01 · Weekly briefing
The week’s relative-value signal.
The weekly split runs through the crypto options market rather than dividing majors neatly from altcoins. In Derivasys data, XRP topped the one-week ATM implied-volatility change ranking and Ether was last; AVAX also rose, while HYPE fell. AVAX retained the highest one-week ATM implied-volatility level, a distinction from leading the week's change. Options skew adds another point of comparison: XRP one-week 25-delta risk reversal rose 1.92 volatility points to 3.88, while Ether one-week 25-delta risk reversal fell 4.05 volatility points to -1.33. A risk reversal compares implied volatility on calls and puts. The available seven-day forward-proxy returns measure a separate form of performance, not spot returns. Reports concerning the XRP Ledger, Bitget and Treasury yields provide context without establishing a cause for the options divergence.
02 · Options market read
Dispersion across the seven-market complex.
One-week ATM IV changes ranged from -7.55 vol pts in ETH to +10.40 vol pts in XRP, a 17.95-point spread.
One-week ATM IV levels spanned 60.15 volatility points, with AVAX highest and TRX lowest.
03 · Catalyst check
Relevant context retained.
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Selected events and sources
- 01Bitcoin falls below $84K as 10-year Treasury yield hits 19-year highCointelegraph ·
Bitcoin traded near $83,200 as Fed hike odds reached about 75% and Treasury prepared a $6 billion buyback of long-dated bonds.
- 02Bitget Raises Hack Estimate To $387.5 Million As Token Accounting WidensThe Defiant ·
XRP and ether dominate the identified outflows. Withdrawals remain paused as the exchange adds Zcash and TRON assets to its accounting.
- 03XRP Ledger retries upgrade that lets banks split payment and compliance dutiesCoinDesk ·
XRP Ledger retries upgrade that lets banks split payment and compliance duties
04 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
| Asset | 1W ATM | Weekly ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | 1W RR25 | Weekly RR25 Δ | 1W BF25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 30.64% | -3.87 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | -1.12 vol pts | -3.10 vol pts | 1.64 vol pts |
| ETH | 40.91% | -7.55 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | -1.33 vol pts | -4.05 vol pts | 2.41 vol pts |
| SOL | 53.83% | -0.19 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.03 vol pts | -0.72 vol pts | 3.07 vol pts |
| XRP | 71.66% | +10.40 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.88 vol pts | +1.92 vol pts | 6.16 vol pts |
| HYPE | 59.38% | -6.72 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.97 vol pts | -0.65 vol pts | 4.05 vol pts |
| AVAX | 78.82% | +8.01 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | +5.85 vol pts | -6.22 vol pts | 5.25 vol pts |
| TRX | 18.67% | +0.26 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | -3.43 vol pts | -3.60 vol pts | 2.79 vol pts |
05 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards at the common cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · +78.82 | XRP · +71.66 | HYPE · +59.38 |
| Weekly 1W ATM IV change | XRP · +10.40 | AVAX · +8.01 | TRX · +0.26 |
| Largest absolute 1W ATM IV move | XRP · +10.40 | AVAX · +8.01 | ETH · -7.55 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · +5.85 | HYPE · +3.97 | XRP · +3.88 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -3.43 | ETH · -1.33 | BTC · -1.12 |
| 7d forward-proxy return | AVAX · +12.75 | SOL · +9.43 | XRP · +8.45 |
Comparable implied-versus-realised observations were not available across enough constituents for a complex-wide ranking.
06 · Term structures
Supported ATM tenors only.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 30.64% / -3.87 | 33.71% / -1.06 | 37.09% / +0.15 | 37.94% / -0.52 |
| ETH | 40.91% / -7.55 | 47.05% / -2.12 | 51.66% / -0.72 | 53.71% / -0.86 |
| SOL | 53.83% / -0.19 | 54.70% / +1.79 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| XRP | 71.66% / +10.40 | 72.72% / +14.36 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| HYPE | 59.38% / -6.72 | 59.36% / -4.12 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| AVAX | 78.82% / +8.01 | 74.87% / +16.35 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| TRX | 18.67% / +0.26 | 17.80% / -2.36 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Unbracketed standard tenors are unavailable; the page does not display extrapolated surface values.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Original report summary
Derivasys data show XRP one-week ATM implied volatility rising 10.40 volatility points to 71.66% over the seven days ending 26 September, while Ether one-week ATM implied volatility fell 7.55 volatility points to 40.91%. Across the crypto options comparison, the range between XRP and Ether one-week ATM implied-volatility changes was 17.95 volatility points. That range compares their moves during the week; it is not a change from an earlier week's range. Implied volatility describes the movement priced by options. Matching seven-day intraday realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable.
