01 · Market Read
The session in context.
1W ATM IV rose 17.11 volatility points to 43.51%, an exceptional move at the 100th percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 41.61%, +12.06 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 43.03%, +2.18 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 15.44 points to 0.03 points. 1M RR25 moved 5.49 volatility points toward calls to 1.10%, leaving calls richer than puts. 2W BF25 rose 1.00 volatility points to 2.56%. The nearest eligible forward, 28AUG26, rose $13,934.18 (+22.07%) to $77,059.31. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has medium causal confidence.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data02 · Relevant Market Context
14 Aug 2026, 16:12 UTC to 21 Aug 2026, 16:12 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
344 feed articles scanned across 14 feeds and 14 publishers. 134 fell inside the report window; 31 passed source relevance rules; 6 passed the final threshold; 2 events displayed.
03 · Weekly summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +12.06 volatility points to 41.61% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +2.18 volatility points to 43.03% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +4.16 volatility points to 0.41% across the six headline tenors.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.55 volatility points to 2.57% across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +17.11 volatility points at 1W, to 43.51%.
Weekly universe roll: added 11SEP26, 22AUG26, 23AUG26, 24AUG26, 25AUG26; removed 15AUG26, 16AUG26, 17AUG26, 18AUG26, 21AUG26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.
04 · Seven-day ranking
Largest weekly surface events
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +17.11 vol ptsLargest eligible smile rotation
4SEP26, +14.44 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
1M, +5.49 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, +1.00 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI rho move
25JUN27, +0.3624 paramLargest eligible SVI sigma move
28AUG26, +0.0946 param05 · ATM volatility
Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 43.51 | 26.40 | +17.11 vol pts | +64.81% |
| 2W | 41.22 | 29.32 | +11.90 vol pts | +40.59% |
| 1M | 40.09 | 32.93 | +7.16 vol pts | +21.74% |
| 3M | 41.43 | 37.27 | +4.16 vol pts | +11.16% |
| 6M | 42.52 | 39.83 | +2.69 vol pts | +6.75% |
| 9M | 43.09 | 41.05 | +2.04 vol pts | +4.97% |
| 1Y | 43.54 | 41.87 | +1.67 vol pts | +3.99% |
06 · During the week
Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.
The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.
ATM IV · 08-18 to 08-19
1W, +8.80 vol ptsATM IV · 08-18 to 08-19
2W, +7.56 vol ptsATM IV · 08-20 to 08-21
1W, +5.21 vol ptsATM IV · 08-20 to 08-21
2W, +4.10 vol ptsRR25 · 08-18 to 08-19
1W, +3.62 vol ptsRR25 · 08-18 to 08-19
2W, +3.47 vol pts| Tenor | ATM IV low | ATM IV high | ATM IV range | RR25 range | BF25 range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 26.64% | 43.51% | 16.87 vol pts | 4.87 vol pts | 0.92 vol pts |
| 2W | 28.08% | 41.22% | 13.14 vol pts | 6.27 vol pts | 1.05 vol pts |
| 1M | 32.68% | 40.09% | 7.41 vol pts | 5.62 vol pts | 0.77 vol pts |
| 3M | 37.18% | 41.43% | 4.25 vol pts | 3.52 vol pts | 0.48 vol pts |
| 6M | 39.64% | 42.52% | 2.88 vol pts | 3.38 vol pts | 0.30 vol pts |
| 9M | 40.89% | 43.09% | 2.20 vol pts | 3.28 vol pts | 0.23 vol pts |
| 1Y | 41.73% | 43.54% | 1.81 vol pts | 3.16 vol pts | 0.26 vol pts |
Daily report trail
The validated reports behind the weekly path.
