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Daily major-coins market report · BTC, ETH and SOL

Major-coin options volatility gap narrows as Solana eases

SOL minus BTC 1W ATM IV: +23.19 vol points; daily spread change -2.47.

Published · By Sean Gordon / Derivasys Research · Latest component snapshot

Snapshot · 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.11%1W ATM IV 30.64%1W RR25 -1.12 vol pts1W BF25 +1.64 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
  • ETHSpot-index 24h -0.21%1W ATM IV 40.91%1W RR25 -1.33 vol pts1W BF25 +2.41 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
  • SOLSpot-index 24h -0.50%1W ATM IV 53.83%1W RR25 +3.03 vol pts1W BF25 +3.07 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable

Notable move: SOL 1W ATM IV Δ -1.39 vol pts → 53.83% · percentile rank 27.6% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29); BTC 1W ATM IV Δ +1.08 vol pts → 30.64% · percentile rank 36.1% by absolute move · full history (n=155).

Major-coin options volatility gap narrows as Solana eases. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.
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01 · Market read

The day across the three live Derivasys markets.

Derivasys data show SOL one-week ATM IV at 53.83% and BTC one-week ATM IV at 30.64%, preserving Solana’s lead even as their level gap fell to 23.19 volatility points. ETH one-week ATM IV rose 1.66 points, the largest daily increase among the majors, while SOL one-week ATM IV fell 1.39 points, the largest daily decline. Their opposing moves produced a 3.05-point spread in one-week ATM IV changes. The ordering of one-week ATM IV levels was unchanged. Cross-asset historical percentiles and pair correlations were not available from sufficient aligned history.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 23.19 vol points; signed spread change -2.47 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 3.05 vol points. Stored daily changes across 3 assets.

SOL stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.47 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.

This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.

Cross-sectional thesis

Where the complex is diverging.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 23.19 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 3.05 vol pts across the complex.

Comparable implied-versus-realised values are not available for every constituent.

SOL

1W ATM IV change

-2.47 points from the group median

SOL

1W ATM IV level

+12.92 points from the group median

SOL

1W RR25 level

+4.15 points from the group median

Relative-value rankings

Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.

Metric1st2nd3rd
1W ATM IV levelSOL · 53.83ETH · 40.91BTC · 30.64
Daily 1W ATM IV changeETH · 1.66BTC · 1.08SOL · -1.39
1W IV minus 7d realisedBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Highest 1W RR25SOL · 3.03BTC · -1.12ETH · -1.33
Lowest 1W RR25ETH · -1.33BTC · -1.12SOL · 3.03
1Y minus 1W curve slopeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve changeBTC · unavailableETH · unavailableSOL · unavailable
24h spot performanceBTC · 0.11ETH · -0.21SOL · -0.50

02 · Macro and crypto diary

Macro and crypto context

26 September 2026

Macro: Al Jazeera reported the rejection of Tehran’s proposal, submitted via Qatar, to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks within a week if Washington agreed.

Crypto: The Defiant reported that Anza was asking developers to test Alpenglow integrations on Solana’s devnet, with mainnet activation pending. Decrypt reported a streak of Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.

The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.

BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.3–3.6 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.

Asset30d ATM IVVIX spreadIV / VIX20d crypto RV20-session SPX RVRV spread percentile30-session correlation
BTC33.59%+18.72 vol pts2.26×43.92%10.79%percentile rank 69.4%+0.422
ETH46.77%+31.90 vol pts3.15×48.43%10.79%percentile rank 33.9%+0.315
SOL53.76%+38.89 vol pts3.62×72.65%10.79%percentile rank 48.7%+0.456

As of 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).

03 · Cross-asset scorecard

Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.

AssetSpot 24h1W ATM1W ATM Δ7d RV1W IV − 7d RV1W RR251W BF25
BTC+0.11%30.64%+1.08 vol ptsUnavailableUnavailable-1.12 vol pts+1.64 vol pts
ETH-0.21%40.91%+1.66 vol ptsUnavailableUnavailable-1.33 vol pts+2.41 vol pts
SOL-0.50%53.83%-1.39 vol ptsUnavailableUnavailable+3.03 vol pts+3.07 vol pts

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.

