01 · Options Market Read
What the volatility surface did.
1W ATM IV rose 0.97 volatility points to 26.85%, a routine move at the 60th percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 29.09%, +0.47 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.12%, +0.22 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 0.61 points to 15.35 points. 2W RR25 moved 0.52 volatility points toward calls to -3.00%, leaving puts richer than calls. 2W BF25 fell 0.18 volatility points to 1.42%. The nearest eligible forward, 11AUG26, rose $55.31 (+0.09%) to $65,067.52. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data02 · Catalyst check
07 Aug 2026, 16:21 UTC to 08 Aug 2026, 16:21 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 event was retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
325 feed articles scanned across 13 feeds and 13 publishers. 36 fell inside the report window; 9 passed source relevance rules; 1 passed the final threshold; 1 event displayed.
03 · Detailed summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.47 volatility points to 29.09% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.21 volatility points to 41.12% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.26 volatility points to -3.52% across the six headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 1.95% across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.97 volatility points at 1W, to 26.85%.
Universe roll: added 12AUG26; removed 8AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
04 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
14AUG26, +1.03 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +0.97 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, +0.52 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, -0.18 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI sigma move
21AUG26, +0.1073 paramLargest eligible SVI rho move
30OCT26, -0.0452 param05 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 26.85 | 25.88 | +0.97 vol pts | +3.75% |
| 2W | 28.26 | 27.96 | +0.30 vol pts | +1.07% |
| 1M | 32.16 | 32.03 | +0.13 vol pts | +0.41% |
| 3M | 37.21 | 37.03 | +0.18 vol pts | +0.49% |
| 6M | 40.05 | 39.98 | +0.07 vol pts | +0.18% |
| 9M | 41.29 | 41.11 | +0.18 vol pts | +0.44% |
| 1Y | 42.20 | 41.84 | +0.36 vol pts | +0.86% |
06 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 2W.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.26 volatility points to -3.52% across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -2.48 | -2.74 | +0.26 vol pts |
| 2W | -3.00 | -3.52 | +0.52 vol pts |
| 1M | -3.85 | -4.19 | +0.34 vol pts |
| 3M | -4.04 | -4.39 | +0.35 vol pts |
| 6M | -4.01 | -4.17 | +0.16 vol pts |
| 9M | -3.84 | -3.91 | +0.07 vol pts |
| 1Y | -3.76 | -3.70 | -0.06 vol pts |
07 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 1.95% across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.26 | 1.32 | -0.06 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.42 | 1.60 | -0.18 vol pts |
| 1M | 1.93 | 1.93 | 0.00 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.26 | 2.25 | +0.01 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.45 | 2.41 | +0.04 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.40 | 2.41 | -0.01 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.36 | 2.42 | -0.06 vol pts |
08 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Smile rotation
9AUG26, +9.42 vol ptsSmile rotation
10AUG26, +3.41 vol pts09 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9AUG26Expiry effect | 0.7 days | 65,034.48 | +36.60 USD | 17.96% | -1.78 vol pts | +1.35 vol pts | +0.03 vol pts |
| 10AUG26Expiry effect | 1.7 days | 65,051.39 | +46.34 USD | 21.64% | +1.64 vol pts | +0.64 vol pts | +0.02 vol pts |
| 11AUG26 | 2.7 days | 65,067.52 | +55.31 USD | 23.34% | +1.60 vol pts | +0.10 vol pts | +0.04 vol pts |
| 14AUG26 | 5.7 days | 65,080.97 | +47.28 USD | 26.39% | +0.73 vol pts | +0.42 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
| 21AUG26 | 12.7 days | 65,141.79 | +57.97 USD | 27.69% | -0.11 vol pts | +0.58 vol pts | -0.26 vol pts |
| 28AUG26 | 19.7 days | 65,193.77 | +59.82 USD | 29.75% | -0.21 vol pts | +0.41 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 47.7 days | 65,392.82 | +63.15 USD | 33.75% | +0.07 vol pts | +0.37 vol pts | -0.03 vol pts |
| 30OCT26 | 82.7 days | 65,674.85 | +46.69 USD | 36.60% | +0.12 vol pts | +0.40 vol pts | -0.02 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 138.7 days | 66,123.99 | +33.59 USD | 39.23% | +0.11 vol pts | +0.15 vol pts | +0.05 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 229.7 days | 66,821.84 | +59.75 USD | 40.59% | +0.02 vol pts | +0.17 vol pts | +0.03 vol pts |
| 25JUN27 | 320.7 days | 67,494.9 | +43.62 USD | 41.83% | +0.28 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts | -0.05 vol pts |
10 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
11 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 30OCT26; the largest sigma change occurred at 21AUG26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9AUG26 | +0.01770 | -0.01460 | +0.15700 | +0.08040 | -0.17140 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 10AUG26 | +0.00770 | -0.00880 | +0.06700 | +0.03510 | -0.03780 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 11AUG26 | +0.00340 | -0.00500 | +0.02280 | +0.01160 | -0.01140 | wing steepening |
| 14AUG26 | -0.00840 | +0.00410 | -0.01100 | -0.01320 | +0.05570 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 21AUG26 | -0.01480 | +0.00290 | -0.02350 | -0.01050 | +0.10730 | rotation towards calls, wing flattening |
| 28AUG26 | -0.00270 | +0.00080 | -0.03850 | -0.02700 | +0.01420 | rotation towards calls |
| 25SEP26 | +0.01720 | -0.01430 | +0.02150 | +0.01400 | -0.04850 | rotation towards calls |
| 30OCT26 | -0.00010 | +0.00570 | -0.04520 | -0.05410 | -0.00630 | limited movement |
| 25DEC26 | +0.02670 | -0.01810 | +0.01160 | +0.03550 | -0.05420 | parallel shift higher |
| 26MAR27 | -0.01950 | +0.02630 | -0.02310 | -0.05620 | +0.00470 | limited movement |
| 25JUN27 | -0.02030 | +0.00010 | +0.00930 | -0.01160 | +0.05640 | parallel shift higher |
12 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
13 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 08 Aug 2026, 16:21 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 07 Aug 2026, 16:21 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
- News window
- 07 Aug 2026, 16:21 UTC to 08 Aug 2026, 16:21 UTC
- Feeds queried
- 13
- Publishers queried
- 13
- Feed articles scanned
- 325
- Inside report window
- 36
- Passed source rules
- 9
- Passed final threshold
- 1
- Event clusters displayed
- 1
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