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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options: Ether and Solana split on 1w implied versus realised volatility

The 1W IV − 7D RV spread differs by 5.79 vol points between ETH and SOL.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.50%1W ATM IV 31.90%1W RR25 +0.79 vol pts1W BF25 +1.75 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -1.15 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.69%1W ATM IV 42.84%1W RR25 +0.03 vol pts1W BF25 +3.03 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +2.58 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h +1.58%1W ATM IV 51.58%1W RR25 +1.51 vol pts1W BF25 +2.43 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -3.21 vol pts

Lead: 1W IV − 7D RV level snapshot. Historical move percentile: Unavailable for a level comparison.

Major-coin options: Ether and Solana split on 1w implied versus realised volatility. Current 1W implied volatility and 7d realised volatility level snapshot from Derivasys data; no change is claimed.
Source: Derivasys options data. Current 1W IV versus 7d RV level snapshot; no period-over-period change is claimed. Cite this report.
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Daily changes in 1W ATM IV also diverged over the 24 hours ending 4 October at 16:30 UTC: Ether one-week ATM IV rose 3.57 volatility points, Bitcoin one-week ATM IV rose 2.87 points and Solana one-week ATM IV fell 1.36 points, producing a 4.93-point range in signed changes. Yet outright 1W ATM IV dispersion between Solana and Bitcoin narrowed 4.23 points to 19.68 points, with their levels at 51.58% and 31.90%, respectively. Compression in outright volatility therefore coexisted with opposing daily moves.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 19.68 vol points; signed spread change -4.23 vol points. Historical percentile rank 47%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.93 vol points. Historical percentile rank 84%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

SOL stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 4.23 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 19.68 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 4.93 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +2.58 vol points; SOL has the lowest at -3.21 vol points. The range between these spreads is 5.79 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (25 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 46.9%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 84.4%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 28.1%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 84.0%.

SOL

1W ATM IV change

-4.23 points from the group median

BTC

1W ATM IV level

-10.94 points from the group median

ETH

1W RR25 level

-0.76 points from the group median

ETH

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

+3.73 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 51.58ETH · 42.84BTC · 31.90
Daily 1W ATM IV changeETH · 3.57BTC · 2.87SOL · -1.36
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · 2.58BTC · -1.15SOL · -3.21
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 1.51 · up 1BTC · 0.79 · down 1ETH · 0.03
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · 0.03BTC · 0.79 · up 1SOL · 1.51 · down 1
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceSOL · 1.58ETH · 0.69BTC · 0.50

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

4 October 2026

Macro: No additional qualifying evidence was identified.

Crypto: Decrypt reported $134.4 million of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over October's first two trading days, following a September 30 outflow. Those flows preceded this daily comparison and provide Bitcoin-specific institutional context. Separately, Al Jazeera reported that Tehran viewed reopening the Strait of Hormuz as its main goal while the US remained focused on nuclear talks, supplying a shared economic backdrop. Both accounts are provisional single-source reporting; neither establishes a measured cause for the Ether–Solana options divergence.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.2–3.5 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.36%+18.05 vol pts2.18×43.69%10.32%percentile rank 71.7%+0.587
ETH46.18%+30.87 vol pts3.02×47.50%10.32%percentile rank 33.6%+0.568
SOL53.64%+38.33 vol pts3.50×73.09%10.32%percentile rank 51.5%+0.552

As of 02 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+0.50%31.90%+2.87 vol pts33.05%-1.15 vol pts+0.79 vol pts+1.75 vol pts
ETH+0.69%42.84%+3.57 vol pts40.26%+2.58 vol pts+0.03 vol pts+3.03 vol pts
SOL+1.58%51.58%-1.36 vol pts54.79%-3.21 vol pts+1.51 vol pts+2.43 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC31.90% / +2.8733.99% / +0.5836.62% / +0.1237.50% / +0.10
ETH42.84% / +3.5747.49% / +1.0851.44% / +0.7453.36% / +0.31
SOL51.58% / -1.3653.99% / +0.67UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W IV 31.90% / 7D RV 33.05% · spread -1.15 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 42.84% / 7D RV 40.26% · spread +2.58 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 51.58% / 7D RV 54.79% · spread -3.21 vol pts

Original report summary

Ether and Solana show dispersion of 5.79 volatility points in 1W ATM implied volatility minus seven-day realised volatility, according to Derivasys data at the 4 October cutoff. Ether stands 2.58 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while Solana stands 3.21 volatility points below it. Bitcoin falls between these endpoints. The comparison measures implied volatility against recent realised volatility without establishing whether options are cheap or expensive.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.90% · Δ +2.87 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 42.84% · Δ +3.57 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 51.58% · Δ -1.36 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 0.79 vol pts · Δ +1.21 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 0.03 vol pts · Δ +0.94 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 1.51 vol pts · Δ +2.34 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.90% / 7D RV 33.05% · spread -1.15 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 42.84% / 7D RV 40.26% · spread +2.58 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 51.58% / 7D RV 54.79% · spread -3.21 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 31.90% · Δ +2.87 vol ptspercentile rank 76.1% by absolute move · full history (n=163)

ETH 1W ATM IV 42.84% · Δ +3.57 vol ptspercentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV 51.58% · Δ -1.36 vol ptspercentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 0.79 vol pts · Δ +1.21 vol ptspercentile rank 70.6% by absolute move · full history (n=163)

ETH 1W RR25 0.03 vol pts · Δ +0.94 vol ptspercentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 1.51 vol pts · Δ +2.34 vol ptspercentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.75 vol pts · Δ +0.17 vol ptspercentile rank 56.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25 3.03 vol pts · Δ +0.42 vol ptspercentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 2.43 vol pts · Δ +0.18 vol ptspercentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 31.90% / 7D RV 33.05% · spread -1.15 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 42.84% / 7D RV 40.26% · spread +2.58 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 51.58% / 7D RV 54.79% · spread -3.21 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; ETH 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; SOL 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 76.1% by absolute move · full history (n=163)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 70.6% by absolute move · full history (n=163)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 56.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC33.05%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH40.26%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL54.79%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 04 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 90,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-04T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-03T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.5,
  "rv24hPercent": 12.81,
  "rv7dPercent": 33.05,
  "rv30dPercent": 33.61,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 31.9,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -1.15,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 19.09,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -1.71
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 04 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-04T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-03T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.69,
  "rv24hPercent": 16.07,
  "rv7dPercent": 40.26,
  "rv30dPercent": 45.36,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 42.84,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 2.58,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 26.77,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -2.52
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 04 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-04T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-03T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1.58,
  "rv24hPercent": 25.52,
  "rv7dPercent": 54.79,
  "rv30dPercent": 56.2,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 51.58,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -3.21,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 26.06,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -4.62
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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