01 · Weekly briefing
The week’s relative-value signal.
TRX one-week ATM implied volatility stood 1.97 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while AVAX one-week ATM implied volatility stood 15.32 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility at the October 3, 17:58 UTC cutoff. The cross-asset spread was 17.29 volatility points. These readings compare options-implied volatility with past price variability; they do not establish whether options are cheap or expensive. The level comparison captures current dispersion across the covered options markets. A prior implied-versus-realised spread is unavailable, so no widening or narrowing is asserted. The implied readings and realised estimates describe different measures of volatility; the gap alone does not establish a trading opportunity or a news catalyst.
02 · Options market read
Dispersion across the seven-market complex.
One-week ATM IV changes ranged from -11.93 vol pts in XRP to +0.99 vol pts in AVAX, a 12.92-point spread.
One-week ATM IV levels spanned 62.63 volatility points, with AVAX highest and TRX lowest.
03 · Catalyst check
No qualifying catalyst retained.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
04 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
| Asset | 1W ATM | Weekly ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | 1W RR25 | Weekly RR25 Δ | 1W BF25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 29.34% | -1.20 vol pts | 33.39% | -4.05 vol pts | -0.18 vol pts | +1.13 vol pts | 1.52 vol pts |
| ETH | 39.66% | -1.20 vol pts | 40.88% | -1.22 vol pts | -1.02 vol pts | +0.50 vol pts | 2.42 vol pts |
| SOL | 53.71% | -0.45 vol pts | 56.67% | -2.96 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts | -3.11 vol pts | 1.95 vol pts |
| XRP | 59.42% | -11.93 vol pts | 66.57% | -7.15 vol pts | +7.04 vol pts | +3.04 vol pts | 4.46 vol pts |
| HYPE | 55.90% | -3.75 vol pts | 66.41% | -10.51 vol pts | -1.50 vol pts | -5.42 vol pts | 2.16 vol pts |
| AVAX | 79.71% | +0.99 vol pts | 95.03% | -15.32 vol pts | +4.73 vol pts | -1.31 vol pts | 3.55 vol pts |
| TRX | 17.08% | -1.53 vol pts | 15.11% | +1.97 vol pts | -2.90 vol pts | +0.86 vol pts | 3.16 vol pts |
05 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards at the common cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · +79.71 | XRP · +59.42 | HYPE · +55.90 |
| Weekly 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · +0.99 | SOL · -0.45 | BTC · -1.20 |
| Largest absolute 1W ATM IV move | XRP · -11.93 | HYPE · -3.75 | TRX · -1.53 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · +1.97 | ETH · -1.22 | SOL · -2.96 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · +7.04 | AVAX · +4.73 | SOL · -0.01 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -2.90 | HYPE · -1.50 | ETH · -1.02 |
| 7d forward-proxy return | AVAX · +2.30 | TRX · 0.00 | SOL · -1.31 |
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +1.97 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -15.32 vol points. The range between these spreads is 17.29 vol points.
06 · Term structures
Supported ATM tenors only.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 29.34% / -1.20 | 33.36% / -0.31 | 36.52% / -0.56 | 37.49% / -0.47 |
| ETH | 39.66% / -1.20 | 46.43% / -0.74 | 50.97% / -0.61 | 53.05% / -0.60 |
| SOL | 53.71% / -0.45 | 53.23% / -1.41 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| XRP | 59.42% / -11.93 | 61.02% / -11.07 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 55.90% / -3.75 | 57.28% / -1.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 79.71% / +0.99 | 77.31% / +2.38 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| TRX | 17.08% / -1.53 | 17.72% / 0.00 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Unbracketed standard tenors are unavailable; the page does not display extrapolated surface values.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Original report summary
Across TRX and AVAX, the 1W ATM implied volatility minus 7D realised volatility comparison spanned 17.29 volatility points at the October 3 cutoff. This is a current cross-asset level comparison; a prior spread is unavailable, so it does not measure a change over time.
Data quality · 7d realised volatility
All assets have a recorded maximum-gap limit of 60 minutes. Availability and option-tenor support are separate checks.
| Asset | RV availability | Coverage status | Observed coverage | Minimum coverage | Largest gap | Gap limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Available | complete | 100.00% | 97% | 0 min | 60 min |
| ETH | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| SOL | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| XRP | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| HYPE | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| AVAX | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
| TRX | Available | complete | 100.00% | 99.5% | 0 min | 60 min |
07 · Methodology
Aligned, availability-aware weekly evidence.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot seven days earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Standard-tenor values are published only when listed expiries bracket the target on both endpoints; extrapolated values are suppressed.
Seven-day performance uses the nearest eligible listed forward available at both endpoints.