01 · Market read
The day across the three live Derivasys markets.
Skew diverged across the constituents: Bitcoin and Ether 1W RR25 shifted toward calls, while Solana 1W RR25 shifted toward puts. All three 1W RR25 readings remained negative under the call-minus-put convention. The cross-asset 1W RR25 level range narrowed from 4.00 volatility points at the prior cutoff to 2.72 volatility points. Matching history for the shared ATM decline is unavailable.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 18.52 vol points; absolute gap change -3.24 vol points. Historical percentile rank 43%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 3.24 vol points. Historical percentile rank 57%. Stored daily changes across 3 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
BTC stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.11 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.
This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
Unavailable: 2 complete historical observations; at least 20 are required.
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: 2026-09-24T17:28:00+00:00 to 2026-09-27T19:05:00+00:00. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 1; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-24T17:28:00+00:00 to 2026-09-25T17:28:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 0c879a1dfc9162904575e7ee9d3c7a5708c7867aabb5ab6564608f9073aff214
invalidMeasurements: 58; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; duplicatePeriods: 2; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 1; incompatibleClocks: 2
ATM IV and RR25
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 15; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-09-25T17:28:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: c5ec40c158907f120f2598ca2b85beed039d6270fc1c7b2fde3795befdc83b21
invalidMeasurements: 4; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; duplicatePeriods: 20; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 5; incompatibleClocks: 20
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 1; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-24T17:28:00+00:00 to 2026-09-25T17:28:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: ecfc991c58e1f09f902233ecf8b4b74341d18f734c20b935feff583d19cf90d6
invalidMeasurements: 58; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; duplicatePeriods: 2; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 1; incompatibleClocks: 2
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +0.23 | +3.66 | +3.43 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 16 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
| ETH | +0.44 | +6.28 | +5.84 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 16 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
| SOL | -8.08 | +1.77 | +9.85 | inverted → upward-sloping; genuine sign crossing; materiality unavailable | 16 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
Per-asset history receipts
BTC: 51d49098b6ceda6982319940e7579bdaf67c0f41e2571136e457ceba10e43a1c
ETH: dd96ec0440a47f902006f863c1bae16bb46af945df1d09f3043a9cb63bf688fc
SOL: 114f541ecc4600d04a022acf66fc3fdaf6b3c533cefc205a791bfc73b5b17d95
Daily report context · 2026-10-09
Coordinated IV decline with broad spot gains
Report cutoff: . Comparison snapshot: .
Raw 24-hour spot signs: 6 higher, 1 lower, 0 exactly flat, 0 unavailable. 6 of seven moved higher.
With ±0.10% near-flat tolerance: 6 higher, 1 lower, 0 near-flat, 0 unavailable.
All seven 1W ATM IV daily changes
Volatility points
Current: 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Previous: 8 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Exact 24-hour spot-index returns
Percent
Current: 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Previous: 8 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
The seven-asset measurement meets the stored quantitative prerequisites. IV qualification requires a common nonzero direction and at least 1.00 volatility points in every asset; publication also depends on materiality and editorial checks.
Historical eligibility: 0 complete observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. Causality is not assessed.
Read the dated report and source evidence.
Event and source receipts
Event ID: market-wide-iv-spot-1808bed0978f36529708fe47520c79acfc1c3cd40b722076cc0f667001d431b6
Current source SHA-256: b95db5f31cafbcc6648b46e3be34774949b2074a707b37a98f62e78a46ee4448
Historical source SHA-256: 8d4c7b183f8bedaffc5f67a36876ed576531071c3b41c0fe561dd9c2aa02d566
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
invalidMeasurements: 32; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; incompatibleWindowLength: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Supporting news context
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01Thailand finalizes rules paving way for Bitcoin, Ether ETFsCointelegraph ·
Selected context attributed to Cointelegraph and The Block. Rules are reported to take effect October 16; do not imply funds launched in this window. Preserve MCP corroboration rather than infer independence. Source-backed typed category: spot_etf.
- 02Bitcoin, Ether ETFs’ October outflows swell toward $1BCointelegraph ·
Selected context, attributed to Cointelegraph as single-source reporting. Source-backed typed category: spot_etf; no options-market evidence or causal claim.
- 03Solana is about to halve its block times as final 200-millisecond upgrade nearsCoinDesk ·
Selected context, attributed to CoinDesk. Preserve prospective timing; do not state the upgrade completed or caused the IV decline.
Cross-sectional thesis
Where the complex is diverging.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 18.52 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 3.24 vol pts across the complex.
