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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options: Ether has the smallest implied-volatility discount and Solana the deepest discount to seven-day realised volatility

The 1W IV − 7D RV spread differs by 3.32 vol points between ETH and SOL.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.84%1W ATM IV 32.76%1W RR25 -0.62 vol pts1W BF25 +1.80 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -3.19 vol pts
  • ETHSpot-index 24h +0.31%1W ATM IV 43.69%1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts1W BF25 +2.73 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.78 vol pts
  • SOLSpot-index 24h +1.39%1W ATM IV 56.12%1W RR25 +4.04 vol pts1W BF25 +3.68 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -6.10 vol pts

Lead: 1W IV − 7D RV level snapshot. Historical move percentile: Unavailable for a level comparison.

Major-coin options: Ether has the smallest implied-volatility discount and Solana the deepest discount to seven-day realised volatility. Current 1W implied volatility and 7d realised volatility level snapshot from Derivasys data; no change is claimed.
Source: Derivasys options data. Current 1W IV versus 7d RV level snapshot; no period-over-period change is claimed. Cite this report.
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Solana one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility stood at negative 6.10 volatility points, compared with negative 2.78 points for Ether and negative 3.19 points for Bitcoin. Alongside that difference in levels, one-week ATM IV changes were tightly grouped: Bitcoin’s increase led Solana’s by 0.07 volatility points, the smallest such dispersion in the available aligned history. Relative put-side and call-side volatility diverged more: the Solana-to-Bitcoin one-week RR25 level gap widened by 0.73 volatility points to 4.66 points. The one-year-minus-one-week ATM IV comparison is unavailable across the three assets.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 23.36 vol points; signed spread change -0.07 vol points. Historical percentile rank 76%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 29 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 0.07 vol points. Historical percentile rank 0%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 29 historical observations; minimum 20.

BTC stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 0.05 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 23.36 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 0.07 vol pts across the complex.

ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at -2.78 vol points; SOL has the lowest at -6.10 vol points. The range between these spreads is 3.32 vol points.

Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.88 (26 observations); BTC/SOL 0.80 (10 observations); ETH/SOL 0.92 (10 observations).

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 75.9%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 0.0%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 79.3%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 73.9%.

BTC

1W ATM IV change

+0.05 points from the group median

SOL

1W ATM IV level

+12.43 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+4.65 points from the group median

SOL

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

-2.91 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 56.12ETH · 43.69BTC · 32.76
Daily 1W ATM IV changeBTC · 2.06ETH · 2.01SOL · 1.99
1W IV minus 7d realisedETH · -2.78BTC · -3.19SOL · -6.10
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 4.04ETH · -0.61BTC · -0.62
Lowest 1W RR25BTC · -0.62ETH · -0.61SOL · 4.04
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceSOL · 1.39BTC · 0.84ETH · 0.31

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.3–3.6 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.59%+18.72 vol pts2.26×43.92%10.79%percentile rank 69.4%+0.422
ETH46.77%+31.90 vol pts3.15×48.43%10.79%percentile rank 33.9%+0.315
SOL53.76%+38.89 vol pts3.62×72.65%10.79%percentile rank 48.7%+0.456

As of 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+0.84%32.76%+2.06 vol pts35.95%-3.19 vol pts-0.62 vol pts+1.80 vol pts
ETH+0.31%43.69%+2.01 vol pts46.47%-2.78 vol pts-0.61 vol pts+2.73 vol pts
SOL+1.39%56.12%+1.99 vol pts62.22%-6.10 vol pts+4.04 vol pts+3.68 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC32.76% / +2.0634.05% / +0.3136.85% / -0.2537.81% / -0.14
ETH43.69% / +2.0147.63% / +0.6751.70% / +0.0453.76% / -0.02
SOL56.12% / +1.9955.05% / +0.42UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W IV 32.76% / 7D RV 35.95% · spread -3.19 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 43.69% / 7D RV 46.47% · spread -2.78 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 56.12% / 7D RV 62.22% · spread -6.10 vol pts

Original report summary

Derivasys data show one-week ATM implied volatility below seven-day realised volatility in Bitcoin, Ether and Solana at the cutoff. Solana had the largest shortfall, while Ether had the smallest, leaving a 3.32-volatility-point range in the implied-minus-realised comparison. This is a comparison of levels across the three assets, not a measured daily widening of that range. At-the-money implied volatility reflects options near each coin’s current price; realised volatility measures observed returns.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 32.76% · Δ +2.06 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 43.69% · Δ +2.01 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 56.12% · Δ +1.99 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.62 vol pts · Δ +0.67 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 4.04 vol pts · Δ +1.40 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 32.76% / 7D RV 35.95% · spread -3.19 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 43.69% / 7D RV 46.47% · spread -2.78 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 56.12% / 7D RV 62.22% · spread -6.10 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 32.76% · Δ +2.06 vol ptspercentile rank 59.0% by absolute move · full history (n=156)

ETH 1W ATM IV 43.69% · Δ +2.01 vol ptspercentile rank 27.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40)

SOL 1W ATM IV 56.12% · Δ +1.99 vol ptspercentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -0.62 vol pts · Δ +0.67 vol ptspercentile rank 46.8% by absolute move · full history (n=156)

ETH 1W RR25 -0.61 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol ptspercentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 4.04 vol pts · Δ +1.40 vol ptspercentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.80 vol pts · Δ +0.15 vol ptspercentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25 2.73 vol pts · Δ +0.27 vol ptspercentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25 3.68 vol pts · Δ +0.50 vol ptspercentile rank 63.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 32.76% / 7D RV 35.95% · spread -3.19 vol pts

ETH 1W IV 43.69% / 7D RV 46.47% · spread -2.78 vol pts

SOL 1W IV 56.12% / 7D RV 62.22% · spread -6.10 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC; ETH 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC; SOL 27 Sept 2026, 19:05 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 59.0% by absolute move · full history (n=156)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 46.8% by absolute move · full history (n=156)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 27.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 46.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 53.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 63.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC35.95%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum
ETH46.47%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum
SOL62.22%Available100% / 99.5% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 27 Sept 2026, 19:05:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 72,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-27T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-26T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.84,
  "rv24hPercent": 18.32,
  "rv7dPercent": 35.95,
  "rv30dPercent": 34.45,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 32.76,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -3.19,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 14.44,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -1.69
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 27 Sept 2026, 19:05:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 72,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-27T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-26T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.31,
  "rv24hPercent": 25.19,
  "rv7dPercent": 46.47,
  "rv30dPercent": 46.81,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 43.69,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -2.78,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 18.5,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -3.12
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 27 Sept 2026, 19:05:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-27T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-26T19:05:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1.39,
  "rv24hPercent": 46.61,
  "rv7dPercent": 62.22,
  "rv30dPercent": 56.96,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43126
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43126,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8287,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 72,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 56.12,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -6.1,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 9.51,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -0.84
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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