2.90 volatility points).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: ETH 1W ATM IV ≤ 47.46 percent at 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 47.46; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: ETH 1W ATM IV ≥ 48.03 percent at 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 47.46; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 4222356224bf5184e1e6b313963c6b330ae8c7e1c16c06738a05ec2dac4c0f09

Prior artifact: /v1/eth/daily/2026-10-19/21e668a72e6c431464fb7cc15d550617fbc0830fb77aad5c8c6e2e2df4be40ad.json · SHA-256 21e668a72e6c431464fb7cc15d550617fbc0830fb77aad5c8c6e2e2df4be40ad

Consumed endpoint proof: abe6b02d7a422ad54c05160eedeaae2617b79af17aaefa95e4e1d252bd4fb3e3

ETH:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00.
ETH:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00.

Ether options see one-week implied volatility fall 0.57 points to 47.46%. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Chart reading: ETH -0.57 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: The reading measures ATM implied volatility at the chart’s stated tenor.
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (ETH); RR25 moved toward calls (ETH); BF25 wing premium decreased (ETH); 1W IV was below 7D RV (ETH).

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Tuesday 20 October

Ether options see one-week implied volatility fall 0.57 points to 47.46%

Ether 1W ATM implied volatility fell 0.57 volatility points from 48.03% to 47.46% between the October 19 and October 20 cutoffs at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. Ether 1M ATM IV fell 0.02 volatility points to 49.57%. The smaller decline at 1M left Ether's short ATM IV curve more upward-sloping.

In Ether-specific security news, Cointelegraph reported that the Drift exploiter transferred $61 million in stolen ETH to Tornado Cash. The single-source report concerns movement of previously stolen assets and does not establish a new exploit or a sale. No clear link connects the reported transfer to the measured options changes.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Drift exploiter sends $61M ETH to Tornado Cash, holds $194MCointelegraph · 12:38 UTC

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -0.57 volatility points, to 47.46%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 47.46%, 6.07 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 53.53%; 24-hour realised volatility was 53.83% and 30-day realised volatility was 45.23%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.21 volatility points to 48.83% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 52.11% (+0.06 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.66 volatility points to -2.46 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 3.06 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.57 volatility points at 1W, to 47.46%.

24h spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was +1.71% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -2.93% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 24OCT26; removed 20OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

23OCT26, +2.86 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, +1.33 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -0.57 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI rho move

24SEP27, +0.1405 param

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

24SEP27, -0.0953 param

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, -0.09 vol pts

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	47.46	48.03	-0.57 vol pts	-1.19%
2W	49.46	49.50	-0.04 vol pts	-0.08%
1M	49.57	49.59	-0.02 vol pts	-0.04%
3M	50.92	50.81	+0.11 vol pts	+0.22%
6M	52.11	52.05	+0.06 vol pts	+0.12%
9M	52.82	52.78	+0.04 vol pts	+0.08%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.66 volatility points to -2.46 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-3.68	-5.01	+1.33 vol pts
2W	-3.63	-4.45	+0.82 vol pts
1M	-2.70	-3.49	+0.79 vol pts
3M	-1.56	-1.80	+0.24 vol pts
6M	-0.73	-0.86	+0.13 vol pts
9M	0.03	-0.16	+0.19 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 3.06 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	2.90	2.95	-0.05 vol pts
2W	3.07	3.11	-0.04 vol pts
1M	3.06	3.15	-0.09 vol pts
3M	3.18	3.26	-0.08 vol pts
6M	3.11	3.12	-0.01 vol pts
9M	2.89	2.80	+0.09 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

