01 · Market read
The day across the three live Derivasys markets.
The cross-major one-week call-minus-put RR25 range widened by 3.15 volatility points to 4.08 points. Solana currently had the highest one-week RR25 at +2.49 volatility points, while Ether had the lowest at -1.59%. Solana one-week RR25 rose 3.61 volatility points, while Ether one-week RR25 fell 1.21 points. Calls were relatively richer in Solana and puts in Ether. The implied-versus-realised comparison remained differentiated: Ether one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility stood at +1.76 volatility points, Bitcoin at -0.58 points and Solana at -3.94 points. These are comparative levels rather than measured daily spread changes. Solana's seven-day realised-volatility estimate qualifies with partial coverage. Cross-sectional historical percentiles, pair correlations and comparable long-dated curve slopes remain unavailable. Crypto and SPX realised volatility use different annualisation clocks; completed-session benchmark comparisons are unavailable.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: 24.30 vol points; signed spread change +0.86 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 2.06 vol points. Stored daily changes across 3 assets.
ETH stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 1.20 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.
This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.
Cross-sectional thesis
Where the complex is diverging.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 24.30 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 2.06 vol pts across the complex.
ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +1.76 vol points; SOL has the lowest at -3.94 vol points. The range between these spreads is 5.70 vol points.
1W ATM IV change
-1.20 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
+12.60 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+2.73 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-3.36 points from the group median
Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | SOL · 56.45 | ETH · 43.85 | BTC · 32.15 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | SOL · -0.46 | BTC · -1.32 | ETH · -2.52 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | ETH · 1.76 | BTC · -0.58 | SOL · -3.94 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | SOL · 2.49 · up 1 | BTC · -0.24 · up 1 | ETH · -1.59 · down 2 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | ETH · -1.59 · up 2 | BTC · -0.24 · down 1 | SOL · 2.49 · down 1 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | BTC · unavailable | ETH · unavailable | SOL · unavailable |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | BTC · unavailable | ETH · unavailable | SOL · unavailable |
| 24h spot performance | SOL · 1.03 | BTC · 0.35 | ETH · 0.19 |
02 · Macro and crypto diary
Macro and crypto context
29 September 2026
Crypto: Cointelegraph reported slower US spot crypto ETF inflows across Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP funds. Its Ethereum coverage said Glamsterdam would bring proposer-builder separation, block-level access lists and new gas pricing, while the mainnet date remained unset.
03 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 32.15% / -1.32 | 33.94% / -0.75 | 36.90% / -0.31 | 37.83% / -0.27 |
| ETH | 43.85% / -2.52 | 47.13% / -1.27 | 51.53% / -0.46 | 53.33% / -0.30 |
| SOL | 56.45% / -0.46 | 55.50% / +1.06 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
05 · Constituent evidence
Audit the independently published source artifacts.
29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC
Read the BTC report29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC
Read the ETH report29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC
Read the SOL reportEvidence, source data and methodology
Major Coins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
ETH 1W ATM IV 43.85% · Δ -2.52 vol pts
SOL 1W ATM IV 56.45% · Δ -0.46 vol pts
ETH minus SOL: signed spread -12.60 vol pts · spread Δ -2.06 vol pts
ETH percentile rank 40.5% by absolute move · full history (n=42)
SOL percentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Original report summary
Ether one-week ATM IV fell 2.52 volatility points, compared with a 0.46-point decline in Solana one-week ATM IV, according to Derivasys data for the 24-hour window ending September 29. The difference between their daily changes was 2.06 volatility points. Bitcoin one-week ATM IV fell 1.32 points, placing its adjustment between those extremes. All three majors eased at this tenor, but Ether underwent the sharper repricing of volatility implied by options near the underlying price.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 32.15% · Δ -1.32 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 43.85% · Δ -2.52 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 56.45% · Δ -0.46 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.24 vol pts · Δ +1.07 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -1.59 vol pts · Δ -1.21 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 2.49 vol pts · Δ +3.61 vol pts
Relative value: BTC 1W IV 32.15% / 7D RV 32.73% · spread -0.58 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 43.85% / 7D RV 42.09% · spread +1.76 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 56.45% / 7D RV 60.39% · spread -3.94 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below)
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 32.15% · Δ -1.32 vol ptspercentile rank 38.6% by absolute move · full history (n=158)
ETH 1W ATM IV 43.85% · Δ -2.52 vol ptspercentile rank 40.5% by absolute move · full history (n=42)
SOL 1W ATM IV 56.45% · Δ -0.46 vol ptspercentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -0.24 vol pts · Δ +1.07 vol ptspercentile rank 64.6% by absolute move · full history (n=158)
ETH 1W RR25 -1.59 vol pts · Δ -1.21 vol ptspercentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W RR25 2.49 vol pts · Δ +3.61 vol ptspercentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 1.52 vol pts · Δ +0.01 vol ptspercentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W BF25 2.39 vol pts · Δ -0.33 vol ptspercentile rank 63.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25 3.77 vol pts · Δ +0.09 vol ptspercentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
IV versus RV
BTC 1W IV 32.15% / 7D RV 32.73% · spread -0.58 vol pts
ETH 1W IV 43.85% / 7D RV 42.09% · spread +1.76 vol pts
SOL 1W IV 56.45% / 7D RV 60.39% · spread -3.94 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: BTC 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC; ETH 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC; SOL 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 38.6% by absolute move · full history (n=158)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 64.6% by absolute move · full history (n=158)
BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 40.5% by absolute move · full history (n=42)
ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 63.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 16.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 32.73% | Available | 100% / 97% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| ETH | 42.09% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| SOL | 60.39% | Partial | 99.8313% / 99.5% required | 16 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
Full RV evidence and methodology
BTC · Surface cutoff 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC.
