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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

SOL–BTC 1W ATM implied-volatility gap widens to 24.4 points as BTC IV falls

SOL minus BTC 1W ATM IV: +24.36 vol points; daily spread change +1.26.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +1.09%1W ATM IV 28.62%1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts1W BF25 +1.73 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.31%1W ATM IV 37.63%1W RR25 -1.42 vol pts1W BF25 +2.52 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
  • SOLSpot-index 24h +2.12%1W ATM IV 52.98%1W RR25 +1.69 vol pts1W BF25 +1.61 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable

Notable move: SOL 1W ATM IV Δ -0.11 vol pts → 52.98% · percentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); BTC 1W ATM IV Δ -1.37 vol pts → 28.62% · percentile rank 39.1% by absolute move · full history (n=161).

SOL–BTC 1W ATM implied-volatility gap widens to 24.4 points as BTC IV falls. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.
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01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Skew moved closer together: Solana–Ether one-week call-minus-put RR25 dispersion narrowed 2.06 volatility points to 3.11 points. Solana one-week RR25 stood at 1.69 volatility points, while Ether one-week RR25 was -1.42%, leaving Solana call-rich and Ether put-rich.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: 24.36 vol points; signed spread change +1.26 vol points. Historical percentile rank 75%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.17 vol points. Historical percentile rank 63%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

ETH stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.91 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 24.36 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 4.17 vol pts across the complex.

Comparable implied-versus-realised values are not available for every constituent.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (25 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 75.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 62.5%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 46.9%.

ETH

1W ATM IV change

-2.91 points from the group median

SOL

1W ATM IV level

+15.35 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+2.30 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 52.98ETH · 37.63BTC · 28.62
Daily 1W ATM IV changeSOL · -0.11BTC · -1.37ETH · -4.28
1W IV minus 7d realisedBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 1.69BTC · -0.61ETH · -1.42
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -1.42BTC · -0.61SOL · 1.69
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceSOL · 2.12BTC · 1.09ETH · 0.31

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

2 October 2026

Crypto: CoinDesk’s October 2 headline described crypto traders as being in risk-on mode. That provides market context without establishing a cause of the Solana–Bitcoin options gap. Seven-day minute-return realised volatility remained unavailable across all three assets, preventing a matching implied-versus-realised comparison.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.1–3.3 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC34.34%+17.95 vol pts2.10×43.61%10.69%percentile rank 67.9%+0.460
ETH47.62%+31.23 vol pts2.91×47.25%10.69%percentile rank 32.9%+0.342
SOL53.31%+36.92 vol pts3.25×73.23%10.69%percentile rank 50.4%+0.494

As of 01 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+1.09%28.62%-1.37 vol ptsUnavailableUnavailable-0.61 vol pts+1.73 vol pts
ETH+0.31%37.63%-4.28 vol ptsUnavailableUnavailable-1.42 vol pts+2.52 vol pts
SOL+2.12%52.98%-0.11 vol ptsUnavailableUnavailable+1.69 vol pts+1.61 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC28.62% / -1.3733.86% / -0.0836.69% / +0.0537.52% / -0.09
ETH37.63% / -4.2846.01% / -1.6651.03% / -0.4853.02% / -0.33
SOL52.98% / -0.1154.36% / +0.08UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

SOL 1W ATM IV 52.98% · Δ -0.11 vol pts

BTC 1W ATM IV 28.62% · Δ -1.37 vol pts

SOL minus BTC: signed spread +24.36 vol pts · spread Δ +1.26 vol pts

SOL percentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC percentile rank 39.1% by absolute move · full history (n=161)

Original report summary

The Solana–Bitcoin one-week ATM implied-volatility gap widened 1.26 volatility points to 24.36 points over the day ending October 2 at 16:30 UTC. Bitcoin’s implied volatility declined faster than Solana’s.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 28.62% · Δ -1.37 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 37.63% · Δ -4.28 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 52.98% · Δ -0.11 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts · Δ +0.71 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -1.42 vol pts · Δ +1.53 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 1.69 vol pts · Δ -0.53 vol pts

IV level gap: 1W ATM IV level gap 24.36 vol pts (SOL 52.98% versus BTC 28.62%) · SOL minus BTC spread Δ +1.26 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 28.62% · Δ -1.37 vol ptspercentile rank 39.1% by absolute move · full history (n=161)

ETH 1W ATM IV 37.63% · Δ -4.28 vol ptspercentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · full history (n=45)

SOL 1W ATM IV 52.98% · Δ -0.11 vol ptspercentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts · Δ +0.71 vol ptspercentile rank 46.6% by absolute move · full history (n=161)

ETH 1W RR25 -1.42 vol pts · Δ +1.53 vol ptspercentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 1.69 vol pts · Δ -0.53 vol ptspercentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · full history (n=35)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.73 vol pts · Δ -0.23 vol ptspercentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25 2.52 vol pts · Δ -0.53 vol ptspercentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 1.61 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol ptspercentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC Unavailable

ETH Unavailable

SOL Unavailable

Unavailable readings: BTC IV versus RV; ETH IV versus RV; SOL IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; ETH 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; SOL 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 39.1% by absolute move · full history (n=161)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 46.6% by absolute move · full history (n=161)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · full history (n=45)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · full history (n=35)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTCUnavailableUnavailable97.4504% / 97% required247 min / 60 min maximum
ETHUnavailableUnavailable97.4504% / 99.5% required247 min / 60 min maximum
SOLUnavailableUnavailable97.2817% / 99.5% required247 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 97% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4504% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 90,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1.09,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1183,
    "7d": 9823,
    "30d": 42943
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1183,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 82.1528,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 98% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 82.1528% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 9823,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 97.4504,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 97% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4504% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 42943,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.4051,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.4051% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 28.62,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4504% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.31,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1183,
    "7d": 9823,
    "30d": 42943
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1183,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 82.1528,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 82.1528% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 9823,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 97.4504,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4504% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 42943,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.4051,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.4051% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 37.63,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 2.12,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1183,
    "7d": 9806,
    "30d": 42852
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1183,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 82.1528,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 82.1528% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 9806,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 97.2817,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 271,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 42852,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.1944,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 343,
      "missingIntervals": 5,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.1944% with 343 missing price minutes across 5 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 52.98,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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