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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options: Ether ranks above Solana on implied-versus-realised volatility

At the September 30 cutoff, Derivasys data show Ether one-week ATM IV stood 1.22 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while Bitcoin's equivalent spread stood at -2.73 points and Solana's at -4.49 points. The Ether–Solana one-week implied-versus-realised range was 5.71 volatility points. This separates the majors on a common volatility comparison despite falling one-week ATM IV across all three; the spread readings are levels, without measured daily changes.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +1.30%1W ATM IV 30.86%1W RR25 -0.75 vol pts1W BF25 +1.85 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.73 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.29%1W ATM IV 42.90%1W RR25 -2.30 vol pts1W BF25 +2.52 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +1.22 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h +1.09%1W ATM IV 56.37%1W RR25 +2.00 vol pts1W BF25 +3.38 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -4.49 vol ptsPartial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Lead comparison: Unavailable.

01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Ether's one-week ATM IV change was -3.19 volatility points. Bitcoin's one-week ATM IV change was -2.30 volatility points. The Bitcoin–Ether one-week ATM IV daily-change dispersion was 0.89 points. Ether therefore retained the richest implied-versus-realised reading even while leading the decline in central implied volatility. Skew also differentiated the endpoints: Solana had the highest one-week call-minus-put RR25 and remained call-rich, while Ether had the lowest reading and was put-rich. One-year-minus-one-week ATM IV curve comparisons are unavailable across the majors. The realised-volatility comparison here uses one-minute returns at the cutoff; completed-session close-to-close realised volatility is a separate measure. Crypto and SPX realised volatility use different annualisation clocks.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 25.51 vol points; signed spread change -0.47 vol points. Historical percentile rank 81%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 31 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 0.89 vol points. Historical percentile rank 16%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 31 historical observations; minimum 20.

BTC stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 0.47 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 25.51 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 0.89 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +1.22 vol points; SOL has the lowest at -4.49 vol points. The range between these spreads is 5.71 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (25 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 80.6%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 16.1%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 74.2%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 83.3%.

BTC

1W ATM IV change

+0.47 points from the group median

SOL

1W ATM IV level

+13.47 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+2.75 points from the group median

ETH

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

+3.95 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 56.37ETH · 42.90BTC · 30.86
Daily 1W ATM IV changeBTC · -2.30SOL · -2.77ETH · -3.19
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · 1.22BTC · -2.73SOL · -4.49
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 2.00BTC · -0.75 · up 1ETH · -2.30 · down 1
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -2.30 · up 1BTC · -0.75 · down 1SOL · 2.00
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceBTC · 1.30SOL · 1.09ETH · 0.29

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.1–3.5 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.80%+17.76 vol pts2.11×44.09%11.06%percentile rank 70.1%+0.449
ETH47.67%+31.63 vol pts2.97×48.35%11.06%percentile rank 32.8%+0.332
SOL55.67%+39.63 vol pts3.47×74.41%11.06%percentile rank 50.8%+0.481

As of 29 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+1.30%30.86%-2.30 vol pts33.59%-2.73 vol pts-0.75 vol pts+1.85 vol pts
ETH+0.29%42.90%-3.19 vol pts41.68%+1.22 vol pts-2.30 vol pts+2.52 vol pts
SOL+1.09%56.37%-2.77 vol pts60.86%-4.49 vol pts+2.00 vol pts+3.38 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC30.86% / -2.3033.44% / -1.1136.76% / -0.5237.72% / -0.34
ETH42.90% / -3.1948.28% / +0.1551.71% / -0.2053.47% / -0.15
SOL56.37% / -2.7755.60% / -1.38UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Original report summary

At the September 30 cutoff, Derivasys data show Ether one-week ATM IV stood 1.22 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while Bitcoin's equivalent spread stood at -2.73 points and Solana's at -4.49 points. The Ether–Solana one-week implied-versus-realised range was 5.71 volatility points. This separates the majors on a common volatility comparison despite falling one-week ATM IV across all three; the spread readings are levels, without measured daily changes.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 30.86% · Δ -2.30 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 42.90% · Δ -3.19 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 56.37% · Δ -2.77 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.75 vol pts · Δ -0.35 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -2.30 vol pts · Δ -2.63 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 2.00 vol pts · Δ +0.07 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 30.86% / 7D RV 33.59% · spread -2.73 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 42.90% / 7D RV 41.68% · spread +1.22 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 56.37% / 7D RV 60.86% · spread -4.49 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below)

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 30.86% · Δ -2.30 vol ptspercentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · full history (n=159)

ETH 1W ATM IV 42.90% · Δ -3.19 vol ptspercentile rank 60.5% by absolute move · full history (n=43)

SOL 1W ATM IV 56.37% · Δ -2.77 vol ptspercentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · full history (n=33)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -0.75 vol pts · Δ -0.35 vol ptspercentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W RR25 -2.30 vol pts · Δ -2.63 vol ptspercentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 2.00 vol pts · Δ +0.07 vol ptspercentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=33)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.85 vol pts · Δ +0.35 vol ptspercentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25 2.52 vol pts · Δ -0.47 vol ptspercentile rank 80.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 3.38 vol pts · Δ +0.19 vol ptspercentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 30.86% / 7D RV 33.59% · spread -2.73 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 42.90% / 7D RV 41.68% · spread +1.22 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 56.37% / 7D RV 60.86% · spread -4.49 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; ETH 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; SOL 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · full history (n=159)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 60.5% by absolute move · full history (n=43)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 80.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · full history (n=33)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=33)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC33.59%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH41.68%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL60.86%Partial99.8313% / 99.5% required16 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1.3,
  "rv24hPercent": 41.44,
  "rv7dPercent": 33.59,
  "rv30dPercent": 35.3,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 30.86,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -2.73,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -10.58,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -4.44
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.29,
  "rv24hPercent": 44.55,
  "rv7dPercent": 41.68,
  "rv30dPercent": 47.5,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 42.9,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 1.22,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -1.65,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -4.6
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1.09,
  "rv24hPercent": 65.84,
  "rv7dPercent": 60.86,
  "rv30dPercent": 58.34,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43109
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43109,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.7894,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 88,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 56.37,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -4.49,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -9.47,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -1.97
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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