01 · Market read
The day across the three live Derivasys markets.
Ether led the 1W ATM IV increases, followed by Solana and Bitcoin. Solana recorded the largest 24-hour spot-index decline, ahead of Ether and Bitcoin. The differing rankings show that the shared skew shift accompanied divergent volatility and spot behavior across the complex. The largest spot decline and the largest 1W ATM IV increase therefore belonged to different constituents.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 20.81 vol points; absolute gap change +0.52 vol points. Historical percentile rank 57%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 3.97 vol points. Historical percentile rank 63%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
ETH stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.45 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.
This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.
Supporting cross-asset evidence
Options responses
Over the same reporting window, 24-hour spot-index returns fell in BTC, ETH, SOL. Separate one-week options moves in the table ranked at or above the 90th percentile of their own metric histories.
| Asset | Metric | 1W change | Own-history rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | RR25 | -3.14 vol pts | percentile rank 100.0% · n=30 |
| ETH | ATM IV | +8.90 vol pts | percentile rank 100.0% · n=30 |
Supporting news context
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01US Bitcoin ETFs shed $485M in biggest daily outflow since JuneCointelegraph ·
Canonical MCP category: institutional. Select Cointelegraph's cutoff-valid Bitcoin ETF-flow reporting. The Decrypt source is after the cutoff and cannot support selection or cutoff-valid corroboration.
- 02Ethereum’s Glamsterdam test runs near 200 million gas per block after upgradeCoinDesk ·
Canonical MCP category: protocol. CoinDesk reports an Ethereum test result; preserve test status and do not describe it as mainnet performance.
- 03Samsung Partners with Solana to Natively Deliver Stablecoins in Samsung Wallet to 82 Million U.S. Galaxy DevicesSolana Foundation ·
Canonical MCP category: market. Solana Foundation announces USDC transfers beginning in the last week of October; distinguish announced future rollout from current availability.
Cross-sectional thesis
Where the complex is diverging.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 20.81 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 3.97 vol pts across the complex.
SOL has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +11.53 vol points; BTC has the lowest at +5.29 vol points. The range between these spreads is 6.24 vol points.
Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.88 (25 observations).
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 56.7%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 63.3%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 80.0%.
1W ATM IV change
+3.45 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-12.00 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+3.39 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-5.21 points from the group median
Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | SOL · 57.54 | ETH · 48.73 | BTC · 36.73 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | ETH · 8.90 | SOL · 5.45 | BTC · 4.93 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | SOL · 11.53 | ETH · 10.50 | BTC · 5.29 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | SOL · -0.25 | BTC · -3.64 | ETH · -4.91 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | ETH · -4.91 | BTC · -3.64 | SOL · -0.25 |
| 24h spot performance | BTC · -2.83 | ETH · -5.65 | SOL · -7.23 |
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.
The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.
BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.3–3.4 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.
| Asset | 30d ATM IV | VIX spread | IV / VIX | 20d crypto RV | 20-session SPX RV | RV spread percentile | 30-session correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.82% | +19.74 vol pts | 2.31× | 41.35% | 10.24% | percentile rank 62.0% | +0.612 |
| ETH | 45.92% | +30.84 vol pts | 3.05× | 45.93% | 10.24% | percentile rank 31.6% | +0.566 |
| SOL | 51.17% | +36.09 vol pts | 3.39× | 70.90% | 10.24% | percentile rank 48.4% | +0.579 |
As of 07 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).
03 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 36.73% / +4.93 | 36.79% / +1.80 | 37.85% / +1.01 | 38.12% / +0.70 |
| ETH | 48.73% / +8.90 | 48.97% / +3.26 | 51.14% / +1.10 | 52.68% / +0.55 |
| SOL | 57.54% / +5.45 | 50.46% / -0.30 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
05 · Constituent evidence
Audit the independently published source artifacts.
08 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
Read the BTC report08 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
Read the ETH report08 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
Read the SOL reportEvidence, source data and methodology
Major Coins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
BTC 1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts · Δ -3.14 vol pts
ETH 1W RR25 -4.91 vol pts · Δ -1.12 vol pts
SOL 1W RR25 -0.25 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol pts
BTC percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH percentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Original report summary
Bitcoin 1W RR25 fell 3.14 volatility points, Ether 1W RR25 fell 1.12 volatility points and Solana 1W RR25 fell 0.97 volatility points, a coordinated shift toward puts since the prior daily cutoff. The shared skew direction accompanied divergent increases in 1W ATM implied volatility and different 24-hour spot-index declines across the three constituents.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 36.73% · Δ +4.93 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 48.73% · Δ +8.90 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 57.54% · Δ +5.45 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts · Δ -3.14 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -4.91 vol pts · Δ -1.12 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 -0.25 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol pts
Relative value: BTC 1W IV 36.73% / 7D RV 31.44% · spread +5.29 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 48.73% / 7D RV 38.23% · spread +10.50 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 57.54% / 7D RV 46.01% · spread +11.53 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 36.73% · Δ +4.93 vol ptspercentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W ATM IV 48.73% · Δ +8.90 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV 57.54% · Δ +5.45 vol ptspercentile rank 78.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts · Δ -3.14 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W RR25 -4.91 vol pts · Δ -1.12 vol ptspercentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W RR25 -0.25 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol ptspercentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 2.06 vol pts · Δ +0.48 vol ptspercentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W BF25 3.49 vol pts · Δ +1.06 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25 3.53 vol pts · Δ -0.09 vol ptspercentile rank 14.6% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
IV versus RV
BTC 1W IV 36.73% / 7D RV 31.44% · spread +5.29 vol pts
ETH 1W IV 48.73% / 7D RV 38.23% · spread +10.50 vol pts
SOL 1W IV 57.54% / 7D RV 46.01% · spread +11.53 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: BTC 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC; ETH 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC; SOL 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 78.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 40.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 14.6% by absolute move · full history (n=41)
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 31.44% | Available | 100% / 97% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| ETH | 38.23% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| SOL | 46.01% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
SOL · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
A derived publication with no duplicated market data.
The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.