Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

BTC front-end volatility jumps as call-side skew strengthens

Name: BTC options surface changes for 2026-08-25
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

Front-end ATM IV rose most sharply, with 1W IV at 45.85% still below seven-day realised volatility; RR25 also moved towards calls.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 25 Aug 2026, 17:34 UTC · Snapshot 25 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC

Snapshot · 25 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC

BTCSpot-index 24h +3.73%1W ATM IV 45.85%1W RR25 +3.59 vol pts1W BF25 +2.89 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable

BTC1W ATM IV 45.85%Spot-index 24h +3.73%

Full snapshot readings

BTCSpot-index 24h +3.73%1W ATM IV 45.85%1W RR25 +3.59 vol pts1W BF25 +2.89 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +3.22 volatility points, to 45.85%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

News collection was incomplete; the retained events do not establish full coverage.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
Bitcoin tops $80,000, solana jumps 8% but rally now runs into overbought warningCoinDesk · 05:25 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 28AUG26: +2869.86 USD (+3.72%) to 79961.07 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship. MCP-measured 1h post-publication reaction: BTC spot +0.15%, ATM IV +0.08 points and RR25 -0.30 points; this is a timed association, not proof of causation.
Matched signals: Forward 28AUG26: +2869.86 USD (+3.72%) to 79961.07 USD; ATM IV 1W: up 3.22 points to 45.85%
02
Bitcoin ETFs add $338M as six-day inflow streak hits $2.26BCointelegraph · 07:38 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 28AUG26: +2869.86 USD (+3.72%) to 79961.07 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship. MCP-measured 1h post-publication reaction: BTC spot -0.59%, ATM IV -0.09 points and RR25 +0.31 points; this is a timed association, not proof of causation.
Matched signals: Forward 28AUG26: +2869.86 USD (+3.72%) to 79961.07 USD; ATM IV 1W: up 3.22 points to 45.85%

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 09:00 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 45.85%, 10.92 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 56.77%; 24-hour realised volatility was 58.95% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.90%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.47 volatility points to 43.07% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.72 volatility points to 42.31% across 6M and 1Y.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +1.38 volatility points to 2.00 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.14 volatility points to 2.87 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +3.22 volatility points at 1W, to 45.85%.

Universe roll: added 29AUG26; removed 25AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

25SEP26, +3.41 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +3.22 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1M, +2.03 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1Y, +0.51 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

28AUG26, +0.1963 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

25DEC26, +0.1282 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	45.85	42.63	+3.22 vol pts	+7.55%
2W	42.25	41.41	+0.84 vol pts	+2.03%
1M	41.12	40.76	+0.36 vol pts	+0.88%
3M	41.62	40.80	+0.82 vol pts	+2.01%
6M	42.13	41.48	+0.65 vol pts	+1.57%
9M	42.34	41.62	+0.72 vol pts	+1.73%
1Y	42.49	41.71	+0.78 vol pts	+1.87%

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1M.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +1.38 volatility points to 2.00 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	3.59	2.44	+1.15 vol pts
2W	3.76	2.58	+1.18 vol pts
1M	2.83	0.80	+2.03 vol pts
3M	1.30	-0.40	+1.70 vol pts
6M	0.44	-0.89	+1.33 vol pts
9M	0.20	-0.84	+1.04 vol pts
1Y	0.09	-0.78	+0.87 vol pts

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1Y.

BF25 increased, averaging +0.14 volatility points to 2.87 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	2.89	2.96	-0.07 vol pts
2W	2.98	3.02	-0.04 vol pts
1M	2.93	2.98	-0.05 vol pts
3M	2.86	2.64	+0.22 vol pts
6M	2.74	2.47	+0.27 vol pts
9M	2.76	2.38	+0.38 vol pts
1Y	2.81	2.30	+0.51 vol pts

