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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options: Ether and Solana bracket 1w implied-versus-realised dispersion

The 1W IV − 7D RV spread differs by 4.17 vol points between ETH and SOL.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 5 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h -0.14%1W ATM IV 32.25%1W RR25 -0.10 vol pts1W BF25 +1.80 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -0.73 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h -0.41%1W ATM IV 41.83%1W RR25 -1.01 vol pts1W BF25 +2.55 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +3.00 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h -1.99%1W ATM IV 50.04%1W RR25 +1.05 vol pts1W BF25 +2.75 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -1.17 vol pts

Lead: 1W IV − 7D RV level snapshot. Historical move percentile: Unavailable for a level comparison.

Major-coin options: Ether and Solana bracket 1w implied-versus-realised dispersion. Current 1W implied volatility and 7d realised volatility level snapshot from Derivasys data; no change is claimed.
Source: Derivasys options data. Current 1W IV versus 7d RV level snapshot; no period-over-period change is claimed. Cite this report.
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Compared with October 4 at 16:29 UTC, Bitcoin's 1W ATM IV rose 0.35 volatility points, whereas Ether's 1W ATM IV fell 1.02 volatility points and Solana's 1W ATM IV fell 1.53 volatility points. These divergent changes narrowed the Solana-versus-Bitcoin 1W ATM IV level dispersion by 1.88 volatility points to 17.79 volatility points, from 19.67 volatility points.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 17.79 vol points; signed spread change -1.88 vol points. Historical percentile rank 34%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 1.88 vol points. Historical percentile rank 25%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

BTC stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 1.37 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 17.79 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 1.88 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +3.00 vol points; SOL has the lowest at -1.17 vol points. The range between these spreads is 4.17 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (25 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 34.4%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 25.0%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 37.5%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 72.0%.

BTC

1W ATM IV change

+1.37 points from the group median

BTC

1W ATM IV level

-9.58 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+1.15 points from the group median

ETH

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

+3.73 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 50.04ETH · 41.83BTC · 32.25
Daily 1W ATM IV changeBTC · 0.35ETH · -1.02SOL · -1.53
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · 3.00BTC · -0.73SOL · -1.17
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 1.05BTC · -0.10ETH · -1.01
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -1.01BTC · -0.10SOL · 1.05
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceBTC · -0.14ETH · -0.41SOL · -1.99

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

5 October 2026

Crypto: The Block reported that Strive added 2,000 bitcoin, with holdings nearing 30,000 BTC. CoinDesk separately reported that Ethereum investors faced a two-week staking exit line. These provisional single-source reports add treasury and staking context, but neither establishes a cause for the Ether-versus-Solana volatility comparison or the divergent daily 1W ATM IV changes.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.2–3.5 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.36%+18.05 vol pts2.18×43.69%10.32%percentile rank 71.7%+0.587
ETH46.18%+30.87 vol pts3.02×47.50%10.32%percentile rank 33.6%+0.568
SOL53.64%+38.33 vol pts3.50×73.09%10.32%percentile rank 51.5%+0.552

As of 02 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC-0.14%32.25%+0.35 vol pts32.98%-0.73 vol pts-0.10 vol pts+1.80 vol pts
ETH-0.41%41.83%-1.02 vol pts38.83%+3.00 vol pts-1.01 vol pts+2.55 vol pts
SOL-1.99%50.04%-1.53 vol pts51.21%-1.17 vol pts+1.05 vol pts+2.75 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC32.25% / +0.3534.41% / +0.4236.60% / -0.0237.47% / -0.03
ETH41.83% / -1.0246.84% / -0.6550.77% / -0.6752.95% / -0.41
SOL50.04% / -1.5352.10% / -1.89UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 5 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W IV 32.25% / 7D RV 32.98% · spread -0.73 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 41.83% / 7D RV 38.83% · spread +3.00 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 50.04% / 7D RV 51.21% · spread -1.17 vol pts

Original report summary

Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) defined the 1W IV minus 7D realised volatility dispersion of 4.17 volatility points at the October 5, 16:29 UTC cutoff. Ether had the highest spread and Solana the lowest when comparing one-week ATM implied volatility with seven-day realised volatility. Bitcoin stood between them, while daily changes compressed the outright 1W ATM IV range.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 32.25% · Δ +0.35 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 41.83% · Δ -1.02 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 50.04% · Δ -1.53 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.10 vol pts · Δ -0.89 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -1.01 vol pts · Δ -1.05 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 1.05 vol pts · Δ -0.46 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 32.25% / 7D RV 32.98% · spread -0.73 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 41.83% / 7D RV 38.83% · spread +3.00 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 50.04% / 7D RV 51.21% · spread -1.17 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 32.25% · Δ +0.35 vol ptspercentile rank 11.6% by absolute move · full history (n=164)

ETH 1W ATM IV 41.83% · Δ -1.02 vol ptspercentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV 50.04% · Δ -1.53 vol ptspercentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -0.10 vol pts · Δ -0.89 vol ptspercentile rank 55.5% by absolute move · full history (n=164)

ETH 1W RR25 -1.01 vol pts · Δ -1.05 vol ptspercentile rank 56.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 1.05 vol pts · Δ -0.46 vol ptspercentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.80 vol pts · Δ +0.05 vol ptspercentile rank 18.3% by absolute move · full history (n=164)

ETH 1W BF25 2.55 vol pts · Δ -0.45 vol ptspercentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 2.75 vol pts · Δ +0.32 vol ptspercentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 32.25% / 7D RV 32.98% · spread -0.73 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 41.83% / 7D RV 38.83% · spread +3.00 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 50.04% / 7D RV 51.21% · spread -1.17 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 5 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC; ETH 5 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC; SOL 5 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 11.6% by absolute move · full history (n=164)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 55.5% by absolute move · full history (n=164)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 18.3% by absolute move · full history (n=164)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 56.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC32.98%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH38.83%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL51.21%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 05 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 57,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-05T16:29:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-04T16:29:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.14,
  "rv24hPercent": 36.49,
  "rv7dPercent": 32.98,
  "rv30dPercent": 34.11,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 32.25,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -0.73,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -4.24,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -1.86
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 05 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 55,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-05T16:29:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-04T16:29:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.41,
  "rv24hPercent": 37.05,
  "rv7dPercent": 38.83,
  "rv30dPercent": 45.71,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 41.83,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 3,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 4.78,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -3.88
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 05 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-05T16:29:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-04T16:29:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -1.99,
  "rv24hPercent": 42.92,
  "rv7dPercent": 51.21,
  "rv30dPercent": 56.47,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 50.04,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -1.17,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 7.12,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -6.43
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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