A permanent record of ATM volatility, skew, convexity and fitted-smile changes. BTC, ETH and SOL have individual daily coverage, with separate major-coin and altcoin comparisons; BTC also has a weekly edition.
BTC’s front end firmed into the 20:58 UTC cutoff, while the long end was largely unchanged and the curve flattened. The largest standard-tenor move was a routine 1W ATM IV increase, but 2W RR25 moved notably toward relative call-side volatility. Collected news supplied contemporaneous macro and crypto developments, yet the available reaction evidence does not establish a direct explanation for the closing repricing.
ETH’s front-end implied volatility rose modestly into the cutoff, while longer-dated ATM IV eased and the term structure flattened. The largest standard-tenor movement was a routine 2W increase, and 3M RR25 moved toward relative call-side volatility. A BitMine treasury update was published within the window, but its timed reaction does not demonstrate that it caused the observed end-of-window surface configuration.
SOL saw the session’s most pronounced surface move among the major coins: 1W ATM IV fell 5.10 points and front-end IV declined 4.51 points on average. RR25 moved toward relative put-side volatility, while remaining call-rich, and near-term convexity fell. A report on cancelled SOL supply was available in the window, but reaction data are partial and do not establish causation for the broad compression.
XRP forward -0.71% and one-week ATM IV +0.30 points; HYPE forward +3.31% and one-week ATM IV -4.99 points; AVAX forward -2.17% and one-week ATM IV -7.29 points; TRX forward -2.94% and one-week ATM IV -4.19 points.
Bitcoin rose 1.55 per cent over the 24-hour window, but the options market did not chase the move: one-week implied volatility added only 0.19 points and one-month volatility slipped. Skew became less defensive, while seven-day realised volatility remained above the one-week implied measure. The news backdrop offered useful institutional and on-chain context, though neither item provides a convincing explanation for the restrained repricing.
Ether rose 1.61 per cent over the 24-hour window and, unlike Bitcoin, drew a clearer response from short-dated options. One-week implied volatility gained 1.97 points to 45.25 per cent, although it still sat below seven-day realised volatility. Calls also became relatively richer and butterfly convexity increased. Sber’s collateral plans supplied relevant institutional context, but the observed market reaction was too small to support a causal claim.
Solana delivered the strongest spot move of the three major-coin reports, rising 3.02 per cent over the 24-hour window. One-week implied volatility climbed 2.56 points to 72.36 per cent and two-week risk reversal swung 4.02 points towards calls. The surface stayed inverted and seven-day realised volatility remained higher than one-week implied volatility. No sufficiently relevant Solana headline was found, so the report leaves the repricing unattributed.
XRP forward not yet comparable and one-week ATM IV not yet comparable; HYPE forward +1.96% and one-week ATM IV -2.02 points; AVAX forward not yet comparable and one-week ATM IV not yet comparable; TRX forward not yet comparable and one-week ATM IV not yet comparable. AVAX and TRX are shown with current levels only because their production histories began less than 24 hours before the cutoff. The candidate XRP baseline failed the plausibility check and was excluded rather than reported as a market move.
Bitcoin fell 1.76 per cent over the 24-hour window as the market continued to digest Kevin Warsh’s warning that inflation could require tighter policy. The options response was more nuanced than the spot move: one-week implied volatility fell 3.69 points to 32.85 per cent, while two-week risk reversal moved sharply towards puts. One-week implied volatility now sits below seven-day realised volatility but above the quieter 24-hour measure, leaving the curve steeper rather than uniformly subdued.
Ether fell 2.54 per cent over the 24-hour window, underperforming Bitcoin as markets continued to digest Kevin Warsh’s warning that stubborn inflation could require higher US rates. Two-week implied volatility fell 2.73 points to 45.15 per cent and one-week risk reversal swung towards puts. One-week implied volatility remains well below seven-day realised volatility, while a brief Kraken funding delay was resolved during the session without evidence that it drove the broader repricing.
Solana rose 0.87 per cent over the 24-hour window even as one-week implied volatility fell 1.58 points and call-relative skew strengthened. The broader backdrop remained cautious after renewed inflation warnings, while a contained exploit involving an outdated Solana contract affected 1,685 Rain card users; neither event provides a sufficiently direct explanation for the options repricing.
Bitcoin ended the session below $80,000 as investors absorbed Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole address and a $6.4bn options expiry. The Federal Reserve chair offered little encouragement to those looking for an early easing signal, while the derivatives settlement removed a sizeable block of open interest. Against that backdrop, one-week implied volatility fell sharply and slipped below seven-day realised volatility, leaving the surface steeper rather than uniformly cheaper.
Ether fell 3.15 per cent over the 24-hour window even as exchange-traded funds recorded $226mn of inflows, their strongest daily haul in ten months. Kevin Warsh’s inflation warning kept the broader policy backdrop restrictive. In options, one-week implied volatility fell 6.83 points to 46.04 per cent and remained below realised volatility across the 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day windows, while short-dated skew swung towards puts.
Bitcoin’s week was shaped by a renewed institutional bid, an abrupt change in the US rates narrative and a large derivatives expiry. Treasury plans for bigger bond buybacks helped weaken the dollar and revive the debasement trade, while strong ETF inflows carried Bitcoin through $80,000. Inflation data and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut later restored some policy caution. The options market traced the same unsettled path: front-end volatility rose sharply, reversed just as quickly and ended the week 8.75 points lower at the one-week tenor.
Front-end ATM IV fell sharply, while relative put-side volatility increased modestly and implied volatility remained below seven-day realised volatility.
ATM volatility declined at both the front and long ends, while RR25 shifted modestly toward puts and 1W implied volatility remained below seven-day realised volatility.
Front-end ATM IV rose sharply, with 1W IV reaching 44.02%, close to seven-day realised volatility of 44.90% but well below the 24-hour rate of 74.18%; RR25 moved toward calls and BF25 increased.
Across the six headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +7.45 volatility points, RR25 +4.16 volatility points and BF25 +0.55 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
Across the six headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.48 volatility points, RR25 +0.02 volatility points and BF25 +0.04 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
Front-end ATM IV fell 1.44 volatility points on average, led by a 2.11-point decline at 1W, while long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged and RR25 moved modestly toward calls.
Across the six headline tenors, ATM IV averaged -1.86 volatility points, RR25 +0.76 volatility points and BF25 -0.19 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
Daily reports from 18 July 2026 pair the measured surface change with a readable news briefing and links to the original collected stories. Earlier editions preserve surface analysis without retroactively implying news coverage.