This weekly edition reuses the stored headline, reader summary, news outcome and principal ATM fact from each published daily report inside the comparison window.
| Date | Published daily report | Largest daily ATM move | News outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC options volatility eases as put-side skew firms | 2W: -0.95 vol pts to 29.25% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC front-end volatility firms as put-side skew deepens | 1W: +0.38 vol pts to 26.71% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC front-end volatility rises while longer-dated volatility and smile metrics remain steady | 1W: +0.88 vol pts to 27.12% | No sufficiently relevant context identified | |
| BTC volatility eases across the curve as skew shifts modestly toward calls | 2W: -0.58 vol pts to 28.74% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC options volatility rises across the curve as skew holds steady | 6M: +0.36 vol pts to 39.75% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC options volatility reprices sharply higher at the front end | 1W: +8.48 vol pts to 35.76% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC options reprice toward the front end as call-side volatility firms | 1W: +2.70 vol pts to 38.54% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst | |
| BTC options volatility rises as front-end pricing leads repricing | 1W: +4.73 vol pts to 44.02% | Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst |
07 · Skew and convexity
RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +4.16 volatility points to 0.41% across the six headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 1M. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.39 | -3.01 | +4.40 vol pts |
| 2W | 2.52 | -2.96 | +5.48 vol pts |
| 1M | 1.10 | -4.39 | +5.49 vol pts |
| 3M | -1.03 | -4.37 | +3.34 vol pts |
| 6M | -0.84 | -4.17 | +3.33 vol pts |
| 9M | -0.72 | -3.87 | +3.15 vol pts |
| 1Y | -0.68 | -3.58 | +2.90 vol pts |
BF25 increased, averaging +0.55 volatility points to 2.57% across the six headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 2W.
| Tenor | Week end (vol %) | Week start (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 2.29 | 1.51 | +0.78 vol pts |
| 2W | 2.56 | 1.56 | +1.00 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.78 | 2.03 | +0.75 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.75 | 2.35 | +0.40 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.66 | 2.39 | +0.27 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.50 | 2.35 | +0.15 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.40 | 2.32 | +0.08 vol pts |
08 · Listed expiries
Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward end (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV end | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28AUG26 | 6.7 days | 77,059.31 | +13934.18 USD | 43.74% | +14.54 vol pts | +4.14 vol pts | +0.70 vol pts |
| 4SEP26 | 13.7 days | 77,128.08 | +13943.00 USD | 41.30% | +10.54 vol pts | +6.59 vol pts | +0.87 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 34.7 days | 77,343.09 | +13991.46 USD | 40.07% | +5.86 vol pts | +5.34 vol pts | +0.66 vol pts |
| 30OCT26 | 69.7 days | 77,659.53 | +14045.26 USD | 40.51% | +4.20 vol pts | +3.44 vol pts | +0.42 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 125.7 days | 78,156.79 | +14100.72 USD | 42.25% | +3.43 vol pts | +3.19 vol pts | +0.31 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 216.7 days | 78,892.25 | +14163.30 USD | 42.61% | +2.29 vol pts | +3.39 vol pts | +0.27 vol pts |
| 25JUN27 | 307.7 days | 79,636.41 | +14234.58 USD | 43.29% | +1.81 vol pts | +3.02 vol pts | +0.12 vol pts |
06 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.
Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.
Weekly surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.
07 · SVI diagnostics
Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28AUG26 | -0.03310 | +0.02460 | -0.11140 | -0.13810 | +0.09460 | parallel shift higher, rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 4SEP26 | -0.02450 | +0.03490 | -0.14200 | -0.18980 | +0.01740 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 25SEP26 | -0.00850 | +0.02450 | -0.05410 | -0.12730 | -0.01870 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 30OCT26 | +0.01910 | -0.00660 | +0.23230 | +0.11050 | -0.06920 | rotation towards calls |
| 25DEC26 | +0.00210 | -0.01570 | +0.31470 | +0.20650 | +0.00770 | rotation towards calls |
| 26MAR27 | +0.04380 | -0.03560 | +0.33350 | +0.23450 | -0.07850 | rotation towards calls |
| 25JUN27 | +0.05230 | -0.07470 | +0.36240 | +0.33390 | -0.02040 | rotation towards calls |
08 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.
- Week-end snapshot
- 21 Aug 2026, 16:12 UTC
- Week-opening snapshot
- 14 Aug 2026, 16:12 UTC
- Comparison
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Snapshot selection
- The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
- Daily report inputs
- The weekly edition reuses 8 validated daily reports from 2026-08-14 through 2026-08-21; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.
- Calculations and commentary
- Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Causal claims
- The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.
This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.
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