01 · Week in review
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe week in markets.
These dated entries organise news across the calendar week. Related daily report links do not identify the stored reports reused in the weekly analysis; those inputs are listed separately.
Sunday 20 September to Tuesday 22 September: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.
CoinDesk covers quarterly options settlement
CoinDesk reported a quarterly Bitcoin options settlement and described the book as call-heavy.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
CoinDesk reported a $16 billion quarterly Bitcoin options settlement with a call-heavy book.
Bitcoin and treasury yields share the news
CoinDesk and Cointelegraph covered Bitcoin trading lower amid reports of elevated Treasury yields.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
No separate qualifying crypto event was selected for this date.
CoinDesk reports positive Bitcoin ETF flows
CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin ETF flows had returned to positive territory for the year.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive for 2026 after erasing a $5.8 billion deficit.
Saturday 26 September: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV
Model-derived and market-implied volatility.
Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.
37.89 vol points
Measurement 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC
At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag
36.57 vol points
Measurement 26 Sept 2026, 18:29:58 UTC
At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag
-1.31 vol points
As of 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.
Index evidence and methodology
DS30 · Source measurement 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices
BVIV · Source measurement 26 Sept 2026, 18:29:58 UTC; observed receipt 26 Sept 2026, 18:30:00 UTC; ingested 26 Sept 2026, 18:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel
BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"source": "market-context-mcp",
"type": "btc_volatility_context_latest",
"asset": "BTC",
"asOfTimestamp": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
"status": "available",
"ds30": {
"value": 37.887463123535106,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
"observedAt": null,
"ingestedAt": null,
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00"
},
"availability": null,
"methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices"
},
"bviv": {
"value": 36.573526219528,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-26T18:29:58+00:00",
"observedAt": "2026-09-26T18:30:00+00:00",
"ingestedAt": "2026-09-26T18:30:00+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 62,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00"
},
"availability": "streaming",
"methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel"
},
"bvivMinusDs30": {
"value": -1.3139369040071074,
"units": "volatility_points",
"status": "available",
"methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff"
}
}Source index JSON02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -3.87 volatility points, to 30.64%.
RV observation windows
The intraday RV comparison is unavailable. No detailed reason was recorded in this edition. No coverage policy was recorded; its thresholds cannot be established from another report.
03 · Catalyst check
19 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC to 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed surface analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.67 volatility points to 32.10% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.94% (-0.52 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.42 volatility points to -0.99 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.26 volatility points to 1.88 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -3.87 volatility points at 1W, to 30.64%.
Weekly universe roll: added 16OCT26, 24SEP27, 27SEP26, 28SEP26, 29SEP26, 30SEP26; removed 20SEP26, 21SEP26, 22SEP26, 23SEP26, 25SEP26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.