01 · Market read
The day across the three live Derivasys markets.
The daily changes showed divergence across constituents: Ether 1W RR25 fell 3.43 volatility points, while Solana 1W RR25 fell 1.02 volatility points and Bitcoin 1W RR25 rose 0.21 volatility points versus the prior cutoff. Near-the-money adjustments also differed: Solana 1W ATM IV rose 1.73 volatility points and Ether 1W ATM IV rose 1.38 volatility points, whereas Bitcoin 1W ATM IV fell 0.01 volatility points over the same window.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 20.21 vol points; absolute gap change +1.74 vol points. Historical percentile rank 50%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 1.74 vol points. Historical percentile rank 23%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
BTC stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 1.39 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.
This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.
Cross-sectional thesis
Where the complex is diverging.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 20.21 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 1.74 vol pts across the complex.
SOL has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +7.86 vol points; BTC has the lowest at +1.36 vol points. The range between these spreads is 6.50 vol points.
Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.88 (25 observations).
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 50.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 23.3%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 80.0%.
1W ATM IV change
-1.39 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
+11.84 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-3.32 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-3.28 points from the group median
Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | SOL · 51.97 | ETH · 40.13 | BTC · 31.76 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | SOL · 1.73 | ETH · 1.38 | BTC · -0.01 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | SOL · 7.86 | ETH · 4.64 | BTC · 1.36 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | SOL · 0.97 | BTC · -0.49 · up 1 | ETH · -3.81 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | ETH · -3.81 · up 1 | BTC · -0.49 · down 1 | SOL · 0.97 |
| 24h spot performance | BTC · -2.56 | SOL · -3.08 | ETH · -4.84 |
02 · Macro and crypto diary
Macro and crypto context
7 October 2026
Crypto: Cointelegraph reported Tuesday Bitcoin ETF net inflows despite falling prices, alongside an extended Ether ETF outflow streak. The reporting covers different measurement periods, limiting direct flow comparisons. Cointelegraph also reported Bitmine's announced Ether accumulation ceiling, while CoinDesk reported the planned shutdown of Ethereum layer-2 Abstract. These developments add institutional and protocol context without establishing a causal explanation for the options divergence.
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.
The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.
BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.3–3.4 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.
| Asset | 30d ATM IV | VIX spread | IV / VIX | 20d crypto RV | 20-session SPX RV | RV spread percentile | 30-session correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.42% | +19.41 vol pts | 2.29× | 39.02% | 10.39% | percentile rank 53.4% | +0.609 |
| ETH | 45.69% | +30.68 vol pts | 3.04× | 40.77% | 10.39% | percentile rank 17.9% | +0.568 |
| SOL | 51.10% | +36.09 vol pts | 3.40× | 67.86% | 10.39% | percentile rank 44.9% | +0.577 |
As of 06 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).
03 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 31.76% / -0.01 | 34.99% / +0.36 | 36.87% / +0.10 | 37.44% / -0.09 |
| ETH | 40.13% / +1.38 | 45.69% / -0.12 | 50.05% / +0.12 | 52.14% / -0.20 |
| SOL | 51.97% / +1.73 | 50.79% / -1.75 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
05 · Constituent evidence
Audit the independently published source artifacts.
07 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Read the BTC report07 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Read the ETH report07 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Read the SOL reportEvidence, source data and methodology
Major Coins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
SOL 1W RR25 0.97 vol pts · Δ -1.02 vol pts
ETH 1W RR25 -3.81 vol pts · Δ -3.43 vol pts
SOL minus ETH: signed spread +4.78 vol pts · spread Δ +2.41 vol pts
SOL percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40)
ETH percentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Original report summary
Major-coin 1W RR25 level dispersion reached 4.78 volatility points between Solana and Ether at the October 7 cutoff. Positive Solana skew and negative Ether skew defined the extremes, with Bitcoin between them. The widening cross-sectional range accompanied differing ATM implied-volatility adjustments, while reported Bitcoin ETF inflows and Ether ETF outflows supplied institutional context.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.76% · Δ -0.01 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 40.13% · Δ +1.38 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 51.97% · Δ +1.73 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.49 vol pts · Δ +0.21 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -3.81 vol pts · Δ -3.43 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 0.97 vol pts · Δ -1.02 vol pts
Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.76% / 7D RV 30.40% · spread +1.36 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 40.13% / 7D RV 35.49% · spread +4.64 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 51.97% / 7D RV 44.11% · spread +7.86 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 31.76% · Δ -0.01 vol ptspercentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=166)
ETH 1W ATM IV 40.13% · Δ +1.38 vol ptspercentile rank 24.0% by absolute move · full history (n=50)
SOL 1W ATM IV 51.97% · Δ +1.73 vol ptspercentile rank 37.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -0.49 vol pts · Δ +0.21 vol ptspercentile rank 13.9% by absolute move · full history (n=166)
ETH 1W RR25 -3.81 vol pts · Δ -3.43 vol ptspercentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W RR25 0.97 vol pts · Δ -1.02 vol ptspercentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40)
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 1.59 vol pts · Δ -0.09 vol ptspercentile rank 32.5% by absolute move · full history (n=166)
ETH 1W BF25 2.43 vol pts · Δ -0.11 vol ptspercentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25 3.71 vol pts · Δ +1.84 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40)
IV versus RV
BTC 1W IV 31.76% / 7D RV 30.40% · spread +1.36 vol pts
ETH 1W IV 40.13% / 7D RV 35.49% · spread +4.64 vol pts
SOL 1W IV 51.97% / 7D RV 44.11% · spread +7.86 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: BTC 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; ETH 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; SOL 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=166)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 13.9% by absolute move · full history (n=166)
BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 32.5% by absolute move · full history (n=166)
ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 24.0% by absolute move · full history (n=50)
ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 20.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 37.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40)
SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40)
SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40)
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 30.40% | Available | 100% / 97% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| ETH | 35.49% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| SOL | 44.11% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 07 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 07 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
SOL · Available · Surface cutoff 07 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
A derived publication with no duplicated market data.
The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.