21OCT26, -7.08 vol pts

1.6d

ATM IV change

22OCT26, -4.69 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
21OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	2,437.56	+39.17 USD	37.01%	-7.08 vol pts	+2.49 vol pts	-0.97 vol pts
22OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	2,437.97	+39.16 USD	41.56%	-4.69 vol pts	+1.25 vol pts	-0.47 vol pts
23OCT26	2.6 days	2,438.45	+39.39 USD	43.80%	-2.77 vol pts	+1.44 vol pts	-0.22 vol pts
30OCT26	9.6 days	2,440.27	+39.35 USD	48.17%	-0.39 vol pts	+1.21 vol pts	-0.09 vol pts
6NOV26	16.6 days	2,441.4	+38.83 USD	49.90%	-0.20 vol pts	+0.49 vol pts	-0.05 vol pts
27NOV26	37.6 days	2,446.95	+38.41 USD	49.49%	+0.07 vol pts	+0.82 vol pts	-0.12 vol pts
25DEC26	65.6 days	2,455.94	+38.33 USD	50.08%	+0.11 vol pts	+0.36 vol pts	-0.10 vol pts
26MAR27	156.6 days	2,482.98	+38.46 USD	51.82%	+0.06 vol pts	+0.08 vol pts	-0.06 vol pts
25JUN27	247.6 days	2,515.39	+39.69 USD	52.58%	+0.03 vol pts	+0.19 vol pts	+0.07 vol pts
24SEP27	338.6 days	2,545.19	+39.92 USD	53.26%	+0.02 vol pts	+0.14 vol pts	+0.16 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

21OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

22OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

6NOV26rotation towards calls

27NOV26rotation towards calls

25DEC26limited movement

26MAR27parallel shift higher

25JUN27limited movement

24SEP27parallel shift higher

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

21OCT26

22OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

6NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

ETH 30-day implied volatility was 2.7 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.55.

Implied-volatility premium

ETH 30-day ATM IV was 49.47%, against VIX at 18.44: a 31.03-point spread and 2.68× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

ETH reported crypto realised volatility was 36.17%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 9.04%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 16.1% of 255 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.553 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.260 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 17.93, 18.44 and 19.60.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1. Persisted Derivasys canonical index and 30-calendar-day fixed-tenor surface; benchmarks supplied by yahoo_finance (^GSPC, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M). All reported metric observation timestamps and cryptoSnapshotTimestamp/benchmarkTimestamp: 2026-10-19T20:00:00Z. IngestedAt: 2026-10-19T22:30:51.494556Z. Quality valid; freshness fresh, ageSeconds 73860 evaluatedAt 2026-10-20T16:31:00Z. Alignment tolerance 600 seconds. IV and RV levels/spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto RV: 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns, sqrt(365); SPX RV: 20 US trading-session log returns, sqrt(252); mixed clocks remain explicit. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Returned IV-spread and IV-ratio percentiles are null, each with sampleCount 34; benchmark VIX-family realised-volatility readings are null. Other returned diagnostics: ivSpreadChange1d 2.4799992370605466; ivRatioChange1d 0.25454066814030707; rvSpreadChange1d 5.193363640333988; rvRatioChange1d 0.9018606383857914; returnCorrelation30Percentile 52.63157894736842 (228 observations); returnCorrelation60Percentile 4.761904761904762 (168 observations).

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-20 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-19 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-20 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

ETH 1W ATM IV 47.46% · Δ -0.57 vol pts

ETH percentile rank 12.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-19

Original report summary

Ether 1W ATM IV fell 0.57 volatility points to 47.46% against the prior daily cutoff. The October 20 snapshot showed a smaller decline in 1M ATM IV, steepening the short curve. One-week skew became less negative, although puts retained higher implied volatility than calls.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: ETH 1W ATM IV 47.46% · Δ -0.57 vol pts

Skew: ETH 1W RR25 -3.68 vol pts · Δ +1.33 vol pts

Relative value: ETH 1W IV 47.46% / 7D RV 53.53% · spread -6.07 vol pts

Vol

ETH 1W ATM IV 47.46% · Δ -0.57 vol ptspercentile rank 12.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-19

Skew

ETH 1W RR25 -3.68 vol pts · Δ +1.33 vol ptspercentile rank 70.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-19

Wings

ETH 1W BF25 2.90 vol pts · Δ -0.05 vol ptspercentile rank 11.1% by absolute move · full history (n=45); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-19

IV versus RV

ETH 1W IV 47.46% / 7D RV 53.53% · spread -6.07 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 12.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-19

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 70.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-19

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 11.1% by absolute move · full history (n=45); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-19

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 4222356224bf5184e1e6b313963c6b330ae8c7e1c16c06738a05ec2dac4c0f09.

