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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options: Ether ranks above Solana on implied-versus-realised volatility

The 1W IV − 7D RV spread differs by 4.83 vol points between ETH and SOL.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h -1.57%1W ATM IV 34.60%1W RR25 -1.54 vol pts1W BF25 +1.74 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +0.67 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h -0.65%1W ATM IV 45.09%1W RR25 -2.02 vol pts1W BF25 +2.56 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +1.48 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h -2.79%1W ATM IV 57.69%1W RR25 -0.14 vol pts1W BF25 +3.42 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -3.35 vol ptsPartial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Lead: 1W IV − 7D RV level snapshot. Historical move percentile: Unavailable for a level comparison.

Major-coin options: Ether ranks above Solana on implied-versus-realised volatility. Current 1W implied volatility and 7d realised volatility level snapshot from Derivasys data; no change is claimed.
Source: Derivasys options data. Current 1W IV versus 7d RV level snapshot; no period-over-period change is claimed. Cite this report.
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01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

The major-coin comparison turns on the relationship between one-week option-implied volatility and seven-day realised volatility. Ether screened richest and Solana cheapest, with Bitcoin between them. That ranking compares each asset with its own realised history; it does not rank their outright implied-volatility levels. The daily option repricing ran in the same direction across all three assets, but at different speeds. Bitcoin one-week at-the-money IV increased 2.78 volatility points, Ether one-week at-the-money IV increased 1.42 points, and Solana one-week at-the-money IV increased 0.73 points. Solana still held the highest one-week at-the-money IV level, while Bitcoin held the lowest. The one-year-minus-one-week slope comparison is unavailable because the required fixed-tenor values are missing.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 23.09 vol points; signed spread change -2.05 vol points. Historical percentile rank 70%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 30 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 2.05 vol points. Historical percentile rank 30%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 30 historical observations; minimum 20.

BTC stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 1.36 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 23.09 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 2.05 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +1.48 vol points; SOL has the lowest at -3.35 vol points. The range between these spreads is 4.83 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.87 (26 observations); BTC/SOL 0.82 (10 observations); ETH/SOL 0.90 (10 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 70.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 30.0%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 36.7%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 79.2%.

BTC

1W ATM IV change

+1.36 points from the group median

SOL

1W ATM IV level

+12.60 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+1.40 points from the group median

SOL

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

-4.02 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 57.69ETH · 45.09BTC · 34.60
Daily 1W ATM IV changeBTC · 2.78ETH · 1.42SOL · 0.73
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · 1.48BTC · 0.67SOL · -3.35
Highest 1W RR25SOL · -0.14BTC · -1.54 · up 1ETH · -2.02 · down 1
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -2.02 · up 1BTC · -1.54 · down 1SOL · -0.14
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceETH · -0.65BTC · -1.57SOL · -2.79

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

28 September 2026

Macro: Al Jazeera reported Brent crude rising after Washington dismissed Tehran’s proposal to end the war. The oil report supplies broad economic context, without a measured link to the Ether–Solana implied-versus-realised gap.

Crypto: Cointelegraph reported that Bitget had resumed Bitcoin withdrawals and scheduled Ether withdrawals to return as services were restored following a hack. That concerns two constituents but does not explain their relative options readings against Solana.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.3–3.6 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.59%+18.72 vol pts2.26×43.92%10.79%percentile rank 69.4%+0.422
ETH46.77%+31.90 vol pts3.15×48.43%10.79%percentile rank 33.9%+0.315
SOL53.76%+38.89 vol pts3.62×72.65%10.79%percentile rank 48.7%+0.456

As of 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC-1.57%34.60%+2.78 vol pts33.93%+0.67 vol pts-1.54 vol pts+1.74 vol pts
ETH-0.65%45.09%+1.42 vol pts43.61%+1.48 vol pts-2.02 vol pts+2.56 vol pts
SOL-2.79%57.69%+0.73 vol pts61.04%-3.35 vol pts-0.14 vol pts+3.42 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC34.60% / +2.7835.15% / +1.4737.38% / +0.6238.11% / +0.36
ETH45.09% / +1.4248.00% / +0.5151.96% / +0.1853.66% / -0.06
SOL57.69% / +0.7354.92% / -0.62UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W IV 34.60% / 7D RV 33.93% · spread +0.67 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 45.09% / 7D RV 43.61% · spread +1.48 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 57.69% / 7D RV 61.04% · spread -3.35 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Original report summary

Derivasys data show Ether one-week at-the-money IV stood 1.48 volatility points above Ether seven-day realised volatility, while Solana one-week at-the-money IV stood 3.35 points below Solana seven-day realised volatility. The 4.83-point range between those implied-versus-realised readings was at the 79.2 percentile of available aligned history. This is a comparison of levels at the cutoff, not a measured daily widening. Bitcoin lay between the two, leaving the major-coin relative-value picture more differentiated than their common rise in one-week implied volatility suggests.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 34.60% · Δ +2.78 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 45.09% · Δ +1.42 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 57.69% · Δ +0.73 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -1.54 vol pts · Δ -1.06 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -2.02 vol pts · Δ -1.96 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 -0.14 vol pts · Δ -4.08 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 34.60% / 7D RV 33.93% · spread +0.67 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 45.09% / 7D RV 43.61% · spread +1.48 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 57.69% / 7D RV 61.04% · spread -3.35 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below)

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 34.60% · Δ +2.78 vol ptspercentile rank 73.2% by absolute move · full history (n=157)

ETH 1W ATM IV 45.09% · Δ +1.42 vol ptspercentile rank 22.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41)

SOL 1W ATM IV 57.69% · Δ +0.73 vol ptspercentile rank 23.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -1.54 vol pts · Δ -1.06 vol ptspercentile rank 64.3% by absolute move · full history (n=157)

ETH 1W RR25 -2.02 vol pts · Δ -1.96 vol ptspercentile rank 76.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 -0.14 vol pts · Δ -4.08 vol ptspercentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.74 vol pts · Δ -0.08 vol ptspercentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25 2.56 vol pts · Δ -0.24 vol ptspercentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 3.42 vol pts · Δ +0.02 vol ptspercentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 34.60% / 7D RV 33.93% · spread +0.67 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 45.09% / 7D RV 43.61% · spread +1.48 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 57.69% / 7D RV 61.04% · spread -3.35 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC; ETH 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC; SOL 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 73.2% by absolute move · full history (n=157)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 64.3% by absolute move · full history (n=157)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 22.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 76.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 23.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 3.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC33.93%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH43.61%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL61.04%Partial99.8313% / 99.5% required16 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-27T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -1.57,
  "rv24hPercent": 31.12,
  "rv7dPercent": 33.93,
  "rv30dPercent": 34.73,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 34.6,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 0.67,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 3.48,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -0.13
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 88,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-27T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.65,
  "rv24hPercent": 39.86,
  "rv7dPercent": 43.61,
  "rv30dPercent": 47.17,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 45.09,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 1.48,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 5.23,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -2.08
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-27T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -2.79,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": 61.04,
  "rv30dPercent": 57.46,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1423,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43109
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1423,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 98.8194,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 98.8194% with 16 missing price minutes across 1 intervals and a largest gap of 16 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43109,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.7894,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 88,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 57.69,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -3.35,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 0.23
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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