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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

SOL–BTC 1W ATM implied-volatility gap widens to 24.4 points as SOL IV rises

SOL minus BTC 1W ATM IV: +24.37 vol points; daily spread change +0.83.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.28%1W ATM IV 29.34%1W RR25 -0.18 vol pts1W BF25 +1.52 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -4.05 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.22%1W ATM IV 39.66%1W RR25 -1.02 vol pts1W BF25 +2.42 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -1.22 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h +0.29%1W ATM IV 53.71%1W RR25 -0.01 vol pts1W BF25 +1.95 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.96 vol pts

Notable move: SOL 1W ATM IV Δ +1.64 vol pts → 53.71% · percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); BTC 1W ATM IV Δ +0.81 vol pts → 29.34% · percentile rank 26.5% by absolute move · full history (n=162).

SOL–BTC 1W ATM implied-volatility gap widens to 24.4 points as SOL IV rises. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Ether one-week ATM IV gained 1.92 volatility points to 39.66%, the largest daily increase among the three assets. Ether remained between Solana and Bitcoin in one-week ATM IV levels. The Solana–Ether one-week call-minus-put RR25 gap narrowed 1.44 volatility points to 1.01 points. Solana one-week RR25 ended near neutral, while Ether retained the most negative one-week RR25 among the three assets. Comparable one-year-minus-one-week ATM IV slopes were unavailable because listed expiries did not support the required fixed tenors.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: 24.37 vol points; signed spread change +0.83 vol points. Historical percentile rank 75%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 1.11 vol points. Historical percentile rank 19%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

BTC stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 0.83 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 24.37 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 1.11 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at -1.22 vol points; BTC has the lowest at -4.05 vol points. The range between these spreads is 2.83 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (25 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 75.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 18.8%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 15.6%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 68.0%.

BTC

1W ATM IV change

-0.83 points from the group median

SOL

1W ATM IV level

+14.05 points from the group median

ETH

1W RR25 level

-0.84 points from the group median

ETH

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

+1.74 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 53.71ETH · 39.66BTC · 29.34
Daily 1W ATM IV changeETH · 1.92SOL · 1.64BTC · 0.81
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · -1.22SOL · -2.96BTC · -4.05
Highest 1W RR25SOL · -0.01BTC · -0.18ETH · -1.02
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -1.02BTC · -0.18SOL · -0.01
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceSOL · 0.29BTC · 0.28ETH · 0.22

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.2–3.5 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.36%+18.05 vol pts2.18×43.69%10.32%percentile rank 71.7%+0.587
ETH46.18%+30.87 vol pts3.02×47.50%10.32%percentile rank 33.6%+0.568
SOL53.64%+38.33 vol pts3.50×73.09%10.32%percentile rank 51.5%+0.552

As of 02 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+0.28%29.34%+0.81 vol pts33.39%-4.05 vol pts-0.18 vol pts+1.52 vol pts
ETH+0.22%39.66%+1.92 vol pts40.88%-1.22 vol pts-1.02 vol pts+2.42 vol pts
SOL+0.29%53.71%+1.64 vol pts56.67%-2.96 vol pts-0.01 vol pts+1.95 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC29.34% / +0.8133.36% / -0.3036.52% / -0.2637.49% / -0.21
ETH39.66% / +1.9246.43% / +0.3750.97% / -0.0253.05% / +0.02
SOL53.71% / +1.6453.23% / -0.46UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

SOL 1W ATM IV 53.71% · Δ +1.64 vol pts

BTC 1W ATM IV 29.34% · Δ +0.81 vol pts

SOL minus BTC: signed spread +24.37 vol pts · spread Δ +0.83 vol pts

SOL percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC percentile rank 26.5% by absolute move · full history (n=162)

Original report summary

Solana’s one-week ATM implied volatility exceeded Bitcoin’s by 24.37 volatility points, up from 23.54 points over October 2–3. Solana stood at 53.71%, versus Bitcoin at 29.34%. The comparison describes the options surface at the report cutoff; it does not establish a news catalyst or a forecast for the underlying price.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 29.34% · Δ +0.81 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 39.66% · Δ +1.92 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 53.71% · Δ +1.64 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.18 vol pts · Δ +0.39 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -1.02 vol pts · Δ +0.16 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 -0.01 vol pts · Δ -1.28 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 29.34% / 7D RV 33.39% · spread -4.05 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 39.66% / 7D RV 40.88% · spread -1.22 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 53.71% / 7D RV 56.67% · spread -2.96 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 29.34% · Δ +0.81 vol ptspercentile rank 26.5% by absolute move · full history (n=162)

ETH 1W ATM IV 39.66% · Δ +1.92 vol ptspercentile rank 28.3% by absolute move · full history (n=46)

SOL 1W ATM IV 53.71% · Δ +1.64 vol ptspercentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -0.18 vol pts · Δ +0.39 vol ptspercentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W RR25 -1.02 vol pts · Δ +0.16 vol ptspercentile rank 10.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 -0.01 vol pts · Δ -1.28 vol ptspercentile rank 50.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.52 vol pts · Δ -0.11 vol ptspercentile rank 39.5% by absolute move · full history (n=162)

ETH 1W BF25 2.42 vol pts · Δ -0.16 vol ptspercentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 1.95 vol pts · Δ +0.34 vol ptspercentile rank 43.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 29.34% / 7D RV 33.39% · spread -4.05 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 39.66% / 7D RV 40.88% · spread -1.22 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 53.71% / 7D RV 56.67% · spread -2.96 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC; ETH 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC; SOL 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 26.5% by absolute move · full history (n=162)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 39.5% by absolute move · full history (n=162)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 28.3% by absolute move · full history (n=46)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 10.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 50.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 43.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC33.39%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH40.88%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL56.67%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 03 Oct 2026, 17:58:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 90,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-03T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-02T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.28,
  "rv24hPercent": 18.56,
  "rv7dPercent": 33.39,
  "rv30dPercent": 34.83,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 29.34,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -4.05,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 10.78,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.49
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 03 Oct 2026, 17:58:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-03T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-02T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.22,
  "rv24hPercent": 26.77,
  "rv7dPercent": 40.88,
  "rv30dPercent": 46.93,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 39.66,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -1.22,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 12.89,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -7.27
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 03 Oct 2026, 17:58:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-03T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-02T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.29,
  "rv24hPercent": 36.09,
  "rv7dPercent": 56.67,
  "rv30dPercent": 57.58,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 53.71,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -2.96,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 17.62,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -3.87
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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BTC, ETH & SOL Options Volatility Report — 3 October 2026 | Derivasys