Ether options see one-week implied volatility fall 0.57 points to 47.46% Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
ETH 1W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:23e5ad9cc8e9bf8c77e371d13316f3baa2e641ea781278e2af2baf6d6baf9289`
ETH 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a1c85fcd633b33b922a3cad344d9fa644a9c58bbdac5dd2f4125f3723f07f9a1`
ETH 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7dada63963a2e0d7443e8369775ff4c1feeba5cae9e46ce30f42eea9a290add6`
ETH 1W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fb057b7e84a7b5fee3f2aa5e157754cd6996a9770d443a7428c7de466aacee85`
ETH 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a6c970993b3b444f40c9bb663a8e33714d50b5fd472a7495cd9db2228e671458`
ETH 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:043a4310a15193c7579124cef531a3262f47dcbca4d32e297c44b1e723d10f0f`
ETH 1W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8d4729abce27efe90a91cb486e98ba86d9748709cb06297b44e2240de81d7199`
ETH 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6d0832418c82988c2466e49af351d037f75e5539a88a36d179b5a346037a300e`
ETH 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9add02f8ef68f058bd937b7181e8f0d2150b6de065c24e3a41d17f0862651b79`
ETH 2W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:933faa002ee30f2b4291d5994508d3a6eb43bf1d1db3fbe6fa0c849c5eb9f569`
ETH 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ecabd6f4d0e8d67999c325ccd5cfb50c8dfef18d9aeaf34a185dbaea2ee5ed34`
ETH 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b18382231cf05bb174bac1e56c6ce95d4ce72d88e22a0231aec9d729583e8bcb`
ETH 2W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:38185077bb01eff207e3f5baabd3f9ef141e6f85d2e2854cb68eaff384b8365f`
ETH 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e9dbe65a70cab4f3441acd95a1a9e5dcd823582c31a8609b073b4e27646ff7ac`
ETH 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cf09e2470d16b74be7bb555a7b621edb78dfd72993ebb2be1495b425a5213f40`
ETH 2W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:99c81c2b7c8a7653ab549556299c2af81327eb47385e45c4b45ce7cadaf513e7`
ETH 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:64be81cade7a6109c2a00c6b91619f69c8895a10de27840bfab3bd66e1a1efef`
ETH 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4c72c1db98de899f3f2286a512fbcf2940d4c2ed3d5ad4b80118f48317a79145`
ETH 1M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cd0f2cffc3f5e940914e7c63c2e6184abe9603e8902303d501162d0ac1875529`
ETH 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c78fd6ac1dec3109e754ccaaab843abe123766c3003169a5268207d97b7ce7bf`
ETH 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6be9b2e21f79e3d44ddbb218d1d3642dc197dcfb70417119e992962596472009`
ETH 1M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:28a2b6ae6f7486deb479805e5f0d746da325865d5a95050ec7d50c89b2522b93`
ETH 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a9482dbdbfe83d5c5113046181da899a86c7ab3ab8fc62a91b85aabd7f50f99f`
ETH 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:88df1786d63d078464fce2e7757727aeb36f3cd1dd74376415ad2df40a17f54b`
ETH 1M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ab81dbb5f45766d611c623992cb6c6c595a1a51f184d04633decfb8dbdb8ad46`
ETH 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1fcfa0c9b34e14cffa1979e6bede965307c3eb24feeb8739dcd5512eb85173e0`
ETH 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6b064059d015328e4eb32905921a06222382e6cfb16dc3b111df2986b1ffc73d`
ETH 3M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3a3390e272b1ae2c249b1dd0c74e80c49eaca7779363156f492120aa53a12f2e`
ETH 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7825024b5bb3ce782bbf7293e9a803c4259bc6dc55d5412a3f5ef712db215873`
ETH 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e9f6a53e2a6958d70a60e7755166e3424863a9a9f16bdeff0eadced9ebfa3cbb`
ETH 3M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e922e7f30ee67bd3867a8cb9f9024c8fa827d5343a9d31204d6b6e5bcab3b00f`
ETH 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ed35c8549fe09d3786af4108e6a4ed628951e575cfb04a890b03fc8147743a38`
ETH 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9c9b1d7abbf364eaff48f5d1912ec4a7d75771d26551e3cf1100d5f6a22e5b44`
ETH 3M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0fc6c48ba418121e07e48295a9e27a11078e14ae40f94a273dcf31a5db90cb9e`
ETH 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:78559b705d1a4c9d40a3b051b5f5020776415d79c63d61ca2b88f17a282db520`