{
"source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
"fallbackObservations": 88,
"fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
"samplingInterval": "1 minute",
"annualizationBasis": "365 days",
"windowEnd": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
"spotWindowStart": "2026-09-28T21:59:00+00:00",
"spotMetric": "spot-index return",
"spotUnit": "percent",
"spotMove24hPercent": 0.35,
"rv24hPercent": 32,
"rv7dPercent": 32.73,
"rv30dPercent": 35.28,
"observations": {
"24h": 1440,
"7d": 10080,
"30d": 43200
},
"coverage": {
"24h": {
"status": "complete",
"observedReturns": 1440,
"expectedReturns": 1440,
"coveragePercent": 100,
"missingPriceMinutes": 0,
"missingIntervals": 0,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
"unavailableReason": null
},
"7d": {
"status": "complete",
"observedReturns": 10080,
"expectedReturns": 10080,
"coveragePercent": 100,
"missingPriceMinutes": 0,
"missingIntervals": 0,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
"unavailableReason": null
},
"30d": {
"status": "complete",
"observedReturns": 43200,
"expectedReturns": 43200,
"coveragePercent": 100,
"missingPriceMinutes": 0,
"missingIntervals": 0,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
"unavailableReason": null
}
},
"coveragePolicy": {
"version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
"minimumCoveragePercent": null,
"minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
"24h": 98,
"7d": 97,
"30d": 99.5
},
"maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
"methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
},
"spotUnavailableReason": null,
"oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 32.15,
"oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -0.58,
"oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 0.15,
"oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -3.13
}ETH · Surface cutoff 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC.
{
"source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
"fallbackObservations": 88,
"fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
"samplingInterval": "1 minute",
"annualizationBasis": "365 days",
"windowEnd": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
"spotWindowStart": "2026-09-28T21:59:00+00:00",
"spotMetric": "spot-index return",
"spotUnit": "percent",
"spotMove24hPercent": 0.19,
"rv24hPercent": 43.29,
"rv7dPercent": 42.09,
"rv30dPercent": 47.73,
"observations": {
"24h": 1440,
"7d": 10080,
"30d": 43200
},
"coverage": {
"24h": {
"status": "complete",
"observedReturns": 1440,
"expectedReturns": 1440,
"coveragePercent": 100,
"missingPriceMinutes": 0,
"missingIntervals": 0,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
"unavailableReason": null
},
"7d": {
"status": "complete",
"observedReturns": 10080,
"expectedReturns": 10080,
"coveragePercent": 100,
"missingPriceMinutes": 0,
"missingIntervals": 0,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
"unavailableReason": null
},
"30d": {
"status": "complete",
"observedReturns": 43200,
"expectedReturns": 43200,
"coveragePercent": 100,
"missingPriceMinutes": 0,
"missingIntervals": 0,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
"unavailableReason": null
}
},
"coveragePolicy": {
"version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
"minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
"minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
"24h": 99.5,
"7d": 99.5,
"30d": 99.5
},
"maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
"methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
},
"spotUnavailableReason": null,
"oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 43.85,
"oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 1.76,
"oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 0.56,
"oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -3.88
}SOL · Surface cutoff 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.
{
"source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
"fallbackObservations": 0,
"fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
"samplingInterval": "1 minute",
"annualizationBasis": "365 days",
"windowEnd": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
"spotWindowStart": "2026-09-28T21:59:00+00:00",
"spotMetric": "spot-index return",
"spotUnit": "percent",
"spotMove24hPercent": 1.03,
"rv24hPercent": 58.62,
"rv7dPercent": 60.39,
"rv30dPercent": 58.29,
"observations": {
"24h": 1440,
"7d": 10063,
"30d": 43109
},
"coverage": {
"24h": {
"status": "complete",
"observedReturns": 1440,
"expectedReturns": 1440,
"coveragePercent": 100,
"missingPriceMinutes": 0,
"missingIntervals": 0,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
"unavailableReason": null
},
"7d": {
"status": "partial",
"observedReturns": 10063,
"expectedReturns": 10080,
"coveragePercent": 99.8313,
"missingPriceMinutes": 16,
"missingIntervals": 1,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
"unavailableReason": null
},
"30d": {
"status": "partial",
"observedReturns": 43109,
"expectedReturns": 43200,
"coveragePercent": 99.7894,
"missingPriceMinutes": 88,
"missingIntervals": 3,
"largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
"unavailableReason": null
}
},
"coveragePolicy": {
"version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
"minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
"minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
"24h": 99.5,
"7d": 99.5,
"30d": 99.5
},
"maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
"methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
},
"spotUnavailableReason": null,
"oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 56.45,
"oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -3.94,
"oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -2.17,
"oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -1.84
}06 · Methodology and provenance
A derived publication with no duplicated market data.
The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.