Data quality · 7d realised volatility
All assets have a recorded maximum-gap limit of 60 minutes. Availability and option-tenor support are separate checks.
| Asset | RV availability | Coverage status | Observed coverage | Minimum coverage | Largest gap | Gap limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Unavailable | unavailable | 99.31% | 97% | 67 min | 60 min |
| ETH | Unavailable | unavailable | 99.31% | 99.5% | 67 min | 60 min |
| SOL | Unavailable | unavailable | 99.31% | 99.5% | 67 min | 60 min |
| XRP | Unavailable | unavailable | 99.31% | 99.5% | 67 min | 60 min |
| HYPE | Unavailable | unavailable | 99.31% | 99.5% | 67 min | 60 min |
| AVAX | Unavailable | unavailable | 99.31% | 99.5% | 67 min | 60 min |
| TRX | Unavailable | unavailable | 99.31% | 99.5% | 67 min | 60 min |
The 7d realised-volatility window is unavailable where shown; this is a data-coverage result, separate from whether an option tenor is supported.
BTC · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
7d RV requires at least 97% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes. Failing rule: the 67-minute largest gap exceeds the 60-minute limit. Coverage evidence: 10,010 of 10,080 expected one-minute returns observed; 99.31% coverage; 68 missing price minutes; 2 missing intervals; 67-minute largest gap. Source: canonical/BTC-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes). Coverage policy: observed-minute-returns-v1. Fallback policy: Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.
ETH · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes. Failing rule: 99.31% coverage is below the 99.5% minimum; the 67-minute largest gap exceeds the 60-minute limit. Coverage evidence: 10,010 of 10,080 expected one-minute returns observed; 99.31% coverage; 68 missing price minutes; 2 missing intervals; 67-minute largest gap. Source: canonical/ETH-USD-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes). Coverage policy: observed-minute-returns-v1. Fallback policy: Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.
SOL · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes. Failing rule: 99.31% coverage is below the 99.5% minimum; the 67-minute largest gap exceeds the 60-minute limit. Coverage evidence: 10,010 of 10,080 expected one-minute returns observed; 99.31% coverage; 68 missing price minutes; 2 missing intervals; 67-minute largest gap. Source: canonical/SOL-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes). Coverage policy: observed-minute-returns-v1. Fallback policy: Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.
XRP · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes. Failing rule: 99.31% coverage is below the 99.5% minimum; the 67-minute largest gap exceeds the 60-minute limit. Coverage evidence: 10,010 of 10,080 expected one-minute returns observed; 99.31% coverage; 68 missing price minutes; 2 missing intervals; 67-minute largest gap. Source: canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes). Coverage policy: observed-minute-returns-v1. Fallback policy: Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.
HYPE · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes. Failing rule: 99.31% coverage is below the 99.5% minimum; the 67-minute largest gap exceeds the 60-minute limit. Coverage evidence: 10,010 of 10,080 expected one-minute returns observed; 99.31% coverage; 68 missing price minutes; 2 missing intervals; 67-minute largest gap. Source: canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes). Coverage policy: observed-minute-returns-v1. Fallback policy: Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.
AVAX · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes. Failing rule: 99.31% coverage is below the 99.5% minimum; the 67-minute largest gap exceeds the 60-minute limit. Coverage evidence: 10,010 of 10,080 expected one-minute returns observed; 99.31% coverage; 68 missing price minutes; 2 missing intervals; 67-minute largest gap. Source: canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes). Coverage policy: observed-minute-returns-v1. Fallback policy: Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.
TRX · 7d RV unavailable · Coverage evidence and recorded reason
7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes. Failing rule: 99.31% coverage is below the 99.5% minimum; the 67-minute largest gap exceeds the 60-minute limit. Coverage evidence: 10,010 of 10,080 expected one-minute returns observed; 99.31% coverage; 68 missing price minutes; 2 missing intervals; 67-minute largest gap. Source: canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes). Coverage policy: observed-minute-returns-v1. Fallback policy: Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.
07 · Methodology
Aligned, availability-aware weekly evidence.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot seven days earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Standard-tenor values are published only when listed expiries bracket the target on both endpoints; extrapolated values are suppressed.
Seven-day performance uses the nearest eligible listed forward available at both endpoints.