ETH 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3af7312bfeb8054eeffe4adb2e2ed4a98d17e63cb041aa783a722cca657d7d86`
ETH 6M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:79c2ba0593bfd135fb4702589a26113de23466d8ce8bcdd05313b6886f0a88d1`
ETH 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5f5bba58590974ec40114a8b5f585f779aa79ddee9ebd09cf3573d36fabf21fa`
ETH 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c46a924ca364a5e8f5ee8b0a58ddb025df86965afd950d77efc691c5e4578b6b`
ETH 6M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f4d31ae5f633f22b61a7255215948ab04b9d60521627a74e0077691d23be6d52`
ETH 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f014957607ea0655e3ce55e3cfde4f50b6448d38ca030786dcc79e6d03455443`
ETH 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:dddf99ba177b2cc5a8bf7960045995933b30246eddf8265b5729a3a7133778f0`
ETH 6M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9cf0cb5bd673988ff98b74b476ef9ff402cbea713136609f2b0bc62baf8f94f8`
ETH 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:061287f45370556015713675863c20e5aff1937f66c6949b01ea35ece5b0e7a3`
ETH 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9750be91bc95daa0f0a8909c3ce42108704fe78dac29f7f27aa8cf9b22b4f20b`
ETH 9M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1d4415b92301b21ea03108cb90218a4e9388964175a6412f32cecbae43fe4dd7`
ETH 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:52fe5e597b30d641db31b5fbec9e8aeb64908d1b2288f87999704ee6f1160aae`
ETH 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d541c51e5a44abee3dad1b0d7386a4828df38a320e0da957699d69d6f3b54c62`
ETH 9M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cb694dc98c8c08f8569023b195e14bc0256b5a5e0268d6bddc7ab9c4ccd59de1`
ETH 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:28340dc4b536feb97bea124ad0f6eae55399eca0dd6c578bbb6e1e48be7cc3ce`
ETH 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5da4059f0f800b3cad6b4f7792dfa459edc68feeb1473a0d981cc39f2789fc8b`
ETH 9M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-19 → 2026-10-19 2026-09-19T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b4d28c0b93de71987e265300684652d9e9f5b5f99988e0c8a092ff1802feebe8`
ETH 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7a6c368acf952f8788281a6b76fa8ad1c3c8bf26a0657cf16d1e5374f629e602`
ETH 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-19 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:204094c859566e367a512f6eaf9a14f852865f75a1eab9091406a7166da1d7e9`
ETH 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 24SEP27; the largest sigma change occurred at 24SEP27.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
21OCT26	-0.00650	-0.01770	+0.06010	+0.00340	+0.14450	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
22OCT26	+0.00080	-0.00590	+0.00210	-0.01150	+0.01490	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
23OCT26	+0.00470	-0.00380	-0.03440	-0.02970	-0.01900	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26	-0.00270	+0.00010	-0.01160	-0.02100	+0.01240	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
6NOV26	-0.00180	-0.00010	-0.00890	-0.01330	+0.00700	rotation towards calls
27NOV26	-0.00460	-0.00010	-0.00920	-0.02110	+0.02420	rotation towards calls
25DEC26	-0.00040	-0.00330	+0.00690	-0.00320	+0.01190	limited movement
26MAR27	+0.01330	-0.01560	+0.04310	+0.04060	-0.01780	parallel shift higher
25JUN27	+0.04780	-0.05020	+0.11350	+0.14750	-0.06920	limited movement
24SEP27	+0.07560	-0.08010	+0.14050	+0.23430	-0.09530	parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-ETH ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma21OCT26, 0.010518 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay21OCT26, -11.726324 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001859 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 9.463876 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.011691 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
ETH	53.53%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 20 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

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The move in context.

Previous publication · research context

Prior watch: measured outcome

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market event

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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