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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options turn call-rich as volatility eases across the curve

BTC 1W ATM IV fell 0.22 volatility points; Skew moved toward calls (+1.72 vol points); partial native coverage (3/4 measurements) over the weekly window.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Generated · Window 12 Sept 2026–19 Sept 2026

No validated 7D spot-index returns are available; displayed spot-index returns remain 24h. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC

Generated timestamp:

  • BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 34.63%1W RR25 +1.25 vol pts1W BF25 Unavailable1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 12 Sept, 16:59 UTC to 19 Sept, 16:59 UTC.

Measured change since prior report

Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-09-12 edition is verified but ends at 12 Sept, 16:29 UTC; this window requires 12 Sept, 16:59 UTC.

A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.

Next weekly cutoff: measurable checks

These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 34.63 percent at . Current level 34.63; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 34.85 percent at . Current level 34.63; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.

Original legacy edition JSON · SHA-256 6fc4c4489c8beefaaf86195d946c93b196b51099f1bbf80d5914e76aad54b089

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/weekly/2026-09-12/9c201ddad5f66f6ecfdeff7cfd894bea7845ae74e1a59356705e9eb5181112ba.json · SHA-256 9c201ddad5f66f6ecfdeff7cfd894bea7845ae74e1a59356705e9eb5181112ba

Consumed endpoint proof: 57e9de651868f8e052cbca8f125ccdb7d1def7606af8b24503d67961ae3f96d2

  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-19T16:59:00+00:00 to 2026-09-26T16:59:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-19T16:59:00+00:00 to 2026-09-26T16:59:00+00:00.
Chart notes
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.

Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 6fc4c4489c8beefaaf86195d946c93b196b51099f1bbf80d5914e76aad54b089.

01 · Week in review

Macro · Crypto · Options

The week in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

These dated entries organise news across the calendar week. Related daily report links do not identify the stored reports reused in the weekly analysis; those inputs are listed separately.

No qualifying weekly context

Related daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Related daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Related daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Related daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Related daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

No headline tenor had comparable observations at both endpoints; unavailable values remain suppressed in the tables and charts.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC to 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.

Long end

Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.

Skew

RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.26 volatility points at 3M, to 36.75%.

Weekly universe roll: added 20SEP26, 21SEP26, 22SEP26, 23SEP26, 9OCT26; removed 13SEP26, 14SEP26, 15SEP26, 16SEP26, 18SEP26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

2OCT26, +5.33 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, +1.82 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

3M, -1.26 vol pts
04

Largest eligible SVI rho move

25JUN27, -0.1293 param
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

26MAR27, +0.1084 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W34.6334.85-0.22 vol pts-0.63%
2W34.9134.45+0.46 vol pts+1.34%
1M34.3435.39-1.05 vol pts-2.97%
3M36.7538.01-1.26 vol pts-3.31%
6M38.3439.23-0.89 vol pts-2.27%
9M39.5840.41-0.83 vol pts-2.05%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 09-15 to 09-16

1W, -5.93 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 09-16 to 09-17

1W, -4.05 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 09-17 to 09-18

1W, +3.97 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 09-15 to 09-16

2W, -3.57 vol pts
05

ATM IV · 09-16 to 09-17

2W, -3.11 vol pts
06

ATM IV · 09-12 to 09-13

1W, +2.94 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W28.57%38.55%9.98 vol pts3.23 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
2W30.38%37.06%6.68 vol pts2.91 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
1M32.31%36.89%4.58 vol pts1.81 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
3M36.03%38.56%2.53 vol pts1.49 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
6M37.75%39.49%1.74 vol pts0.93 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
9M39.09%40.43%1.34 vol pts0.81 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified
1Y39.79%41.01%1.22 vol pts0.93 vol ptsWithheld: history basis unverified

Daily report trail

The stored reports behind the weekly path.

7 stored daily report inputs; 8 separate surface observations. Calendar news-diary entries do not establish which daily reports were reused.

