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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options turn call-rich as volatility eases across the curve

Bitcoin two-week RR25 rose 1.82 volatility points to 1.16%, leaving call volatility richer than put volatility despite lower front- and long-end ATM IV.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Window 12 Sept 2026–19 Sept 2026

Lead chart

BTC ATM implied-volatility term structure

33.6%35.5%37.4%39.3%41.1%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Week-end surface snapshot against the week-opening comparison snapshot.

Bitcoin two-week RR25 rose 1.82 volatility points to 1.16%, rotating the tenor from put-rich to call-rich over the week. At the same cutoff, Bitcoin front-end ATM IV averaged 34.63%, down 0.27 points, and Bitcoin long-dated ATM IV averaged 38.34%, down 0.89 points. The result is a skew rotation toward relative call-side volatility alongside lower implied-volatility levels.

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

The Federal Reserve issued its statement following the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

01 · Week in review

Macro · Crypto · Options

The week in markets.

Bitcoin two-week RR25 rose 1.82 volatility points to 1.16%, rotating the tenor from put-rich to call-rich over the week. At the same cutoff, Bitcoin front-end ATM IV averaged 34.63%, down 0.27 points, and Bitcoin long-dated ATM IV averaged 38.34%, down 0.89 points. The result is a skew rotation toward relative call-side volatility alongside lower implied-volatility levels.

No qualifying weekly context

Daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

No qualifying weekly context

Daily report

No qualifying macro or crypto event was retained for this diary date.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained.

Links identify the underlying reporting. Events are presented as context, not assigned causes.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 3M at -1.26 volatility points, to 36.75%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC to 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.27 volatility points to 34.63% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.34% (-0.89 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.54 volatility points to -0.09% across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.15% across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.26 volatility points at 3M, to 36.75%.

Weekly universe roll: added 20SEP26, 21SEP26, 22SEP26, 23SEP26, 9OCT26; removed 13SEP26, 14SEP26, 15SEP26, 16SEP26, 18SEP26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

2OCT26, +5.33 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, +1.82 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

3M, -1.26 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.30 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

25JUN27, -0.1293 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

26MAR27, +0.1084 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W34.6334.85-0.22 vol pts-0.63%
2W34.9134.45+0.46 vol pts+1.34%
1M34.3435.39-1.05 vol pts-2.97%
3M36.7538.01-1.26 vol pts-3.31%
6M38.3439.23-0.89 vol pts-2.27%
9M39.5840.41-0.83 vol pts-2.05%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 09-15 to 09-16

1W, -5.93 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 09-16 to 09-17

1W, -4.05 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 09-17 to 09-18

1W, +3.97 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 09-15 to 09-16

2W, -3.57 vol pts
05

ATM IV · 09-16 to 09-17

2W, -3.11 vol pts
06

ATM IV · 09-12 to 09-13

1W, +2.94 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W28.57%38.55%9.98 vol pts3.23 vol pts0.81 vol pts
2W30.38%37.06%6.68 vol pts2.91 vol pts0.73 vol pts
1M32.31%36.89%4.58 vol pts1.81 vol pts0.48 vol pts
3M36.03%38.56%2.53 vol pts1.49 vol pts0.21 vol pts
6M37.75%39.49%1.74 vol pts0.93 vol pts0.13 vol pts
9M39.09%40.43%1.34 vol pts0.81 vol pts0.11 vol pts
1Y39.79%41.01%1.22 vol pts0.93 vol pts0.16 vol pts

Daily report trail

The validated reports behind the weekly path.

This weekly edition reuses the stored headline, reader summary, news outcome and principal ATM fact from each published daily report inside the comparison window.

DatePublished daily reportLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
Bitcoin one-week volatility rises above recent realised movement1W: +3.33 vol pts to 38.10%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin’s front end eases as skew becomes less put-rich1W: -1.50 vol pts to 36.60%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin options turn defensive as one-month skew shifts toward puts1W: +1.20 vol pts to 39.43%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin one-week volatility posts a historically large reset1W: -6.73 vol pts to 36.61%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin one-week implied volatility resets below realised volatility1W: -7.15 vol pts to 29.56%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin’s two-week skew provides the sharper signal1W: +2.46 vol pts to 32.05%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 2.51 volatility points1W: +2.51 vol pts to 34.63%No sufficiently relevant context identified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.54 volatility points to -0.09% across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.25-0.47+1.72 vol pts
2W1.16-0.66+1.82 vol pts
1M-0.62-0.79+0.17 vol pts
3M-1.24-0.53-0.71 vol pts
6M-1.00-0.70-0.30 vol pts
9M-0.75-0.65-0.10 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.15% across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1W.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W2.071.77+0.30 vol pts
2W2.061.94+0.12 vol pts
1M1.902.09-0.19 vol pts
3M2.182.25-0.07 vol pts
6M2.522.60-0.08 vol pts
9M2.552.71-0.16 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
25SEP265.6 days81,915.47+4480.58 USD34.41%+0.11 vol pts+1.65 vol pts+0.11 vol pts
2OCT2612.6 days82,000.93+4502.64 USD35.04%+0.19 vol pts+2.45 vol pts+0.17 vol pts
30OCT2640.6 days82,329.48+4554.03 USD34.22%-1.55 vol pts-0.44 vol pts-0.38 vol pts
27NOV2668.6 days82,656.66+4581.79 USD36.01%-1.70 vol pts-0.61 vol pts-0.09 vol pts
25DEC2696.6 days82,984.25+4585.26 USD36.88%-1.31 vol pts-0.65 vol pts-0.13 vol pts
26MAR27187.6 days83,968.55+4633.24 USD38.39%-0.93 vol pts-0.29 vol pts-0.09 vol pts
25JUN27278.6 days84,991.84+4639.57 USD39.63%-0.90 vol pts-0.10 vol pts-0.16 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

25SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
2OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
25SEP26+0.00750-0.00690-0.00130-0.00940-0.05040rotation towards calls, wing steepening
2OCT26+0.01970-0.01530+0.03740+0.01770-0.10160rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26-0.01800+0.00940-0.06970-0.07090+0.07360parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
27NOV26+0.01590+0.00130-0.08400-0.02800-0.07670parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
25DEC260.00000-0.00610-0.01110+0.00420+0.00100parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
26MAR27-0.06400+0.02720+0.00610-0.01510+0.10840parallel shift lower
25JUN27-0.03100+0.02130-0.12930-0.16020+0.03170parallel shift lower

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
12 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
The weekly edition reuses 7 validated daily reports from 2026-09-13 through 2026-09-19; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.
Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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