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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options: Ether ranks above Solana on implied-versus-realised volatility

The 1W IV − 7D RV spread differs by 8.10 vol points between ETH and SOL.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 1 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.09%1W ATM IV 29.99%1W RR25 -1.32 vol pts1W BF25 +1.96 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.60 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.03%1W ATM IV 41.91%1W RR25 -2.95 vol pts1W BF25 +3.05 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +1.45 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h -1.77%1W ATM IV 53.09%1W RR25 +2.22 vol pts1W BF25 +2.58 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -6.65 vol ptsPartial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Lead: 1W IV − 7D RV level snapshot. Historical move percentile: Unavailable for a level comparison.

Major-coin options: Ether ranks above Solana on implied-versus-realised volatility. Current 1W implied volatility and 7d realised volatility level snapshot from Derivasys data; no change is claimed.
Source: Derivasys options data. Current 1W IV versus 7d RV level snapshot; no period-over-period change is claimed. Cite this report.
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01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Skew separated even as volatility levels converged. Solana one-week call-minus-put RR25 rose 0.22 volatility points to +2.22 volatility points. Ether one-week call-minus-put RR25 fell 0.65 volatility points to -2.95 volatility points. The Solana–Ether one-week call-minus-put RR25 gap widened by 0.87 volatility points to 5.17 volatility points. Calls remained richer than puts in Solana and puts richer than calls in Ether. Alongside that divergence, [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/01/metamask-security-incident-forces-ethereum-staking-exits-with-lido-warning-of-lost-rewards) reported that a MetaMask security incident forced Ethereum staking exits, with no funds at risk according to its developing account.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 23.10 vol points; signed spread change -2.41 vol points. Historical percentile rank 69%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 2.41 vol points. Historical percentile rank 41%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

SOL stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.29 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 23.10 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 2.41 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +1.45 vol points; SOL has the lowest at -6.65 vol points. The range between these spreads is 8.10 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (25 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 68.8%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 40.6%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 84.4%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 84.0%.

SOL

1W ATM IV change

-2.29 points from the group median

BTC

1W ATM IV level

-11.92 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+3.54 points from the group median

SOL

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

-4.05 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 53.09ETH · 41.91BTC · 29.99
Daily 1W ATM IV changeBTC · -0.87ETH · -0.99SOL · -3.28
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · 1.45BTC · -2.60SOL · -6.65
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 2.22BTC · -1.32ETH · -2.95
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -2.95BTC · -1.32SOL · 2.22
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceBTC · 0.09ETH · 0.03SOL · -1.77

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

1 October 2026

Crypto: The [Solana Foundation](https://solana.com/news/open-usd-is-live-on-solana) announced Open USD's launch, offering businesses free minting and burning 1:1 against dollars, with over $1 billion committed to liquidity. [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-fights-local-uptrend-us-bond-yields-drop-from-new-24-year-highs) separately reported sharply falling US bond yields around Thursday's Wall Street open as Bitcoin sought to preserve higher lows. These developments provide context, but no measured reaction establishes them as causes of the options repricing; the Open USD event reaction is unavailable.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.1–3.3 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.64%+17.30 vol pts2.06×43.44%10.79%percentile rank 67.3%+0.456
ETH47.59%+31.25 vol pts2.91×48.56%10.79%percentile rank 36.4%+0.335
SOL54.41%+38.07 vol pts3.33×73.50%10.79%percentile rank 50.6%+0.498

As of 30 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+0.09%29.99%-0.87 vol pts32.59%-2.60 vol pts-1.32 vol pts+1.96 vol pts
ETH+0.03%41.91%-0.99 vol pts40.46%+1.45 vol pts-2.95 vol pts+3.05 vol pts
SOL-1.77%53.09%-3.28 vol pts59.74%-6.65 vol pts+2.22 vol pts+2.58 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC29.99% / -0.8733.94% / +0.5036.64% / -0.1237.61% / -0.11
ETH41.91% / -0.9947.67% / -0.6151.51% / -0.2053.35% / -0.12
SOL53.09% / -3.2854.28% / -1.32UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 1 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W IV 29.99% / 7D RV 32.59% · spread -2.60 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 41.91% / 7D RV 40.46% · spread +1.45 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 53.09% / 7D RV 59.74% · spread -6.65 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Original report summary

Derivasys data at October 1, 16:30 UTC show the Solana–Bitcoin one-week ATM implied-volatility gap narrowing by 2.41 volatility points to 23.10 points, while the Solana–Ether skew gap widened.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 29.99% · Δ -0.87 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 41.91% · Δ -0.99 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 53.09% · Δ -3.28 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -1.32 vol pts · Δ -0.57 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -2.95 vol pts · Δ -0.65 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 2.22 vol pts · Δ +0.22 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 29.99% / 7D RV 32.59% · spread -2.60 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 41.91% / 7D RV 40.46% · spread +1.45 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 53.09% / 7D RV 59.74% · spread -6.65 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below)

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 29.99% · Δ -0.87 vol ptspercentile rank 29.4% by absolute move · full history (n=160)

ETH 1W ATM IV 41.91% · Δ -0.99 vol ptspercentile rank 20.5% by absolute move · full history (n=44)

SOL 1W ATM IV 53.09% · Δ -3.28 vol ptspercentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -1.32 vol pts · Δ -0.57 vol ptspercentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · full history (n=160)

ETH 1W RR25 -2.95 vol pts · Δ -0.65 vol ptspercentile rank 36.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 2.22 vol pts · Δ +0.22 vol ptspercentile rank 8.8% by absolute move · full history (n=34)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.96 vol pts · Δ +0.11 vol ptspercentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · full history (n=160)

ETH 1W BF25 3.05 vol pts · Δ +0.53 vol ptspercentile rank 90.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 2.58 vol pts · Δ -0.80 vol ptspercentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 29.99% / 7D RV 32.59% · spread -2.60 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 41.91% / 7D RV 40.46% · spread +1.45 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 53.09% / 7D RV 59.74% · spread -6.65 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 1 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; ETH 1 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; SOL 1 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 29.4% by absolute move · full history (n=160)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · full history (n=160)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · full history (n=160)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 20.5% by absolute move · full history (n=44)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 36.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 90.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 73.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 8.8% by absolute move · full history (n=34)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC32.59%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH40.46%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL59.74%Partial99.8313% / 99.5% required16 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 01 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 90,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.09,
  "rv24hPercent": 32.61,
  "rv7dPercent": 32.59,
  "rv30dPercent": 35.28,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 29.99,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -2.6,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -2.62,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.29
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 01 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.03,
  "rv24hPercent": 39.59,
  "rv7dPercent": 40.46,
  "rv30dPercent": 47.54,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 41.91,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 1.45,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 2.32,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.63
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 01 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -1.77,
  "rv24hPercent": 49.63,
  "rv7dPercent": 59.74,
  "rv30dPercent": 58.3,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43109
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43109,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.7894,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 88,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 53.09,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -6.65,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 3.46,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.21
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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