Asset1W ATM / Δ1M ATM / Δ3M ATM / Δ6M ATM / Δ
BTC30.64% / +1.0833.71% / -0.0437.09% / -0.1337.94% / -0.17
ETH40.91% / +1.6647.05% / +0.0751.66% / -0.1053.71% / -0.17
SOL53.83% / -1.3954.70% / +0.28UnavailableUnavailable

05 · Constituent evidence

Audit the independently published source artifacts.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Major Coins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

SOL 1W ATM IV 53.83% · Δ -1.39 vol pts

BTC 1W ATM IV 30.64% · Δ +1.08 vol pts

SOL minus BTC: signed spread +23.19 vol pts · spread Δ -2.47 vol pts

SOL percentile rank 27.6% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29)

BTC percentile rank 36.1% by absolute move · full history (n=155)

Original report summary

The one-week implied-volatility premium carried by Solana over Bitcoin narrowed between 25 September, 18:31 UTC and 26 September, 18:31 UTC. Derivasys data put the SOL–BTC one-week ATM IV gap at 23.19 volatility points, down 2.47 points from the prior cutoff, while Solana still had the highest one-week ATM IV among the three major coins. Ether led the daily increase in that metric and Solana declined, bringing their levels closer together. The cross-asset story is convergence in volatility pricing; separate skew readings show another narrowing gap.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 30.64% · Δ +1.08 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 40.91% · Δ +1.66 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 53.83% · Δ -1.39 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -1.12 vol pts · Δ +0.07 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -1.33 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 3.03 vol pts · Δ -3.34 vol pts

IV level gap: 1W ATM IV level gap 23.19 vol pts (SOL 53.83% versus BTC 30.64%) · SOL minus BTC spread Δ -2.47 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 30.64% · Δ +1.08 vol ptspercentile rank 36.1% by absolute move · full history (n=155)

ETH 1W ATM IV 40.91% · Δ +1.66 vol ptspercentile rank 23.1% by absolute move · full history (n=39)

SOL 1W ATM IV 53.83% · Δ -1.39 vol ptspercentile rank 27.6% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -1.12 vol pts · Δ +0.07 vol ptspercentile rank 6.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W RR25 -1.33 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol ptspercentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

SOL 1W RR25 3.03 vol pts · Δ -3.34 vol ptspercentile rank 82.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.64 vol pts · Δ -0.01 vol ptspercentile rank 6.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25 2.41 vol pts · Δ +0.11 vol ptspercentile rank 12.8% by absolute move · full history (n=39)

SOL 1W BF25 3.07 vol pts · Δ -0.98 vol ptspercentile rank 86.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29)

IV versus RV

BTC Unavailable

ETH Unavailable

SOL Unavailable

Unavailable readings: BTC IV versus RV; ETH IV versus RV; SOL IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: BTC 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC; ETH 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC; SOL 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 36.1% by absolute move · full history (n=155)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 6.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 6.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 23.1% by absolute move · full history (n=39)

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 26.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 12.8% by absolute move · full history (n=39)

SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 27.6% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29)

SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 82.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29)

SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 86.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=29)

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTCUnavailableUnavailable99.3056% / 97% required67 min / 60 min maximum
ETHUnavailableUnavailable99.3056% / 99.5% required67 min / 60 min maximum
SOLUnavailableUnavailable99.3056% / 99.5% required67 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

BTC · Surface cutoff 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 97% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 72,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-25T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.11,
  "rv24hPercent": 15.57,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10010,
    "30d": 43130
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 10010,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.3056,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 97% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 43130,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.838,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.8380% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": null,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 98,
      "7d": 97,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 30.64,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 15.07,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

ETH · Surface cutoff 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 72,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-25T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.21,
  "rv24hPercent": 20.41,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10010,
    "30d": 43130
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 10010,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.3056,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 43130,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.838,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.8380% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 40.91,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 20.5,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

SOL · Surface cutoff 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 0,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-25T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.5,
  "rv24hPercent": 42.28,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10010,
    "30d": 43056
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 10010,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.3056,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 43056,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.6667,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 140,
      "missingIntervals": 4,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.6667% with 140 missing price minutes across 4 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 53.83,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 11.55,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

A derived publication with no duplicated market data.

The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.

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