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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options: Ether tops Bitcoin in 1w implied-versus-realised spread

The 1W IV − 7D RV spread differs by 3.78 vol points between ETH and BTC.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 6 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.40%1W ATM IV 31.64%1W RR25 +0.22 vol pts1W BF25 +1.76 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -0.27 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.08%1W ATM IV 39.26%1W RR25 -0.50 vol pts1W BF25 +2.46 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +3.51 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h +0.80%1W ATM IV 50.08%1W RR25 +2.18 vol pts1W BF25 +2.06 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +2.65 vol pts

Lead: 1W IV − 7D RV level snapshot. Historical move percentile: Unavailable for a level comparison.

Major-coin options: Ether tops Bitcoin in 1w implied-versus-realised spread. Current 1W implied volatility and 7d realised volatility level snapshot from Derivasys data; no change is claimed.
Source: Derivasys options data. Current 1W IV versus 7d RV level snapshot; no period-over-period change is claimed. Cite this report.
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01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

From 17:08 UTC on October 5 to the October 6 cutoff, Ether's 1W ATM IV fell 2.44 volatility points to 39.26% and Bitcoin's 1W ATM IV fell 0.77 volatility points to 31.64%, while Solana's 1W ATM IV rose 0.11 volatility points to 50.08%. The dispersion between Solana's and Ether's daily 1W ATM IV changes measured 2.55 volatility points, showing that the majors did not share a common repricing direction.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: 18.44 vol points; signed spread change +0.88 vol points. Historical percentile rank 41%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 2.55 vol points. Historical percentile rank 44%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

ETH stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 1.67 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 18.44 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 2.55 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +3.51 vol points; BTC has the lowest at -0.27 vol points. The range between these spreads is 3.78 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (25 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 40.6%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 43.8%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 40.6%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 72.0%.

ETH

1W ATM IV change

-1.67 points from the group median

SOL

1W ATM IV level

+10.82 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+1.96 points from the group median

BTC

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

-2.92 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 50.08ETH · 39.26BTC · 31.64
Daily 1W ATM IV changeSOL · 0.11BTC · -0.77ETH · -2.44
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · 3.51SOL · 2.65BTC · -0.27
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 2.18BTC · 0.22 · up 1ETH · -0.50 · down 1
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -0.50 · up 1BTC · 0.22 · down 1SOL · 2.18
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceSOL · 0.80BTC · 0.40ETH · 0.08

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

6 October 2026

Macro: No additional qualifying evidence was identified.

Crypto: Decrypt reported approval of a Cboe listing rule for Volatility Shares funds targeting triple daily Bitcoin and Ethereum moves, adding joint derivatives-access context for the comparison endpoints. The developing report does not establish trading commencement. Cointelegraph separately reported Ethereum's Glamsterdam activation on the Sepolia testnet, while the Solana Foundation announced open-source delivery-versus-payment infrastructure for financial institutions. Event-specific measured reactions are unavailable, leaving these developments as context for the options divergence.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.2–3.3 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC34.29%+18.77 vol pts2.21×39.07%10.50%percentile rank 53.2%+0.595
ETH46.60%+31.08 vol pts3.00×40.70%10.50%percentile rank 15.9%+0.563
SOL51.63%+36.11 vol pts3.33×67.96%10.50%percentile rank 43.8%+0.542

As of 05 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+0.40%31.64%-0.77 vol pts31.91%-0.27 vol pts+0.22 vol pts+1.76 vol pts
ETH+0.08%39.26%-2.44 vol pts35.75%+3.51 vol pts-0.50 vol pts+2.46 vol pts
SOL+0.80%50.08%+0.11 vol pts47.43%+2.65 vol pts+2.18 vol pts+2.06 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC31.64% / -0.7734.61% / +0.2236.76% / +0.2037.54% / +0.10
ETH39.26% / -2.4445.69% / -1.1749.94% / -0.7952.29% / -0.67
SOL50.08% / +0.1152.82% / +0.82UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 6 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W IV 31.64% / 7D RV 31.91% · spread -0.27 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 39.26% / 7D RV 35.75% · spread +3.51 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 50.08% / 7D RV 47.43% · spread +2.65 vol pts

Original report summary

Ether and Bitcoin bracket the majors' 1W ATM implied-volatility-minus-seven-day realised-volatility spreads: Ether's one-week ATM implied volatility is 3.51 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while Bitcoin's one-week ATM implied volatility is 0.27 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility. The resulting cross-asset dispersion is 3.78 volatility points at the October 6 cutoff, with Solana between them. Daily options repricing diverged across the constituents, alongside derivatives-access and infrastructure news.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.64% · Δ -0.77 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 39.26% · Δ -2.44 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 50.08% · Δ +0.11 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 0.22 vol pts · Δ +0.61 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -0.50 vol pts · Δ -0.35 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 2.18 vol pts · Δ +1.27 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.64% / 7D RV 31.91% · spread -0.27 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 39.26% / 7D RV 35.75% · spread +3.51 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 50.08% / 7D RV 47.43% · spread +2.65 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 31.64% · Δ -0.77 vol ptspercentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV 39.26% · Δ -2.44 vol ptspercentile rank 42.9% by absolute move · full history (n=49)

SOL 1W ATM IV 50.08% · Δ +0.11 vol ptspercentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 0.22 vol pts · Δ +0.61 vol ptspercentile rank 41.8% by absolute move · full history (n=165)

ETH 1W RR25 -0.50 vol pts · Δ -0.35 vol ptspercentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 2.18 vol pts · Δ +1.27 vol ptspercentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.76 vol pts · Δ +0.01 vol ptspercentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25 2.46 vol pts · Δ -0.11 vol ptspercentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 2.06 vol pts · Δ -0.63 vol ptspercentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 31.64% / 7D RV 31.91% · spread -0.27 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 39.26% / 7D RV 35.75% · spread +3.51 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 50.08% / 7D RV 47.43% · spread +2.65 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 6 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC; ETH 6 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC; SOL 6 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 41.8% by absolute move · full history (n=165)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 42.9% by absolute move · full history (n=49)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC31.91%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH35.75%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL47.43%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 06 Oct 2026, 17:08:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 57,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-06T17:08:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-05T17:08:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.4,
  "rv24hPercent": 27.23,
  "rv7dPercent": 31.91,
  "rv30dPercent": 34.29,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 31.64,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -0.27,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 4.41,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -2.65
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 06 Oct 2026, 17:08:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 55,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-06T17:08:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-05T17:08:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.08,
  "rv24hPercent": 27.01,
  "rv7dPercent": 35.75,
  "rv30dPercent": 45.6,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 39.26,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 3.51,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 12.25,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -6.34
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 06 Oct 2026, 17:08:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-06T17:08:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-05T17:08:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.8,
  "rv24hPercent": 38.22,
  "rv7dPercent": 47.43,
  "rv30dPercent": 56,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 50.08,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 2.65,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 11.86,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.92
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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