Daily reports qualify by their snapshot time inside the comparison window. A report published earlier on the first date can fall outside that window.

DateStored daily report inputLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
Bitcoin one-week volatility rises above recent realised movement1W: +3.33 vol pts to 38.10%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin’s front end eases as skew becomes less put-rich1W: -1.50 vol pts to 36.60%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin options turn defensive as one-month skew shifts toward puts1W: +1.20 vol pts to 39.43%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin one-week volatility posts a historically large reset1W: -6.73 vol pts to 36.61%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin one-week implied volatility resets below realised volatility1W: -7.15 vol pts to 29.56%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin’s two-week skew provides the sharper signal1W: +2.46 vol pts to 32.05%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 2.51 volatility points1W: +2.51 vol pts to 34.63%No sufficiently relevant context identified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.25-0.47+1.72 vol pts
2W1.16-0.66+1.82 vol pts
1M-0.62-0.79+0.17 vol pts
3M-1.24-0.53-0.71 vol pts
6M-1.00-0.70-0.30 vol pts
9M-0.75-0.65-0.10 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1WUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
2WUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
1MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
6MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
9MUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
25SEP265.6 days81,915.47+4480.58 USD34.41%+0.11 vol pts+1.65 vol ptsUnavailable
2OCT2612.6 days82,000.93+4502.64 USD35.04%+0.19 vol pts+2.45 vol ptsUnavailable
30OCT2640.6 days82,329.48+4554.03 USD34.22%-1.55 vol pts-0.44 vol ptsUnavailable
27NOV2668.6 days82,656.66+4581.79 USD36.01%-1.70 vol pts-0.61 vol ptsUnavailable
25DEC2696.6 days82,984.25+4585.26 USD36.88%-1.31 vol pts-0.65 vol ptsUnavailable
26MAR27187.6 days83,968.55+4633.24 USD38.39%-0.93 vol pts-0.29 vol ptsUnavailable
25JUN27278.6 days84,991.84+4639.57 USD39.63%-0.90 vol pts-0.10 vol ptsUnavailable

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

25SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
2OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

RV observation windows and sampling

The intraday RV comparison is unavailable. No detailed reason was recorded in this edition. No coverage policy was recorded; its thresholds cannot be established from another report.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)

Bitcoin two-week RR25 rose 1.82 volatility points to 1.16 volatility points, rotating the tenor from put-rich to call-rich over the week. At the same cutoff, Bitcoin front-end ATM IV averaged 34.63%, down 0.27 points, and Bitcoin long-dated ATM IV averaged 38.34%, down 0.89 points. The result is a skew rotation toward relative call-side volatility alongside lower implied-volatility levels.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-09-12 16:59:00 UTC → 2026-09-19 16:59:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
25SEP26+0.00750-0.00690-0.00130-0.00940-0.05040rotation towards calls, wing steepening
2OCT26+0.01970-0.01530+0.03740+0.01770-0.10160rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26-0.01800+0.00940-0.06970-0.07090+0.07360parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
27NOV26+0.01590+0.00130-0.08400-0.02800-0.07670parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
25DEC260.00000-0.00610-0.01110+0.00420+0.00100parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
26MAR27-0.06400+0.02720+0.00610-0.01510+0.10840parallel shift lower
25JUN27-0.03100+0.02130-0.12930-0.16020+0.03170parallel shift lower

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTCUnavailableUnavailablenot recorded / not recorded requirednot recorded / not recorded maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
7 stored daily report inputs, dated 13 September 2026, 14 September 2026, 15 September 2026, 16 September 2026, 17 September 2026, 18 September 2026, 19 September 2026. Surface observations and calendar news-diary entries are separate.
Original stored input methodology

The weekly edition reuses 7 validated daily reports from 2026-09-13 through 2026-09-19; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.

Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
Original wing convention
BF25 = (iv25Call + iv25Put) / 2 − ivAtm. Verified captured inputs supply the reader values; unavailable inputs remain unavailable.
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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