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

2.0d

Smile rotation

27AUG26, -5.22 vol pts

1.0d

ATM IV change

26AUG26, +3.09 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
26AUG26Expiry effect	1.0 days	79,908.2	+2861.58 USD	46.74%	+3.09 vol pts	-1.19 vol pts	-0.77 vol pts
27AUG26Expiry effect	2.0 days	79,942.1	+2861.35 USD	46.26%	+2.35 vol pts	-2.14 vol pts	-0.50 vol pts
28AUG26	3.0 days	79,961.07	+2869.86 USD	46.39%	+2.47 vol pts	-0.91 vol pts	-0.35 vol pts
4SEP26	10.0 days	80,027.71	+2857.93 USD	43.49%	+1.48 vol pts	+0.70 vol pts	-0.12 vol pts
11SEP26	17.0 days	80,074.3	+2838.07 USD	41.71%	+0.79 vol pts	+1.58 vol pts	+0.02 vol pts
25SEP26	31.0 days	80,252.3	+2859.34 USD	41.10%	+0.36 vol pts	+2.13 vol pts	-0.07 vol pts
30OCT26	66.0 days	80,566.69	+2893.79 USD	41.04%	+0.99 vol pts	+1.90 vol pts	+0.14 vol pts
25DEC26	122.0 days	81,161.05	+2881.85 USD	42.00%	+0.66 vol pts	+1.60 vol pts	+0.30 vol pts
26MAR27	213.0 days	82,048.86	+2923.63 USD	42.17%	+0.65 vol pts	+1.25 vol pts	+0.25 vol pts
25JUN27	304.0 days	83,083.13	+3072.98 USD	42.40%	+0.74 vol pts	+0.98 vol pts	+0.44 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

26AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

27AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

28AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

4SEP26rotation towards calls

11SEP26rotation towards calls

25SEP26rotation towards calls

30OCT26rotation towards calls

25DEC26rotation towards calls

26MAR27rotation towards calls

25JUN27parallel shift higher

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

26AUG26

27AUG26

28AUG26

4SEP26

11SEP26

25SEP26

30OCT26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-08-24 09:00:00 UTC → 2026-08-25 09:00:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Original report summary

Front-end ATM IV rose most sharply, with 1W IV at 45.85% still below seven-day realised volatility; RR25 also moved towards calls.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 45.85% · Δ +3.22 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 3.59 vol pts · Δ +1.15 vol pts

Wings: BTC 1W BF25 2.89 vol pts · Δ -0.07 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 45.85% · Δ +3.22 vol ptspercentile rank 83.7% by absolute move · full history (n=123)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 3.59 vol pts · Δ +1.15 vol ptspercentile rank 80.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 2.89 vol pts · Δ -0.07 vol ptspercentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC Unavailable

Unavailable readings: BTC IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 83.7% by absolute move · full history (n=123)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 80.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25DEC26; the largest sigma change occurred at 28AUG26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
26AUG26	-0.04330	+0.01330	+0.06040	+0.06010	+0.31730	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
27AUG26	-0.03850	+0.01930	+0.05120	+0.03000	+0.21940	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
28AUG26	-0.03740	+0.01600	+0.04320	+0.01090	+0.19630	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
4SEP26	-0.01550	+0.00690	+0.04770	+0.00480	+0.07420	rotation towards calls
11SEP26	-0.01640	+0.01420	+0.01320	-0.02160	+0.05510	rotation towards calls
25SEP26	-0.01270	+0.00660	+0.04760	-0.01500	+0.04750	rotation towards calls
30OCT26	-0.00960	+0.01580	-0.01650	-0.04940	+0.00470	rotation towards calls
25DEC26	-0.03310	+0.01980	+0.12820	+0.06550	+0.04370	rotation towards calls
26MAR27	+0.01590	+0.00220	+0.03760	-0.00450	-0.05790	rotation towards calls
25JUN27	+0.03620	+0.00270	+0.07320	+0.04640	-0.12520	parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Vega25JUN27, 296.863086 USD / vol pt

Highest Gamma26AUG26, 0.000208 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay26AUG26, -398.311321 USD / day

Highest Vanna25JUN27, 0.001787 delta / vol pt

Highest Volga25JUN27, -26.204946 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	Unavailable	Unavailable	not recorded / not recorded required	not recorded / not recorded maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 25 Aug 2026, 09:00:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 25 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 24 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

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What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1M.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1Y.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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