01 · Market Read
The session in context.
1W RR25 moved 2.12 volatility points toward puts to -3.11%, leaving puts richer than calls; this was a large move at the 97th percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 29.57%, -0.69 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 40.83%, -0.39 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 0.29 points to 15.36 points. 2W ATM IV fell 0.95 volatility points to 29.25%. 3M BF25 rose 0.14 volatility points to 2.35%. The nearest eligible forward, 17AUG26, fell $433.14 (-0.68%) to $63,025.12. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data02 · Relevant Market Context
13 Aug 2026, 16:18 UTC to 14 Aug 2026, 16:18 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 event was retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
314 feed articles scanned across 13 feeds and 13 publishers. 44 fell inside the report window; 11 passed source relevance rules; 2 passed the final threshold; 1 event displayed.
03 · Detailed summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.69 volatility points to 29.57% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.39 volatility points to 40.83% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.55 volatility points to -3.77% across the six headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 2.02% across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.95 volatility points at 2W, to 29.25%.
Universe roll: added 18AUG26; removed 14AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
04 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
17AUG26, -15.94 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -2.12 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
2W, -0.95 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI rho move
17AUG26, -0.2336 paramLargest eligible SVI sigma move
28AUG26, +0.1573 paramLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
3M, +0.14 vol pts05 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 26.49 | 27.04 | -0.55 vol pts | -2.03% |
| 2W | 29.25 | 30.20 | -0.95 vol pts | -3.15% |
| 1M | 32.97 | 33.55 | -0.58 vol pts | -1.73% |
| 3M | 37.22 | 37.94 | -0.72 vol pts | -1.90% |
| 6M | 39.81 | 40.32 | -0.51 vol pts | -1.26% |
| 9M | 41.03 | 41.35 | -0.32 vol pts | -0.77% |
| 1Y | 41.85 | 42.11 | -0.26 vol pts | -0.62% |
06 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.55 volatility points to -3.77% across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -3.11 | -0.99 | -2.12 vol pts |
| 2W | -3.02 | -2.73 | -0.29 vol pts |
| 1M | -4.37 | -3.86 | -0.51 vol pts |
| 3M | -4.45 | -4.25 | -0.20 vol pts |
| 6M | -4.17 | -3.95 | -0.22 vol pts |
| 9M | -3.79 | -3.74 | -0.05 vol pts |
| 1Y | -3.49 | -3.54 | +0.05 vol pts |
07 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 3M.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 2.02% across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.51 | 1.53 | -0.02 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.58 | 1.63 | -0.05 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.03 | 1.92 | +0.11 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.35 | 2.21 | +0.14 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.39 | 2.35 | +0.04 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.33 | 2.36 | -0.03 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.27 | 2.32 | -0.05 vol pts |
08 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Smile rotation
15AUG26, -25.09 vol ptsSmile rotation
16AUG26, -20.52 vol pts09 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15AUG26Expiry effect | 0.7 days | 63,000.92 | -441.43 USD | 22.61% | -3.92 vol pts | -3.64 vol pts | -0.50 vol pts |
| 16AUG26Expiry effect | 1.7 days | 63,013.68 | -436.63 USD | 19.48% | -3.95 vol pts | -3.65 vol pts | -0.09 vol pts |
| 17AUG26 | 2.7 days | 63,025.12 | -433.14 USD | 21.91% | -1.99 vol pts | -3.01 vol pts | -0.11 vol pts |
| 21AUG26 | 6.7 days | 63,056.33 | -444.25 USD | 26.19% | -1.13 vol pts | -2.06 vol pts | -0.04 vol pts |
| 28AUG26 | 13.7 days | 63,108.63 | -451.72 USD | 29.12% | -1.23 vol pts | -0.13 vol pts | -0.07 vol pts |
| 4SEP26 | 20.7 days | 63,167.76 | -440.96 USD | 30.88% | -1.28 vol pts | -0.85 vol pts | +0.13 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 41.7 days | 63,329.49 | -453.33 USD | 34.20% | -0.39 vol pts | -0.22 vol pts | +0.08 vol pts |
| 30OCT26 | 76.7 days | 63,596.02 | -464.98 USD | 36.25% | -0.77 vol pts | -0.13 vol pts | +0.15 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 132.7 days | 64,034.09 | -462.32 USD | 38.80% | -0.78 vol pts | -0.34 vol pts | +0.10 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 223.7 days | 64,708.3 | -461.13 USD | 40.30% | -0.40 vol pts | -0.16 vol pts | +0.02 vol pts |
| 25JUN27 | 314.7 days | 65,382.51 | -438.58 USD | 41.46% | -0.30 vol pts | 0.00 vol pts | -0.02 vol pts |
10 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
11 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 17AUG26; the largest sigma change occurred at 28AUG26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15AUG26 | -0.01490 | -0.01070 | -0.19240 | -0.11950 | +0.27500 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 16AUG26 | +0.00840 | -0.00730 | -0.26130 | -0.09080 | -0.05780 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 17AUG26 | +0.00740 | -0.00870 | -0.23360 | -0.09500 | -0.02100 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 21AUG26 | -0.00750 | +0.00560 | -0.21830 | -0.09770 | +0.03880 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 28AUG26 | -0.03940 | +0.02650 | -0.13170 | -0.07100 | +0.15730 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 4SEP26 | -0.03650 | +0.02900 | -0.17160 | -0.09480 | +0.11760 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 25SEP26 | +0.00710 | -0.00200 | +0.00960 | +0.00820 | -0.03930 | limited movement |
| 30OCT26 | +0.02350 | -0.00860 | +0.03050 | +0.04780 | -0.08830 | parallel shift lower |
| 25DEC26 | +0.02060 | -0.02550 | +0.08430 | +0.12820 | -0.04400 | parallel shift lower |
| 26MAR27 | +0.06050 | -0.06300 | +0.09250 | +0.18370 | -0.07000 | parallel shift lower |
| 25JUN27 | +0.03500 | -0.04130 | +0.03990 | +0.09350 | -0.02530 | parallel shift lower |
12 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
13 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 14 Aug 2026, 16:18 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 13 Aug 2026, 16:18 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
- News window
- 13 Aug 2026, 16:18 UTC to 14 Aug 2026, 16:18 UTC
- Feeds queried
- 13
- Publishers queried
- 13
- Feed articles scanned
- 314
- Inside report window
- 44
- Passed source rules
- 11
- Passed final threshold
- 2
- Event clusters displayed
- 1
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