SOL has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +3.19 vol points; BTC has the lowest at +0.87 vol points. The range between these spreads is 2.32 vol points.
Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.88 (25 observations).
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 43.3%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 56.7%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 40.0%.
1W ATM IV change
+3.11 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
+9.78 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-2.36 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-1.49 points from the group median
Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | SOL · 49.63 | ETH · 39.85 | BTC · 31.11 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | BTC · -5.34 | ETH · -8.45 | SOL · -8.58 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | SOL · 3.19 | ETH · 2.36 | BTC · 0.87 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | SOL · -1.60 | BTC · -1.96 | ETH · -4.32 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | ETH · -4.32 | BTC · -1.96 | SOL · -1.60 |
| 24h spot performance | ETH · 3.31 | BTC · 2.30 | SOL · 1.85 |
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.
The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.
BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.3–3.5 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.
| Asset | 30d ATM IV | VIX spread | IV / VIX | 20d crypto RV | 20-session SPX RV | RV spread percentile | 30-session correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 35.75% | +20.34 vol pts | 2.32× | 34.81% | 10.14% | percentile rank 43.0% | +0.622 |
| ETH | 47.80% | +32.39 vol pts | 3.10× | 37.69% | 10.14% | percentile rank 13.7% | +0.580 |
| SOL | 53.96% | +38.55 vol pts | 3.50× | 55.36% | 10.14% | percentile rank 36.3% | +0.592 |
As of 08 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Crypto RV uses calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses US sessions and sqrt(252).
03 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 31.11% / -5.34 | 34.77% / -1.91 | 37.27% / -0.45 | 38.02% / -0.02 |
| ETH | 39.85% / -8.45 | 46.13% / -2.61 | 50.15% / -0.90 | 52.20% / -0.44 |
| SOL | 49.63% / -8.58 | 51.40% / +1.27 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
05 · Constituent evidence
Audit the independently published source artifacts.
09 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Read the BTC report09 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Read the ETH report09 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Read the SOL reportEvidence, source data and methodology
Major Coins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
BTC 1W ATM IV 31.11% · Δ -5.34 vol pts
ETH 1W ATM IV 39.85% · Δ -8.45 vol pts
SOL 1W ATM IV 49.63% · Δ -8.58 vol pts
All three constituent changes are shown; equal-weight mean Δ -7.46 vol pts.
BTC percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL percentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Original report summary
Bitcoin, Ether and Solana all recorded lower 1W ATM implied volatility: the equal-weight daily 1W ATM IV change was -7.46 volatility points against the October 8 cutoff. Bitcoin's daily 1W ATM IV change was -5.34 volatility points, versus Solana's -8.58 volatility points. Ether's larger decline also helped narrow the cross-asset level range, while skew adjustments differed across constituents.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.11% · Δ -5.34 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 39.85% · Δ -8.45 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 49.63% · Δ -8.58 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -1.96 vol pts · Δ +1.15 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -4.32 vol pts · Δ +0.59 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 -1.60 vol pts · Δ -0.69 vol pts
Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.11% / 7D RV 30.24% · spread +0.87 vol pts; ETH 1W IV 39.85% / 7D RV 37.49% · spread +2.36 vol pts; SOL 1W IV 49.63% / 7D RV 46.44% · spread +3.19 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 31.11% · Δ -5.34 vol ptspercentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W ATM IV 39.85% · Δ -8.45 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV 49.63% · Δ -8.58 vol ptspercentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -1.96 vol pts · Δ +1.15 vol ptspercentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W RR25 -4.32 vol pts · Δ +0.59 vol ptspercentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W RR25 -1.60 vol pts · Δ -0.69 vol ptspercentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 1.66 vol pts · Δ -0.33 vol ptspercentile rank 76.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W BF25 2.60 vol pts · Δ -0.89 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25 3.16 vol pts · Δ +0.05 vol ptspercentile rank 10.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
IV versus RV
BTC 1W IV 31.11% / 7D RV 30.24% · spread +0.87 vol pts
ETH 1W IV 39.85% / 7D RV 37.49% · spread +2.36 vol pts
SOL 1W IV 49.63% / 7D RV 46.44% · spread +3.19 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: BTC 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC; ETH 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC; SOL 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 76.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 33.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
SOL 1W BF25: percentile rank 10.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 30.24% | Available | 100% / 97% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| ETH | 37.49% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| SOL | 46.44% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
SOL · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
A derived publication with no duplicated market data.
The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.