ETH’s front-end implied volatility rose modestly into the cutoff, while longer-dated ATM IV eased and the term structure flattened. The largest standard-tenor movement was a routine 2W increase, and 3M RR25 moved toward relative call-side volatility. A BitMine treasury update was published within the window, but its timed reaction does not demonstrate that it caused the observed end-of-window surface configuration.
Ether rose 1.61 per cent over the 24-hour window and, unlike Bitcoin, drew a clearer response from short-dated options. One-week implied volatility gained 1.97 points to 45.25 per cent, although it still sat below seven-day realised volatility. Calls also became relatively richer and butterfly convexity increased. Sber’s collateral plans supplied relevant institutional context, but the observed market reaction was too small to support a causal claim.
Ether fell 2.54 per cent over the 24-hour window, underperforming Bitcoin as markets continued to digest Kevin Warsh’s warning that stubborn inflation could require higher US rates. Two-week implied volatility fell 2.73 points to 45.15 per cent and one-week risk reversal swung towards puts. One-week implied volatility remains well below seven-day realised volatility, while a brief Kraken funding delay was resolved during the session without evidence that it drove the broader repricing.
Ether fell 3.15 per cent over the 24-hour window even as exchange-traded funds recorded $226mn of inflows, their strongest daily haul in ten months. Kevin Warsh’s inflation warning kept the broader policy backdrop restrictive. In options, one-week implied volatility fell 6.83 points to 46.04 per cent and remained below realised volatility across the 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day windows, while short-dated skew swung towards puts.
